RotoViz subscribers know that winning often hinges on meticulous analysis of various factors: player statistics, team dynamics, and even the whims of Mother Nature herself. Weather conditions, often overlooked, can play a pivotal role in any game’s outcome. A few of the most well-known and craziest examples include the Fog Bowl, the Tuck Rule Game, and the Ice Bowl.
The NFL is unique in its willingness to embrace the elements, with most of its venues exposed to all weather conditions, which can dramatically impact fantasy football production. Any NFL enthusiast has seen quarterbacks skillfully navigating needle-narrow gusts while kickers combat cascading snowflakes during the chill of winter. Football allows for anything except lightning, and severe weather conditions may have a sizable impact on a game but can go completely unnoticed by even the best projections beforehand. So, keeping one eye on the coming weather heading into the weekend can be valuable.
For this report, I wanted to recognize the nuanced impact that precipitation, snow, wind, and temperature variations can have on fantasy football outcomes. I didn’t want to exaggerate or speak too anecdotally about these effects. These were my primary sources: “How Weather Can Impact NFL Games and Football” by Fox Weather (2022), “Weather and the NFL” by Rory Houghton-Berry, Edwin Park, and Kathy Pierce of Stanford (2016), “How Weather Affects Betting” by Covers.com (2023), and “Analyzing the Effect of Weather in the NFL” by The Spax (2020). Based on these sources, game predictions are compared to predetermined thresholds and ranges, and my opinions have been mostly disregarded. All forecasts are from The Weather Channel.
GAMES THAT WILL BE PLAYED IN DOMES
Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m. Sunday – Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m. Sunday – U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals, 4:25 p.m. Sunday – State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:20 p.m. Sunday – Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
GAMES EXPECTED TO BE PLAYED IN EXCELLENT WEATHER CONDITIONS
Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m. Sunday – GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO – Expected temps between 77-80°, 2-4% chance of precipitation (0.00 in/hr expected), wind NW-NNE @ 4-6 MPH (as of 10:24 p.m. Friday). Sunday Update: No significant changes
Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals, 8:15 p.m. Monday – Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH – Expected temps between 67-73°, 5-12% chance of precipitation (0.00 in/hr expected), wind E-ENE @ 4-5 MPH (as of 10:26 p.m. Friday). Sunday Update: No significant changes
