Bjorn Yang Vaernet examines which players on the waiver wire are worth prioritizing for Week 2 and highlights others to preemptively stash.
Week 1 of the NFL season evoked a range of emotions ranging from sadness about J.K. Dobbins going through another major injury (torn Achilles) to joy watching the back-and-forth scoring affair between the Miami Dolphins and the Los Angeles Chargers. However, the main feeling I had was excitement that the season had finally started.
Now that the season is underway, the waiver wire will once again be one of the most important tools that fantasy managers have to alter their rosters. Week 1 already brought a slew of injuries and surprises, and this article will help you navigate those situations and narrow down which players to target. With that, let’s look at some of the players to pick up for Week 2.
The waiver wire is one of the most important pieces of season-long draft leagues. It is the easiest way to acquire new players, and every year there are gems to be found. This article aims to identify weekly breakout players and suggest preemptive pickups.
This article will only reference players that are less than 50% owned in ESPN leagues. The players are categorized by position group and within each group is the order of how I would prioritize them.
Quarterback
Jordan Love (Available in 84% of ESPN leagues)
The Packers played about as run-heavy as most people thought coming into the year — 57% of their first and second downs were rush attempts. However, Jordan Love was able to capitalize on his limited attempts by throwing two red zone TDs and watching Aaron Jones score a long TD on a short pass up the middle.
While it will be hard to count on such a high TD-to-pass attempt rate, Love can mitigate some of the regression by simply completing more passes. Next Gen Stats calculated that Love had a -12.3% completion percentage over expected (CPOE). While Love may not be that good, it is likely that Love will not be that bad every game — zero QBs (among the 40 qualifying QBs) had a -10% CPOE by season end and only four had worse than a -5% CPOE over a large sample.
The Packers have several matchups in the coming weeks that could push the Packers to pass more — Week 3 against the Saints and Week 4 against the Lions. The Week 2 matchup against the Falcons isn’t great from a game environment standpoint (both run-heavy teams), but Love has the ability to beat that defense. Love has one of the easiest schedules over the next three weeks, according to the Strength of Schedule Streaming App.
Running Back
Kenneth Gainwell (Available in 78% of ESPN leagues)
After debating how the Philadelphia Eagles would split up their backfield all offseason, fantasy players finally got our answer.
- Rashaad Penny was a healthy inactive
- D’Andre Swift was the backup
- Kenneth Gainwell was the lead RB
Gainwell was a three-down player for the Eagles, playing on 62% of snaps. In a close game script, he touched the ball 18 times, including catching all four of his targets. While the end result was not very impressive (11.4 PPR fantasy points) his usage indicates that some big games are on the horizon. If healthy, Gainwell is a plug-and-play waiver wire add. However, Gainwell popped up with a rib injury on Monday (Eagles play on Thursday night). Monitor the news for any updates before waivers run on Tuesday evening.
The graphic below is the production Miles Sanders had in 2022 with a similar role in the Eagles’ offense.
Joshua Kelley (Available in 89% of ESPN leagues)
Joshua Kelley is a strong waiver wire add this week because of his standalone value in a strong offense. Kelley was the undisputed RB2 on the Chargers in Week 1. He played on 48% of snaps — nearly matching Austin Ekeler — and was given 16 carries and one target. Kelley also spelled Ekeler near the red zone in a late-third quarter drive and ran in a TD from 2 yards out.
While Kelley’s production was somewhat of a product of the Dolphins’ poor run defense, I’d expect his underlying usage to remain constant as the Chargers have never seemed inclined to push Ekeler into a bigger role than he has had. Kelley can be played right off the waiver wire if needed and carries big upside in the event of an Ekeler absence.
Notably, Ekeler was a non-participant in Monday’s practice with an ankle injury.