Shawn’s 2023 Draft Plan: 39 Priority Targets and How to Play Every Position in a Wild ADP Environment
Image Credit: Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Brandon Aiyuk.

Shawn Siegele breaks down his philosophy for 2023 drafts by position group and highlights his 39 priority targets.

We had a lot of great content over the weekend, with Mat Irby providing his home league targets at RB and WR, Curtis Patrick detailing how to execute Hero RB and which players to select, and Bjorn Yang-Vaernet exploring the 5 Situations in Rounds 1 or 2 That Will Make or Break Your Drafts.

These pieces are a great complement to our full suite of best tools and workshops.

And much, much more from those authors, plus my 2023 Best Ball Workshop.

In today’s exercise, I’m looking at the redraft environment with my full draft plan to the 2023 redraft season and the links and shows to help you find all of the detailed evidence in favor of these selections. The 2023 Home League Draft Plan came out last week, and we’ll compare and contrast some of those options with the high-stakes plan at the end of the article.

The Grades

  • Priority: These are the players I have the most exposure to. We’re not going to completely ignore ADP – getting the double value when these players fall is an extra boost – but they tend to be either foundation players (early) or multiple-round values.
  • Target: These aren’t must-draft selections, but they end up on a lot of my rosters and offer a good relationship of price to upside. In many cases the lack of a priority tag will relate to either price or some level of elevated bust risk.
  • When Falls: These are the players I’m sprinkling in occasionally, and will draft if they fall substantially below ADP. In most cases these are players who still fit most builds, but they’re trendy enough that drafters are already buying one of the upside scenarios.
  • In Emergency: This tag fits players who aren’t actual targets and aren’t value candidates as much as emergency plays later in drafts if you find your board is empty at a position of need. In redraft, it’s tough to get in a true emergency situation since FA can be used to address unbalanced rosters.
  • If Flat: Sometimes QBs become solid plays if you don’t like the values at other positions. I’ll have some exposure to “if flat” QBs even if they’re not my top targets. Of course, at the QB position, even the “priority” picks are really only targets if you don’t like the values at other positions.
  • No Tags: I’m not drafting the players left without a designation. It’s inevitable that a few of these players will hit, but I’m avoiding them because their risk/reward profiles will hurt you badly over time. These tend to be players who are being drafted due to workload projections that aren’t backed up by corresponding talent. In a few cases, the players do have the talent but sport a risk/reward profile that breaks structural rules in the current ADP environment. I’ll discuss that a little more in the Takeaways section.

Want to build a draft exclusively from the players who could make a massive jump? Make sure to check out our Stealing Bananas episodes projecting Round 1 and Round 2 of 2024 redraft leagues. 

Below I have the evidence for my player selections sorted into themes that make it easier for you to structure your research. If you’re already set, jump directly into the 2023 Draft Plan and Priority Targets.

The Zero RB Series

THE RB PRIORITY TARGETS

Running backs are out of fashion, but are we getting a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity?

THE WR DISCOUNT/BREAKOUT SUPER BLEND SERIES

Or take a look at the 2023 draft plans . . .

THE DRAFT SERIES

39 Priority Targets to Help You Win the FFPC Main Event or Take Down Your Home League This Weekend

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Shawn Siegele

Author of the original Zero RB article and 2013 NFFC Primetime Grand Champion. 11-time main event league winner. 2015, 2017, 2018 titles in MFL10 of Death.

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