Bjorn Yang-Vaernet examines the situations for five players going in Rounds 1 and 2 to see if there is more hidden downside or upside than the market is pricing in.

Last year I wrote a same-style article to dive deeper into player situations that many drafters were blindly accepting or were not aware of at all. Among the fantasy situations that I questioned were:

• Would Aaron Jones pay off his Round 2 draft capital being in a timeshare?
• How effective Tom Brady would be behind three new interior OL starters?
• Would Joe Burrow and the Bengals WRs have enough volume to pay off their ADPs?

Like all fantasy analysis, some results were spot on, others were wrong, and many were inconclusive due to injury. 

Regardless, I believe taking a step back and having humility on player/team takes will always be part of a good process. If the outcome of a situation breaks the opposite way of what I was expecting, I want to be aware that the outcome was something I already considered.

Since nearly all the preseason games have wrapped up as of writing, this is the perfect time to look at the key fantasy situations in 2023 before best ball season finishes and the all-important home league drafts take place. This year’s article will focus on Round 1 and 2 players like Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb, and Calvin Ridley.

The players listed below are roughly in order of their Underdog ADP.

Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey has been the consensus RB1 all offseason. While McCaffrey checks nearly all the theoretical boxes for being the overall RB1: team environment, pass game role, and efficiency, there is an elevated risk in his playing time and volume “boxes”.

At first glance, McCaffrey’s playing time seems great. He played on 73% of snaps between Week 8 and Week 18 in 2022 and averaged 21.4 opportunities — rush attempts and targets — in this time span.^[1]Week 7 was excluded because McCaffrey was traded just a couple of days prior and was in the game for only select situations 

However, segmenting out McCaffrey’s usage with Elijah Mitchell healthy and not, paints a different picture. McCaffrey didn’t play more than 70% of snaps in any game that Mitchell was active. In contrast, he averaged an 80% snap rate with Mitchell inactive.

In terms of usage, McCaffrey was not an RB1 with Mitchell on the field, averaging 15.3 PPR fantasy points on 10.5 rush attempts and 5.5 targets. Mitchell even took some goal line work, which may be the biggest negative. Conversely, McCaffrey was uber-productive without Mitchell, averaging 28.2 fantasy points and 25 opportunities per game.

I’m not saying McCaffrey is not worth picking early in Round 1, but there is probably more risk than drafters are letting on, especially playing for a 49ers team that wants to keep their star players healthy for a deep postseason run. That being said, if McCaffrey does end up hitting his ceiling outcome, he would likely distance himself by leaps and bounds over any other player and that alone is worth a lot when all the prizes (for best ball and managed leagues) require a high-end finish.