Fantasy football discussions are often marred by misinformation and skewed comparisons. A recent viral tweet comparing the average salaries of NFL kickers to those of running backs is a prime example.
Can someone please explain this? pic.twitter.com/e9XgywpOF9
— Dez Bryant (@DezBryant) July 18, 2023
This tweet exploded as part of the current discourse over a potential NFL running back holdout. It was shared by seemingly half the current and former star backs. While it may be true that kickers earn more on average, this analysis is flawed and misleading. We’ll dissect the real significance behind the salary comparison and shed light on why exceptional NFL running backs hold more value to teams than their kicker counterparts.
Demystifying the Salary Disparity
The graphic Dez Bryant put out comparing kicker and running back salaries misses a crucial factor: the effect size of rostered players. The sheer number of running backs rostered in the league, compared to kickers, skews the average salary comparison. This statistical phenomenon, known as Kurtosis or skewness, reveals the flawed nature of the analysis and emphasizes the need to look beyond surface-level numbers when assessing the value of these players to their respective teams.
Yes, Bryant is correct that the average kicker makes more money than the average RB. The problem is that from 2020 to 2022 in my sample there were 540 RBs under contract compared to just 149 Kickers. The mistake that Bryant and many others made here is assuming that the contracts create a normal distribution or bell curve. If you take a look at the two charts above, you will see that neither are bells.
Using the statistical measures of kurtosis and skewness we can conclude that these are both actually gamma distributions. In layman’s terms it means that the pay is asymmetrical between the upper and lower tier of NFL players. This is the case for all positions, but for RBs it is particularly top-heavy. Visually you can see the curve is very sharp and very skewed.
In the discussion of salaries, the discourse is usually 100% focused on the current top players expecting to get a new contract. In reality if anyone is getting underpaid, it’s the lower tier RBs.
