A 2022 Rookie Running Back Could Be The Next Elijah Mitchell, But Should That Excite Us?

Corbin Young
March 9, 2023

How much does draft capital matter for players, particularly the running back position? In recent seasons, an undrafted player or late-round option in the NFL Draft exceeds expectations as a rookie. Blair has some research on the most predictive running back metrics to help us with that question. Sometimes a player earns volume via injuries or fitting better into an offense regardless of draft capital.

Elijah Mitchell comes to mind. He was drafted in the sixth round in 2021 as the 10th running back selected. Mitchell went three rounds after Trey Sermon. Sermon battled injuries as a rookie, and the 49ers waived him before the 2022 season. Mitchell stole the show immediately as a rookie, with over 100 rushing yards on 19 carries in Week 1. Mitchell also rushed for over 100 yards five times as a rookie and joined 11 other running backs to meet that threshold since 2010.

Most of Mitchell’s value came on the ground, with the ninth-best rushing EP/G yet the 17th-highest EP/G due to the low receiving volume. A 2022 rookie who went late in the draft compared similarly to Mitchell in another high-powered offense. Unsurprisingly, we found a running back who found most of his value as a rusher with minimal receiving opportunities, though he finished his rookie campaign strong.

If Mitchell hadn’t suffered multiple knee injuries and a groin strain, there’s a good chance he could’ve replicated his Year 1 success. Could this 2022 Mitchell look-alike succeed where his doppelgänger failed? We’ll look at historical comparisons for this 2022 rookie to help us decide how to value him in redraft and dynasty formats in 2023 and beyond.

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Please subscribe For Full Access to all RotoViz content and tools!

What’s included in your subscription??

Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
- A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
Revolutionary Tools
- Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
Groundbreaking Articles
- RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
Weekly Projections
- Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
Expert Rankings
And a whole lot more…

Corbin Young

These 2 Teams with New Starters Could Provide Massive Fantasy Value: Small Gap Backfields to Watch Closely During the Preseason

Corbin Young August 11, 2024

Last time, we looked at small gap running backs on two teams with a dominant veteran and potential breakouts to identify undervalued players based on their ADP. Today we’ll cover two more small gap running backs, including a veteran and a younger option. The idea of small gap and big gap RBs comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates for big or small gap backs,…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

A Dominant Veteran and Some Breakout Backs: 2 Big Gap Backfields and Offenses To Target

Corbin Young July 18, 2024

Last time we looked at small gap running backs and identified some undervalued veterans and young backs based on their ADP. Today we’ll cover two big gap backfields, including a veteran joining a new high-powered offense and a breakout running back valued similarly to last season. The idea of small gap and big gap RBs comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Veterans and Young Running Backs: 2 Small Gap Backfields Offer Opportunities for a Variety of Strategic Approaches

Corbin Young July 8, 2024

Last time, we looked at small gap running backs on two teams with new offensive coordinators to identify undervalued players based on their ADP. Today we’ll cover two more small gap running backs, including a veteran and a younger option. The idea of small gap and big gap RBs comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates for big or small gap backs,…...