Bjorn Yang-Vaernet examines which players on the waiver wire are worth prioritizing for Week 13 and highlights others to stash preemptively.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Similar to most people on this site, this holiday week was extremely busy with family, friends, and football. I’ll keep this introduction very short. Thankful for the opportunity to write this article and grateful for the audience who read this column each week. With that out of the way, there were many injury situations to sort through in Week 12 and the players to prioritize on waivers are below. Let’s go!
The waiver wire is one of the most important pieces of season-long draft leagues. It is the easiest way to acquire new players and every year there are gems to be found. The goal of this article will not only be to highlight which weekly breakout players to prioritize but find others to preemptively pick up before the breakout happens.
This article will be published once on Mondays with a quick run through my favorite pickups and again on Tuesdays with more charts and data points added in.
This article will only reference players that are less than 50% owned in ESPN leagues. The players are categorized by position group and within each group is the order of how I would prioritize them. In lieu of free agent acquisition budget percentages, which are highly dependent on the makeup of each league, I have highlighted which players I would prioritize on the week.
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson (Available in 58% of Leagues)
This blurb matches the Week 10 article — the story remains the same. Note that he was picked up in another 8% of ESPN leagues last week, a number that should increase again in this week’s waiver run. I doubt he will be available in more than 50% of leagues after this week.
Deshaun Watson is still serving his 11-game suspension and is eligible to return in Week 13. However, he will start to get picked up more and more in the coming weeks. If possible, Watson is a good hold for those who can afford one less roster spot. The reason why Watson is worth the stash is because of how much rushing QBs have separated from the rest of the field in terms of who can win a week. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Fields all have multiple 30-plus FP games in which their rushing ability played a big role. Watson is one of the few QBs in this league that has that skill set. Although Week 12 stats are not yet included for all players, the top QBs in points per game overwhelming come from these rushing players.
Jimmy Garoppolo (Available in 52% of Leagues)
The main reason behind Jimmy Garoppolo as a waiver wire pickup has not changed since I wrote about him in last week’s article. Below is what I wrote (with an update in numbers):
One of the hardest parts of streaming QBs is that many of the options on the waiver wire have the unfortunate combination of a low floor and ceiling. While Jimmy Garoppolo won’t help on the ceiling aspect, he does provide a solid floor. Garoppolo has one game with more than 25 fantasy points on the season, but he also only has one game, in nine active games, with less than 15 points. Garoppolo has been so consistent because of all the offensive weapons that the 49ers have. With so many potential mismatches on the offense, it is hard for defenses to completely shut down the 49ers’ offense. Garoppolo is a solid fill-in during the last month of bye-weeks.
Garoppolo should be a relatively safe option to use in Week 13 against the Dolphins. Two factors are working in Garoppolo’s favor 1) Miami is a pass-funnel defense (facing the third-highest situation-neutral pass rate) and 2) the 49ers will likely be pushed by the Dolphins (30 or more points scored in four consecutive games), increasing the likelihood that the 49ers have to pass more.
Running Back
Gus Edwards (Available in 60% of Leagues)
Gus Edwards returned from his hamstring injury in Week 12 and stepped right back into his usual role. He played on 50% of the offensive snaps but had 16 rush attempts. Similar to weeks past, Edwards was the goal line RB for Baltimore, an essential role to have in order to be fantasy relevant — Lamar Jackson does not pass to RBs often. Edwards is someone who should be picked up in all leagues and offers steady RB2 or RB3 production. However, the ceiling is fairly limited (and TD-dependent) as Edwards is unlikely to see much more than 20 carries in a game.
