Welcome to Going Deep! This weekly article will use charting data, advanced metrics, and other RotoViz tools to help its readers better understand the challenges facing wide receivers and tight ends in the coming week.
This week’s Going Deep Worksheet can be found at the end of the article and includes data from weeks 15 through 17 of 2020, and all games played in 2021. For a better understanding of the information contained within it, please check out this article. Here’s a small sample, from last week, of what’s contained within.
Matchup Prognosis
Detailed Matchup Overview
Points Allowed Summary
Advanced Pass Defense Stats
Titans @ Jets
The Jets have been one of the best teams at limiting the fantasy scoring of opposing WRs and TEs. In fact, the team is tied for first in 10-plus-point performances allowed to WRs and fourth in 8-plus-point games allowed to TEs. However, this doesn’t tell the entire story as the team ranks 19th in expected points added (EPA) per play, 23rd in yards allowed per coverage snap, and 21st in yards allowed per attempt. EPA describes the total change in an offense’s expected points from a given play. One reason pass catchers aren’t routinely racking up significant point totals against the Jets is that opposing offenses haven’t needed to air it out. Since Week 15 of 2020, the Jets have trailed opponents by more than seven points on 51% of offensive snaps. To be fair, the defense does rank first in bust percentage — dropbacks that resulted in an EPA of less than one — and has allowed just two passing touchdowns in 2021.
The Titans will be without A.J. Brown and Julio Jones in Week 4. This leaves the motley crew of Chester Rogers, Geoff Swaim, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to pick up the pace. Rogers has run the majority of his routes from the slot this season and can expect to draw coverage from rookie Michael Carter. Carter has been targeted eight times and surrendered just 15 yards.
Titan’s 2021 Receiving Share Overview
| Player | Pos | GMs | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | YPR | Yd/Tgt | Tgt Shr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Rogers | WR | 3 | 13 | 7 | 90 | 1 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 13% |
| Derrick Henry | RB | 3 | 13 | 12 | 105 | 0 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 13% |
| Jeremy McNichols | RB | 3 | 10 | 7 | 60 | 1 | 8.6 | 6 | 10% |
| Geoff Swaim | TE | 3 | 7 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 7% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | 3 | 7 | 6 | 69 | 1 | 11.5 | 9.9 | 7% |
| Anthony Firkser | TE | 3 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 4% |
| Tommy Hudson | TE | 3 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 4% |
Without its alphas, this isn’t a great matchup for the Titans’ passing game. The Jets’ secondary might not be as strong as certain metrics would suggest, but I wouldn’t start any of Tennessee’s non-running back options in an attempt to cash in on speculative volume.
Corey Davis will likely be covered on the majority of snaps by Janoris Jenkins. Jenkins has allowed nearly 13.5 points per game to opposing players, and teams haven’t been afraid to pass on him. He’s been directly targeted an average of 6.5 times in his last six games while allowing 27 completions on 31 catchable passes for 359 yards. Elijah Moore isn’t expected to play, which could open up some opportunities for Keelan Cole in what looks like a neutral matchup for New York’s passing attack.
