The Jaguars Backfield Presents an Opportunity to Boost Your Win Rates, But at What Cost? Small-Gap RBs on 2 Polarizing Teams
Image Credit: David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: James Robinson.

Last time we identified a couple of bargains at the running back position with a large ADP gap. We used research by Jack Miller on the ADP gap between RB teammates to identify Myles Gaskin and Mike Davis. Both running backs hold an ADP gap greater than 98.5 with their team’s RB2, which qualifies as a big-gap running back. However, small-gap backfields also provide an opportunity to find better-than-average win rates.

When looking at Jack’s research, we find that S1 running backs score slightly more than S2 running backs. However, S2 backs have higher win rates and hit rates than S1 backs. Seeing that S2 backs can provide above-average win rates, let’s look at S1 and S2 backs on a couple of polarizing teams.

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David Johnson was the best running back in football for a season and a half. Few RBs possess Johnson’s size and athleticism combined with his receiving talent. But over the years a number of backs have been able to give us David-Johnson-lite production with a much smaller frame and fewer athletic gifts. It may seem like ages ago when Devin Singletary was last a fantasy-relevant…...

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