Rashod Bateman was selected by the Baltimore Ravens with the No. 27 pick in the 2021 NFL draft. This is one of the reasons I’ve been urging people to buy Lamar Jackson. And for Bateman . . . keep in mind that everyone was excited about Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown a year ago. The former Minnesota star is a bigger talent, and he could be the key to an offensive renaissance.
Okay, that’s the optimistic intro. And I believe every word of it – from at least a certain perspective.
Jackson isn’t a technically sound or accurate passer, and he went through a brutal stretch in 2020 where a big chunk of his passes looked like intentional grounding. He’s also such an explosive overall athlete that defenses have to make decisions on what to take away. Those decisions have often led to big plays in the passing game.
Jackson’s total passing fantasy points over expectation (paFPOE) have been among the league leaders over the last two years.
Unfortunately, even if we get Good Jackson in 2021, the volume ceiling just won’t be there. The NFL Pace tool provides a glaring look at the run/pass splits in Baltimore and how it affects their pass plays per 60 minutes.
The Ravens were the only team to pass the ball less than 50% of the time – one of only five teams to pass less than 55% of the time – and they managed it by a wide margin. Squads like Tennessee, Minnesota, and San Francisco can’t even come close to Baltimore.
Bateman is going to crater from his current WR27 ADP in dynasty startups, but fantasy owners are right to be impressed by his talent. In fact, our advanced stats suggest he might be closer to Ja’Marr Chase than many realize.
