Need to replace a starter like Ronald Jones or Raheem Mostert and don’t have their handcuffs? Shawn Siegele offers a handful of AFC desperation plays, including options for even the deepest leagues. He also discusses four dynasty strong-buy candidates and the one running back he’s buying everywhere this offseason.

The Ultimate Zero RB Watch is for all fantasy owners, regardless of your RB strategy. As I discussed in my look at the Perfect Draft and How It Helps Us Prepare for 2021, there was no one way to play the RB position this year. Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, and Derrick Henry have had fantastic seasons, but James Robinson was the true league winner. The current No. 7 in the FFPC Main Event even started J.D. McKissic and Benny Snell in Week 15.^[1]Blair Andrews and I aren’t the only crazy ones.

As we get to the fantasy finals and reach the penultimate week of the Watch List, I want to thank all of the readers that have shared his journey with us. Another thanks is also in order. I’ve been with RotoViz since the beginning, and this has been my favorite season in large part due to work of Mike Beers and the tools team.

The research for this piece is always an adventure, but this week’s article took even longer to write as I was constantly pulled down the rabbit hole of one tool after another.

NFL Stats Explorer
GPS Matchup Rater
NFL Pace Tool
RotoViz Screener
Strength of Schedule Streamer
Weekly Stats Explorer
Game Splits
Player Usage
2020 Best Ball Win Rates
Box Score Scout
Team Splits

To be sure, you don’t have to use all of the tools if you don’t want. By itself, the NFL Stat Explorer is more like 20 tools in one. The Fantasy Stats tab offers a fantasy summary, positional rankings, receiving profile, and an explorer feature that offers visualizations in 44 different stat categories. And that’s only one section. It also offers tabs with Matchup Analysis, Game Logs, and Career Detail.

I watch every NFL game, but exploring the tools still provides myriad insights. I avoid roster mistakes and uncover gems every week. If you’re looking to generate results like those of the RotoViz team this year, the tools are a great place to start. A RotoViz subscription is a perfect Christmas gift and doesn’t require the postal service.

To the Watch List . . .

Baltimore Ravens

This is still not quite the workload J.K. Dobbins owners envisioned with Mark Ingram scratched, especially not in a game where the Ravens scored 40 points, but he did earn and convert the goal-line carry a week after losing two rushing touchdowns to Gus Edwards. As is the case for several rookie RBs, the talent is starting to shine through. Dobbins relies on his explosiveness, and with 5.2 yards per carry, those highlight runs are translating to the NFL.

Buffalo Bills

Zack Moss recorded his third game with 13 or more carries. While it’s tempting to think he’s threatening to take over this committee, Devin Singletary held an 11-10 touch lead through three quarters, including the crucial receiving touches.

Singletary’s day would have been far different without the 51-yard TD run while the Bills were killing clock. For his best-ball owners, that play counts, and it also gives him a season-high with 7.5 FPOE. Explosive as a rookie, Singletary recorded five games with at least 4.0 FPOE. This was only his second such game in 2020.

The Bills RBs labor in the same category with Chiefs backs. Both teams are averaging more than 2.7 points per drive, but the RBs are difficult weekly plays. A lot of the team explosiveness can be directly traced to Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, although it’s not just their talent but what their talent allows. Both teams pass at least 65% of the time when tied or trailing, but they also pass 57% of the time when leading. Given that the Bills and Chiefs easily lead the league in total offensive plays with the lead, this is a key stat.

Pass/Rush Profile – Teams With 350-Plus Plays in Lead

Allen creates a secondary challenge for his RBs as his first three NFL seasons all rank in the top-11 in QB rushing TDs over the last 20 years. Despite these structural hurdles, I will continue to buy Moss and Singletary this offseason. In such a high-scoring offense there are too many scenarios where they generate post-hype noise in 2021.

Cleveland Browns

Drafted in the fifth round even as the lesser back in a timeshare, Kareem Hunt was a monster through five weeks, averaging 17.6 PPG. If you told owners that Nick Chubb would then miss a month and yet Hunt would only finish in the top-24 backs twice more, they wouldn’t have believed you. Although his target rate has stayed the same, he hasn’t been able to maintain the rushing volume or efficiency that made him a first-month sensation.

The expectations placed on Hunt have always strained at the edges of fairness, but his (relative) failure in Chubb’s absence was also a fluke. He remains a standalone option with elite handcuff upside and – assuming continued RB inflation – should go in the same range in 2021.

Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor finally vanquished Jordan Wilkins, as the Colts avoided any early-second-half throwaway drives in a too-close-for-comfort victory over the Texans. Only Henry and David Montgomery are averaging more points over the last five weeks, and Taylor’s recent hot streak pushed him onto the Perfect Draft. He’s suddenly a threat for a top-six selection in 2021 drafts.

Nyheim Hines also made the Perfect Draft, although the expectations are much lower for a 13th-round pick. His streak of three consecutive RB2 or better finishes (and four of the last five) was broken in a low-volume appearance where Taylor cut into his targets.

Kansas City Chiefs

Clyde Edwards-Helaire trailed only Ezekiel Elliott in total EP through Week 6, but he’s been outside of the top 30 since. His decrease in workload corresponded with an increase in efficiency, but a disappointing rookie regular season concluded with ankle and hip injuries against the Saints.

Le’Veon Bell now becomes the focal point, and he’d taken a big chunk out of Edwards-Helaire’s workload even before the injury. Despite looking several years older than Frank Gore, Bell now has two games with double-digit carries in the last three.

The Chiefs will incorporate Darrel Williams, although his lack of explosiveness reduces the chances for a Jeff Wilson-like spike game. He has one rushing score on the year and usually finishes with negative FPOE.

Los Angeles Chargers

Austin Ekeler led the way with 17 opportunities, but the four targets were a disappointment after he’d averaged 11 over the three previous weeks. His 13 carries weren’t particularly valuable, as Kalen Ballage replaced him around the goal line.

Ballage found the end zone in this one, but he remains a desperation play without a role in the passing game and with Joshua Kelley chipping away a couple of carries as well.

Miami Dolphins

If you were able to juggle back to Salvon Ahmed for Week 15, his 25.2 total EP trailed only Josh Jacobs, Dalvin Cook, and David Montgomery.

As the Player Usage tool illustrates, the Dolphins have often deployed a weekly bell cow this season, even with non-household names like Myles Gaskin and Ahmed.

Opportunity Marketshare – Miami RBs

The Dolphins handed off 37 times in this one, and Matt Breida managed double-digit carries for the first time this year. They were of the low-value variety as usual, but he showed off his jets with 7.2 yards per attempt.

New York Jets

It’s easy to mock Frank Gore’s efficiency. He sits bottom five on the season in total FPOE and trails only Peyton Barber for the most-inefficient distinction since 2018. But his game-sealing reception and subsequent enthusiasm in the Jets’ upset win tells the real story and explains his endurance at 37 in a position where many are washed up by 26.

You should never count out Gore, and our decision to bench him in Chasing OT could cost us half a million dollars.^[2]Of course, it’ll likely cost us less, but we’re optimistic.

Ty Johnson continues to impress as the sidekick, and he’s quickly carving out a meaningful role in 2021. Scatbacks are increasingly valuable, and they don’t all have Johnson’s burst.^[3]As a sophomore at Maryland, he gained 1,200 yards from scrimmage and averaged over 9.0 yards per attempt. His 18-yard TD reception put New York in front early and helped fueled their first victory in 2020.

A RotoViz subscription is the perfect Christmas gift and doesn’t require the postal service. If that favorite uncle or tricky co-worker already subscribes, the Dynasty Command Center Rookie Guide is now available for pre-order. Back and better than ever in 2021, our team of devy, college football, and draft prospect experts will help you transform your rookie draft performance.

Tennessee Titans