You Can Win with the Worst RB in the NFL, but What About the Two Worst RBs? What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 13

Blair Andrews
December 8, 2020

Blair Andrews looks back at the leaders in expected points and fantasy points over expectation after Week 13. Backup RBs continued to underperform while our favorite rookies continued to make cases for dynasty startup first-round status. And we finally answer the question: do you really need RBs in the FFPC?

For an explanation of what expected points and fantasy points over expectation are, head to the end of the article.

Shawn and I entered the finals of our FFPC Main Event league as slight underdogs. Our opponent’s starters included Kyler Murray, James Robinson, Keenan Allen, and Adam Thielen. We had little choice but to start Nyheim Hines and Benny Snell at RB.

Snell actually had one of the more valuable workloads of the week. But he was also the least efficient player in Week 13, and it wasn’t particularly close.^[1]His ruEP and ruFPOE numbers reflect three consecutive failed carries from the 1-yard-line, plays that combined for 9.5 EP and resulted in no points.

This was easily the worst game of Snell’s career, but if you’re not already worried that Snell might just be Carlos Hyde without the opportunity, a look at his career numbers is sobering.

Even if we remove his last two games — each more disappointing than any game that had come before it — Snell’s career FPOE is still negative.

For as valuable as Snell’s workload was, it wasn’t the most valuable RB workload on our FFPC team, or even in the same game. J.D. McKissic had 20.5 expected points the one week we decide to bench him. Only Alvin Kamara has more targets or receiving yards among RBs for the season.

Despite his workload, McKissic was again in the red in terms of efficiency. He remains the least efficient RB in the league, though he does now have some competition.

Kamara, for his part, remains the most efficient RB in the league, but he’s lost his lead in overall workload value, as his expected points cratered once Taysom Hill took over QB duties in Week 11.

In the meantime, Dalvin Cook has been seeing some of his biggest workloads of the season in the last three weeks, surpassing 30 EP twice in that span.

Cook now leads all RBs in total EP and total PPR, and trails only Kamara in total FPOE. However, neither of those players even land in the top five in total FPOE among non-quarterbacks.

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Footnotes[+]Footnotes[−]

Footnotes
↑1	His ruEP and ruFPOE numbers reflect three consecutive failed carries from the 1-yard-line, plays that combined for 9.5 EP and resulted in no points.

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Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

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