Welcome to the game environment series. This series will provide several weekly games to target and fade, based on macro-level factors that impact fantasy production. For more on these factors, click here. We recommend using this in conjunction with our micro-level analysis, including the buy low report, the strength in numbers series, our quarterback, kicker, tight end, and defense streaming articles, and the slate of DFS analysis we provide.
Week 12 Review
Targets
Chargers @ Bills
Chiefs @ Buccaneers
Titans @ Colts
Low-owned Game Stack
Raiders @ Falcons
Derrick Henry continued his trend of late-season dominance, again offering massive leverage off of other highly owned running backs in DFS. If you played him in Patrick Mahomes–Tyreek Hill stacks, congratulations on your profitable week. As for the Chargers-Bills and Raiders-Falcons matchups, they were disappointing. Josh Allen has struggled without John Brown this year, and while it’s a small sample, the loss of a deep threat usually hampers quarterbacks’ efficiency. Justin Herbert didn’t produce a ceiling game, but with Austin Ekeler back, I expect him to rebound going forward. Derek Carr looked as bad as any quarterback has this year.
Fades
Saints @ Broncos
49ers @ Rams
Panthers @ Vikings
The Saints-Broncos game was a fade before the Broncos’ quarterbacks were ruled out. After that news, I avoided that game entirely. The 49ers-Rams matchup played out as expected, with two strong defenses limiting scoring, but the two genius coaches finding ways to move the ball regardless. Deebo Samuel was a strong contrarian play, but the lack of an ideal Rams’ player to play with him kept Samuel’s ownership low in DFS. The Vikings ran into another high-scoring game thanks to back-to-back touchdowns by the Panthers’ defense. Despite their slow pace and run-heavy approach, the Vikings continue to find ways to produce high-scoring fantasy days. On to Week 13.
The Game Environment – Week 13
Week 13 average total: 47.2 points
Week 12 average total: 48.8 points
Week 11 average total: 49.0 points
Week 10 average total: 49.2 points
Week 9 average total: 48.6 points
Week 8 average total: 47.8 points
Week 7 average total: 50.2 points
Week 6 average total: 50.5 points
Week 5 average total: 50.4 points
Week 4 average total: 49.7 points
Week 3 average total: 47.5 points
Week 2 average total: 46 points
Week 13 Context:
Week 13 is a weird game environment week. Fast-paced, pass-heavy teams are projected to be in blowout game scripts with low totals. The higher total games feature run-heavy, slow-paced teams. There’s also a large grouping of matchups with totals near the weekly average, which is the lowest since week two. In DFS, I plan to target this middle tier, as these matchups offer a faster pace and higher passing rates than the higher total games, and they have higher totals than the fast-paced projected blowout games.
Targets
Rams @ Cardinals
The Cardinals remain a fast-paced offense with the highest no-huddle rate in the league. They have shifted to more of a rushing attack in recent weeks, but some of that is due to Kyler Murray’s propensity to scramble. Murray is seemingly back to full health, and I like him to rebound here. On the Rams side, they’ve passed more in recent weeks, and have a higher than average no-huddle rate to supplement their average pace. With a slightly higher than average total, I like this game to outperform higher total matchups.
Colts @ Texans
This matchup has the third-highest total on the week (50.5 points), an average pace, and a higher than average passing rate. When trailing by more than 7-plus points, the Colts operate at a top ten pace, while the Texans throw at a higher than average rate. This game doesn’t appear to have the makings of a complete shootout, but the peripheral numbers should generate a high floor of fantasy production. Captain of the fantasy floor performance himself, Philip Rivers, is a streaming option this week.
Giants @ Seahawks
The Seahawks haven’t thrown as often in recent weeks, but they still have a higher than average passing rate and the fourth-highest implied total on the week. The Giants don’t score lots of points, but they play at an above-average pace and are average in passing rate, which should increase the floor for the Seahawks’ players. Russell Wilson stacks are certainly in play this week, and they will likely come at their lowest ownership in weeks.
