If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can look out how players actually perform with their opportunity — how many points they actually score — and arrive at a player’s fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). FPOE turns out to be a catch-all efficiency metric that accounts for both yards and touchdowns in a single number. Add EP (opportunity) and FPOE (efficiency) together, and you get a player’s actual fantasy output.
This weekly article will look at some leaders in expected points and try to tease out how fantasy gamers can take advantage of these various volume and efficiency situations. First, the Week 10 data:
Week 10 Expected Points
| Player | Pos | EP | FPOE | ruEP | ruFPOE | reEP | reFPOE | msRuEP | msReEP | msEP | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. McKissic | RB | 31.4 | -13.5 | 6.2 | 0.4 | 25.2 | -13.9 | 36.7% | 30.0% | 31.1% | 17.9 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | WR | 24.1 | -4.4 | 0.8 | -1.6 | 23.3 | -2.8 | 5.8% | 38.8% | 32.6% | 19.7 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | 22.9 | 11.9 | 9 | 4.5 | 13.9 | 7.4 | 50.0% | 34.4% | 39.2% | 34.8 |
| Chase Claypool | WR | 22.7 | -2.8 | 3.2 | -3.5 | 19.5 | 0.7 | 24.8% | 24.7% | 24.8% | 19.9 |
| Mike Evans | WR | 22.2 | -2.5 | 0 | 0 | 22.2 | -2.5 | 0.0% | 31.7% | 24.3% | 19.7 |
| Juju Smith-Schuster | WR | 22.2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 22.2 | 0.5 | 0.0% | 28.2% | 24.2% | 22.7 |
| Kalen Ballage | RB | 22.2 | -7 | 13.5 | -6.7 | 8.7 | -0.3 | 75.8% | 17.3% | 32.6% | 15.2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 21.3 | 4.4 | 0 | 0 | 21.3 | 4.4 | 0.0% | 39.2% | 32.0% | 25.7 |
| Dalvin Cook | RB | 21.1 | -5.9 | 15.7 | -6.1 | 5.4 | 0.2 | 94.0% | 10.3% | 30.6% | 15.2 |
| Cole Beasley | WR | 20.7 | 7.2 | 0 | 0 | 20.7 | 7.2 | 0.0% | 29.9% | 26.2% | 27.9 |
| Wayne Gallman | RB | 19.8 | -0.8 | 17.1 | 0.2 | 2.7 | -1 | 75.0% | 6.3% | 30.0% | 19 |
| Ronald Jones | RB | 18.2 | 8.6 | 15.7 | 9.5 | 2.5 | -0.9 | 73.0% | 3.6% | 19.9% | 26.8 |
| Davante Adams | WR | 18.1 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 18.1 | 2.5 | 0.0% | 38.8% | 31.6% | 20.6 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | 17.7 | -1.6 | 0 | 0 | 12.5 | -1.6 | 0.0% | 45.8% | 38.3% | 16.1 |
| Nyheim Hines | RB | 17.7 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 10 | 5.5 | 34.1% | 15.8% | 20.6% | 28.5 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | 17.5 | 12.1 | 11.5 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 0.5 | 57.5% | 17.1% | 32.1% | 29.6 |
| Diontae Johnson | WR | 17.2 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 17.2 | 6.4 | 0.0% | 21.8% | 18.8% | 23.6 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | 16.4 | 5.1 | 0 | 0 | 16.4 | 5.1 | 0.0% | 31.4% | 23.8% | 21.5 |
| K.J. Hamler | WR | 16.4 | -7.4 | 0 | 0 | 16.4 | -7.4 | 0.0% | 20.7% | 18.8% | 9 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | 16.3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 16.3 | 9 | 0.0% | 23.6% | 20.6% | 25.3 |
| James Robinson | RB | 16 | -2.8 | 10.5 | 0.4 | 5.6 | -3.3 | 100.0% | 11.4% | 26.9% | 13.2 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | 15.9 | 8.6 | 0 | 0 | 15.9 | 8.6 | 0.0% | 26.8% | 23.0% | 24.5 |
| Miles Sanders | RB | 15.9 | -2.4 | 8.6 | 1.9 | 7.3 | -4.3 | 75.4% | 13.6% | 24.4% | 13.5 |
| Michael Pittman | WR | 15.7 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 14.9 | 2.2 | 3.5% | 23.5% | 18.3% | 19.2 |
| Josh Reynolds | WR | 15.5 | 1.9 | 0 | 0 | 15.5 | 1.9 | 0.0% | 26.5% | 19.6% | 17.4 |
| Marvin Jones | WR | 15.4 | 8.2 | 0 | 0 | 15.4 | 8.2 | 0.0% | 31.8% | 26.4% | 23.6 |
| Salvon Ahmed | RB | 15.4 | 0.6 | 13.2 | 1.3 | 2.2 | -0.7 | 82.0% | 4.9% | 25.4% | 16 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | 15.2 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 0.7 | 7.8 | 10 | 74.7% | 16.1% | 26.1% | 25.9 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | 15.1 | -0.6 | 6.9 | -2.3 | 8.2 | 1.7 | 63.9% | 17.6% | 26.4% | 14.5 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | 14.9 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 14.1 | 2.4 | 4.7% | 16.8% | 14.8% | 19.2 |
| Jerick McKinnon | RB | 14.9 | -9.3 | 10.9 | -7.6 | 4 | -1.7 | 79.0% | 6.7% | 20.2% | 5.6 |
| Antonio Gibson | RB | 14.8 | 7.7 | 9 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 0.2 | 53.3% | 6.9% | 14.7% | 22.5 |
| Allen Robinson | WR | 14.5 | -4.2 | 0 | 0 | 14.5 | -4.2 | 0.0% | 33.0% | 27.1% | 10.3 |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | 14.5 | 1.7 | 9.1 | 1.3 | 5.4 | 0.4 | 48.7% | 17.5% | 29.3% | 16.2 |
| Giovani Bernard | RB | 14.3 | -5.6 | 4.1 | -1.1 | 10.3 | -4.6 | 41.4% | 17.4% | 20.7% | 8.7 |
| Jerry Jeudy | WR | 14.2 | -3.4 | 0 | 0 | 14.2 | -3.4 | 0.0% | 17.9% | 16.3% | 10.8 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | 14.2 | -2.3 | 11.5 | -1.2 | 2.7 | -1.1 | 56.4% | 6.2% | 22.2% | 11.9 |
| Antonio Brown | WR | 13.9 | -0.3 | 0.5 | -0.8 | 13.4 | 0.5 | 2.3% | 19.1% | 15.2% | 13.6 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | 13.5 | -0.4 | 0 | 0 | 13.5 | -0.4 | 0.0% | 26.4% | 22.7% | 13.1 |
| Brandin Cooks | WR | 13.4 | -3.5 | 0 | 0 | 13.4 | -3.5 | 0.0% | 28.0% | 24.5% | 9.9 |
| Adam Thielen | WR | 13.1 | 7.2 | 0 | 0 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 19.0% | 20.3 |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | 13.1 | -1.5 | 0 | 0 | 13.1 | -1.5 | 0.0% | 24.7% | 21.8% | 11.6 |
| Tyler Boyd | WR | 13 | -2.9 | 0 | 0 | 13 | -2.9 | 0.0% | 21.9% | 18.8% | 10.1 |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 12.9 | -2.9 | 0 | 0 | 12.9 | -2.9 | 0.0% | 22.1% | 16.3% | 10 |
| Jonnu Smith | TE | 12.9 | -3.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 8.3 | -4.9 | 22.5% | 19.0% | 20.2% | 9.5 |
| Michael Thomas | WR | 12.8 | -8.1 | 0 | 0 | 12.8 | -8.1 | 0.0% | 31.7% | 21.9% | 4.7 |
| John Brown | WR | 12.7 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 12.7 | 0.5 | 0.0% | 18.4% | 16.1% | 13.2 |
| Will Fuller | WR | 12.6 | -3.8 | 0 | 0 | 12.6 | -3.8 | 0.0% | 26.3% | 23.0% | 8.8 |
| Noah Fant | TE | 12.1 | -7.3 | 0 | 0 | 12.1 | -7.3 | 0.0% | 15.3% | 13.9% | 4.8 |
| DeVante Parker | WR | 12 | -6.9 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -6.9 | 0.0% | 26.9% | 19.8% | 5.1 |
| Chris Conley | WR | 11.7 | -3.4 | 0 | 0 | 11.7 | -3.4 | 0.0% | 23.9% | 19.7% | 8.3 |
| Willie Snead | WR | 11.7 | 11.7 | 0 | 0 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 0.0% | 22.9% | 19.6% | 23.4 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | 11.6 | 7 | 9.6 | 9 | 2 | -2 | 51.3% | 6.5% | 23.4% | 18.6 |
| Mike Davis | RB | 11.4 | -3 | 4.4 | -1.2 | 7 | -1.8 | 59.5% | 15.7% | 21.9% | 8.4 |
| Anthony Miller | WR | 11.2 | -6.4 | 0 | 0 | 11.2 | -6.4 | 0.0% | 25.5% | 20.9% | 4.8 |
| Darius Slayton | WR | 11.1 | 3.2 | 0 | 0 | 11.1 | 3.2 | 0.0% | 25.8% | 16.8% | 14.3 |
| D.J. Moore | WR | 11 | 8.6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 8.6 | 0.0% | 24.6% | 21.1% | 19.6 |
| Keelan Cole | WR | 11 | 10.7 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4.7 | 0.0% | 22.4% | 18.5% | 21.7 |
| Damien Harris | RB | 11 | 1.1 | 11 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 79.7% | 0.0% | 23.8% | 12.1 |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 10.9 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 10.9 | 2.1 | 0.0% | 21.7% | 16.0% | 13 |
| Eric Ebron | TE | 10.9 | -5.1 | 0 | 0 | 10.9 | -5.1 | 0.0% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 5.8 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | WR | 10.9 | 2.4 | 0 | 0 | 10.9 | 2.4 | 0.0% | 13.7% | 12.5% | 13.3 |
| Rex Burkhead | RB | 10.8 | 11.8 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 8.1 | 11.4 | 20.3% | 29.7% | 23.4% | 22.6 |
| Logan Thomas | TE | 10.7 | -0.1 | 0 | 0 | 10.7 | -0.1 | 0.0% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 10.6 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | WR | 10.7 | 2.1 | 7.6 | -4.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 79.2% | 7.0% | 20.0% | 12.8 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | 10.4 | -4.7 | 7.7 | -6.5 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 34.1% | 4.3% | 12.1% | 5.7 |
| Jalen Reagor | WR | 10.3 | -1.6 | 0 | 0 | 10.3 | -1.6 | 0.0% | 19.2% | 15.8% | 8.7 |
| Christian Kirk | WR | 10.3 | -3.6 | 0 | 0 | 10.3 | -3.6 | 0.0% | 19.0% | 15.5% | 6.7 |
| Tyler Higbee | TE | 10.1 | -1.1 | 0 | 0 | 10.1 | -1.1 | 0.0% | 17.3% | 12.8% | 9 |
| Robby Anderson | WR | 10 | -3.9 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -3.9 | 0.0% | 22.4% | 19.2% | 6.1 |
| Chris Godwin | WR | 10 | 5.2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5.2 | 0.0% | 14.3% | 10.9% | 15.2 |
| Zach Pascal | WR | 9.9 | -2.6 | 0 | 0 | 9.9 | -2.6 | 0.0% | 15.6% | 11.5% | 7.3 |
| Devontae Booker | RB | 9.9 | 11.4 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 1.4 | -0.2 | 42.5% | 4.1% | 18.1% | 21.3 |
| Jakeem Grant | WR | 9.8 | 4.5 | 0 | 0 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 0.0% | 22.0% | 16.1% | 14.3 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 9.8 | 3.1 | 0 | 0 | 9.8 | 3.1 | 0.0% | 19.5% | 14.4% | 12.9 |
| Kenyan Drake | RB | 9.8 | 2.1 | 8.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 68.9% | 2.6% | 14.7% | 11.9 |
| Jalen Guyton | WR | 9.7 | -3.3 | 0 | 0 | 9.7 | -3.3 | 0.0% | 19.3% | 14.2% | 6.4 |
| Greg Ward Jr. | WR | 9.7 | -0.8 | 0 | 0 | 9.7 | -0.8 | 0.0% | 18.1% | 14.9% | 8.9 |
| Leonard Fournette | RB | 9.7 | -4.7 | 5.3 | -3.4 | 4.4 | -1.3 | 24.7% | 6.3% | 10.6% | 5 |
| Corey Davis | WR | 9.6 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 9.6 | 2.1 | 0.0% | 22.0% | 15.0% | 11.7 |
| Randall Cobb | WR | 9.6 | -2.5 | 0 | 0 | 9.6 | -2.5 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 17.6% | 7.1 |
| Tim Patrick | WR | 9.6 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 9.6 | 0.5 | 0.0% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 10.1 |
| Devin Singletary | RB | 9.5 | -7.5 | 2.1 | -0.6 | 7.5 | -7 | 38.9% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 2 |
| Melvin Gordon | RB | 9.5 | -4.9 | 5 | -0.4 | 4.5 | -4.5 | 64.1% | 5.7% | 10.9% | 4.6 |
| James Conner | RB | 9.5 | -2.7 | 6.4 | -2.8 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 49.6% | 3.9% | 10.4% | 6.8 |
| Curtis Samuel | WR | 9.4 | -5.2 | 1.6 | -1.2 | 7.8 | -4 | 21.6% | 17.4% | 18.0% | 4.2 |
| Robert Woods | WR | 9.4 | -0.8 | 0.3 | 0 | 9.1 | -0.8 | 1.5% | 15.6% | 11.9% | 8.6 |
| Marquise Brown | WR | 9.3 | -5.9 | 0 | 0 | 9.3 | -5.9 | 0.0% | 18.2% | 15.6% | 3.4 |
| Kyle Rudolph | TE | 9.3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.3 | 1 | 0.0% | 17.8% | 13.5% | 10.3 |
| Sterling Shepard | WR | 9.2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 9.2 | 1.5 | 0.0% | 21.3% | 14.0% | 10.7 |
| Isaiah Wright | WR | 9.2 | 2.7 | 0 | 0 | 9.2 | 2.7 | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 11.9 |
| Steven Sims Jr. | WR | 9.1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 9.1 | 0.5 | 0.0% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 9.6 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | WR | 9 | -5.7 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -5.7 | 0.0% | 16.6% | 13.5% | 3.3 |
| Jamaal Williams | RB | 9 | -0.5 | 3.4 | -0.4 | 5.7 | -0.2 | 31.5% | 12.2% | 15.7% | 8.5 |
| Malcolm Brown | RB | 9 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 31.7% | 4.3% | 11.4% | 19.1 |
| Jarvis Landry | WR | 8.9 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 8.9 | -3 | 0.0% | 28.9% | 18.0% | 5.9 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | 8.7 | -1.4 | 0 | 0 | 8.7 | -1.4 | 0.0% | 16.2% | 13.4% | 7.3 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | 8.6 | 16.3 | 0 | 0 | 8.6 | 16.3 | 0.0% | 18.5% | 15.0% | 24.9 |
| Duke Johnson | RB | 8.4 | -3 | 6.8 | -1.4 | 1.6 | -1.6 | 100.0% | 3.3% | 15.4% | 5.4 |
| T.Y. Hilton | WR | 8.3 | -0.3 | 0 | 0 | 8.3 | -0.3 | 0.0% | 13.1% | 9.7% | 8 |
| Jordan Reed | TE | 8.2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8.2 | 3 | 0.0% | 13.6% | 11.1% | 11.2 |
| Kendrick Bourne | WR | 8.2 | -1.6 | 0 | 0 | 8.2 | -1.6 | 0.0% | 13.6% | 11.1% | 6.6 |
| Alex Collins | RB | 8.1 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | -1.2 | 77.5% | 4.9% | 13.5% | 11.7 |
| Mike Williams | WR | 8 | -2.2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -2.2 | 0.0% | 15.9% | 11.7% | 5.8 |
| Travis Fulgham | WR | 7.8 | -6 | 0 | 0 | 7.8 | -6 | 0.0% | 14.5% | 12.0% | 1.8 |
| Richie James | WR | 7.8 | -2.2 | 0 | 0 | 7.8 | -2.2 | 0.0% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 5.6 |
| Mike Gesicki | TE | 7.7 | -1.7 | 0 | 0 | 7.7 | -1.7 | 0.0% | 17.3% | 12.7% | 6 |
| Darrell Henderson | RB | 7.7 | 2.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0 | 30.2% | 2.6% | 9.8% | 10.3 |
| Chase Edmonds | RB | 7.5 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 31.1% | 6.8% | 11.3% | 10.7 |
| Cam Akers | RB | 7.5 | -3.7 | 7.5 | -3.7 | 0 | 0 | 36.6% | 0.0% | 9.5% | 3.8 |
| Golden Tate | WR | 7.3 | -0.9 | 0 | 0 | 7.3 | -0.9 | 0.0% | 16.9% | 11.1% | 6.4 |
| D.J. Chark | WR | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0 | 0 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.0% | 14.9% | 12.3% | 9.6 |
| A.J. Green | WR | 7.3 | -7.3 | 0 | 0 | 7.3 | -7.3 | 0.0% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | WR | 7.2 | -5.4 | 0 | 0 | 7.2 | -5.4 | 0.0% | 20.9% | 13.2% | 1.8 |
| Freddie Swain | WR | 7.2 | -0.5 | 0 | 0 | 7.2 | -0.5 | 0.0% | 13.6% | 12.0% | 6.7 |
| Cameron Brate | TE | 7.2 | 4.9 | 0 | 0 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 0.0% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 12.1 |
| Darren Waller | TE | 7.1 | -0.4 | 0 | 0 | 7.1 | -0.4 | 0.0% | 20.6% | 13.0% | 6.7 |
| Richard Rodgers | TE | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0 | 0 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.0% | 13.2% | 10.9% | 10 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | TE | 7.1 | -2.2 | 0 | 0 | 7.1 | -2.2 | 0.0% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 4.9 |
| Deonte Harris | WR | 7 | -0.6 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -0.6 | 0.0% | 17.3% | 12.0% | 6.4 |
| Dan Arnold | TE | 7 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0.4 | 0.0% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 7.4 |
| Trey Burton | TE | 6.9 | -1.5 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 | -1.5 | 0.0% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 5.4 |
| Gus Edwards | RB | 6.9 | 1.4 | 4 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 48.2% | 5.5% | 11.6% | 8.3 |
| Rashard Higgins | WR | 6.8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.8 | 1 | 0.0% | 22.1% | 13.7% | 7.8 |
| Troy Fumagalli | TE | 6.8 | -3.6 | 0 | 0 | 6.8 | -3.6 | 0.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 3.2 |
| Jordan Wilkins | RB | 6.8 | -4 | 6.4 | -3.6 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 28.3% | 0.8% | 7.9% | 2.8 |
| Cam Sims | WR | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 9.4 |
| D.K. Metcalf | WR | 6.4 | -1.6 | 0 | 0 | 6.4 | -1.6 | 0.0% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 4.8 |
| Greg Olsen | TE | 6.4 | -1.1 | 0 | 0 | 6.4 | -1.1 | 0.0% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 5.3 |
| Tyler Eifert | TE | 6.3 | -2.8 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 | -2.8 | 0.0% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 3.5 |
| A.J. Brown | WR | 6.2 | -3.1 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 | -3.1 | 0.0% | 14.2% | 9.7% | 3.1 |
| Zack Moss | RB | 6.1 | -3.4 | 3.3 | -1.3 | 2.8 | -2.1 | 61.1% | 4.0% | 7.7% | 2.7 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | WR | 6 | -0.2 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.0% | 2.0% | 7.6% | 5.8 |
| Henry Ruggs | WR | 5.9 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 5.9 | 0.2 | 0.0% | 17.1% | 10.8% | 6.1 |
| Jimmy Graham | TE | 5.9 | -5.9 | 0 | 0 | 5.9 | -5.9 | 0.0% | 13.4% | 11.0% | 0 |
| Auden Tate | WR | 5.8 | -1.4 | 0 | 0 | 5.8 | -1.4 | 0.0% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 4.4 |
| David Moore | WR | 5.5 | -1.7 | 0.8 | -0.6 | 4.7 | -1.1 | 11.3% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 3.8 |
| Rob Gronkowski | TE | 5.5 | 7.6 | 0 | 0 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 0.0% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 13.1 |
| Durham Smythe | TE | 5.3 | 3.6 | 0 | 0 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 0.0% | 11.9% | 8.7% | 8.9 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | 5.3 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 5.3 | -2 | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 3.3 |
| Gerald Everett | TE | 5.2 | -0.5 | 0 | 0 | 5.2 | -0.5 | 0.0% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.7 |
| D'Onta Foreman | RB | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.9 | -1.1 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 14.2% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 9.3 |
| Evan Engram | TE | 5 | -1.5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -1.5 | 0.0% | 11.6% | 7.6% | 3.5 |
| Anthony Firkser | TE | 5 | -3.5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -3.5 | 0.0% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 1.5 |
| Robert Tonyan Jr. | TE | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.0% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 6.3 |
| Mark Ingram | RB | 4.8 | 0.1 | 2 | -1.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 24.1% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 4.9 |
| Samaje Perine | RB | 4.8 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 35.4% | 2.2% | 6.9% | 6.5 |
| Taysom Hill | WR | 4.8 | -0.5 | 4.8 | -0.3 | 0 | 0 | 26.7% | 0.0% | 8.2% | 4.3 |
| Danny Amendola | WR | 4.7 | -0.7 | 0 | 0 | 4.7 | -0.7 | 0.0% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 4 |
| Gabriel Davis | WR | 4.7 | -4.7 | 0 | 0 | 4.7 | -4.7 | 0.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 0 |
| Travis Homer | RB | 4.5 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 4.5 | 0.4 | 0.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 4.9 |
| Jesse James | TE | 4.4 | -1.5 | 0 | 0 | 4.4 | -1.5 | 0.0% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 2.9 |
| Devin Duvernay | WR | 4.3 | 3.2 | 0 | 0 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 0.0% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.5 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | RB | 4.3 | -2.6 | 1.6 | -1.7 | 2.7 | -0.9 | 12.4% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 1.7 |
| Joshua Kelley | RB | 4.3 | -2.2 | 4.3 | -2.2 | 0 | 0 | 24.2% | 0.0% | 6.3% | 2.1 |
| Royce Freeman | RB | 4.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 0.2 | 11.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.6 |
| Latavius Murray | RB | 4.2 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 23.3% | 0.0% | 7.2% | 5.7 |
| Marvin Hall | WR | 4.1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 4.1 | 10 | 0.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 14.1 |
| DeeJay Dallas | RB | 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 11.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.1 |
| JaMycal Hasty | RB | 4 | -1.1 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 2.8 | -1.2 | 8.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 2.9 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 4 | -1.6 | 2.3 | -1 | 1.7 | -0.6 | 27.7% | 3.3% | 6.7% | 2.4 |
| Cameron Batson | WR | 3.9 | -1.1 | 0 | 0 | 3.9 | -1.1 | 0.0% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 2.8 |
| Cole Kmet | TE | 3.9 | -2.2 | 0 | 0 | 3.9 | -2.2 | 0.0% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 1.7 |
| Malcolm Perry | WR | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 3.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.7 |
| Pharaoh Brown | TE | 3.7 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 0.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 10.1 |
| Will Dissly | TE | 3.7 | -1.1 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 | -1.1 | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 2.6 |
| Tyler Johnson | WR | 3.4 | -3.4 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | -3.4 | 0.0% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | RB | 3.4 | -3.2 | 1.9 | -1.7 | 1.5 | -1.5 | 24.4% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 0.2 |
| Alfred Morris | RB | 3.4 | 0 | 3.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.9% | 0.0% | 5.2% | 3.4 |
| Dion Lewis | RB | 3.3 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 0.0% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 3.7 |
| Quintez Cephus | WR | 3.3 | -1.3 | 0 | 0 | 3.3 | -1.3 | 0.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 2 |
| James Washington | WR | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5 |
| Adrian Peterson | RB | 3.2 | 0.8 | 2 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 20.2% | 2.5% | 5.5% | 4 |
| Austin Hooper | TE | 3.1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | -1 | 0.0% | 10.1% | 6.3% | 2.1 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | WR | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.0% | 10.1% | 6.3% | 3.6 |
| Ryan Nall | RB | 3.1 | -0.3 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 2.8 |
| Dawson Knox | TE | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.6 |
| Hunter Renfrow | WR | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.0% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 5 |
| Kaden Smith | TE | 3 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.2 | 0.0% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 3.2 |
| Colin Thompson | TE | 3 | 4.7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4.7 | 0.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.7 |
| Ross Dwelley | TE | 3 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.2 | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.2 |
| James White | RB | 2.9 | -0.1 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | -0.1 | 0.0% | 10.6% | 6.3% | 2.8 |
| Nick Westbrook | WR | 2.9 | -2.9 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | -2.9 | 0.0% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 0 |
| Terry Godwin | WR | 2.9 | -2.9 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | -2.9 | 0.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 0 |
| Drew Sample | TE | 2.9 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | -1 | 0.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 1.9 |
| Jared Cook | TE | 2.8 | -2.8 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | -2.8 | 0.0% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | WR | 2.8 | -0.5 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | -0.5 | 0.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 2.3 |
| Mike Thomas | WR | 2.8 | -2.8 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | -2.8 | 0.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 0 |
| Rodney Smith | RB | 2.8 | -0.3 | 1.4 | -0.1 | 1.4 | -0.2 | 18.9% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 2.5 |
| Mack Hollins | WR | 2.7 | -1.6 | 0 | 0 | 2.7 | -1.6 | 0.0% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 1.1 |
| Tyler Conklin | TE | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.0% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.1 |
| Jeremy McNichols | RB | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 6.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.4 |
| Boston Scott | RB | 2.7 | 11.7 | 1.4 | 10.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 12.3% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 14.4 |
| Alex Armah | RB | 2.6 | -1.1 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | -1.1 | 0.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 1.5 |
| Jordan Akins | TE | 2.6 | -1.1 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | -1.1 | 0.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 1.5 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | RB | 2.6 | -1.1 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | -1.1 | 0.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 1.5 |
| Chad Beebe | WR | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.6 |
| Peyton Barber | RB | 2.4 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 5.3% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.4 |
| Jakob Johnson | RB | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.0% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 4 |
| Zay Jones | WR | 2.3 | -0.7 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | -0.7 | 0.0% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 1.6 |
| Elijhaa Penny | RB | 2.3 | -2.3 | 2.3 | -2.3 | 0 | 0 | 10.1% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | RB | 2.3 | -0.1 | 2.3 | -0.1 | 0 | 0 | 23.2% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.2 |
| Isaac Nauta | TE | 2.2 | -2.2 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | -2.2 | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | WR | 2 | -0.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -0.5 | 0.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.5 |
| Justice Hill | RB | 2 | -0.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -0.7 | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.3 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | WR | 1.9 | -1.9 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | -1.9 | 0.0% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 0 |
| Donald Parham | TE | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.0% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.3 |
| Austin Walter | RB | 1.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | -0.2 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | RB | 1.8 | -1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.4 | -1.4 | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 0.5 |
| Jeff Badet | WR | 1.8 | -1.8 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | -1.8 | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0 |
| Bryan Edwards | WR | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.0% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.6 |
| Darren Fells | TE | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.5 |
| Tyler Ervin | RB | 1.7 | -0.4 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 4.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 1.3 |
| Benny Snell | RB | 1.7 | -0.5 | 1.7 | -0.5 | 0 | 0 | 13.2% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.2 |
| Adam Shaheen | TE | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.9 |
| C.J. Prosise | RB | 1.6 | -0.8 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | -0.8 | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 0.8 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | TE | 1.6 | -1.6 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6 | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | TE | 1.6 | -0.2 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | -0.2 | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.4 |
| Olabisi Johnson | WR | 1.6 | -1.6 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6 | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | WR | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.4 |
| Van Jefferson | WR | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.5 |
| Marcus Johnson | WR | 1.6 | -1.6 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6 | 0.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0 |
| Ryan Izzo | TE | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 3 |
| Khadarel Hodge | WR | 1.5 | -1.5 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 | 0.0% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 0 |
| Austin Mack | WR | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.9 |
| Patrick Ricard | RB | 1.5 | -0.3 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | -0.3 | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.2 |
| Alshon Jeffery | WR | 1.5 | -1.5 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0 |
| De'Michael Harris | WR | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.1 |
| Artavis Pierce | RB | 1.5 | -0.6 | 1.5 | -0.6 | 0 | 0 | 15.6% | 0.0% | 2.8% | 0.9 |
| Patrick Laird | RB | 1.5 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 9.3% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 1.9 |
| Khari Blasingame | RB | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.3 |
| Scott Miller | WR | 1.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.4 |
| Corey Clement | RB | 1.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 5.1 | 0 | 0 | 12.3% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 6.5 |
| Gabe Nabers | RB | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.9 |
| C.J. Ham | RB | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.8 |
| Jacob Hollister | TE | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.6 |
| Kenny Stills | WR | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.6 |
| Trenton Cannon | RB | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | RB | 1 | -0.6 | 1 | -0.6 | 0 | 0 | 6.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.4 |
| Ian Thomas | TE | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.7 |
| DeAndre Washington | RB | 0.9 | -0.7 | 0.9 | -0.7 | 0 | 0 | 5.6% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.2 |
| Kerryon Johnson | RB | 0.5 | -0.2 | 0.5 | -0.2 | 0 | 0 | 5.1% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.3 |
| Alex Erickson | WR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | WR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| Cullen Gillaspia | RB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | WR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| Diontae Spencer | WR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | WR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | WR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | RB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| James Proche | WR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| Joe Reed | WR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| K.J. Hill | WR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | WR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | WR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| Malik Taylor | WR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| Nsimba Webster | WR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | WR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
Crazy Two Week Stretches and the Predictive Power of Market Shares
We’ve just been through a two-week stretch in which J.D. McKissic was targeted 29 times. No running back since 2000 has had more targets over a two week period. Alvin Kamara had an equal number of targets in Weeks 3 and 4 of 2018. No player at any position had more total EP than McKissic in Week 10, as he not only saw 15 targets but also a goal-line carry, which he converted. Unfortunately, he only caught seven of his 15 targets, meaning he was also the leader in fantasy points below expectation among non-quarterbacks. As much as we might want to see more Antonio Gibson — especially as he outperformed his opportunity by 7.7 points — there’s little indication McKissic is going away.
Ronald Jones proved the predictive power of market share of rushing EP, rebounding from Week 9 to turn in a 192-yard game. It was the most efficient rushing game of Jones’ career, but rushing efficiency has never been something he’s struggled with.
However, he continues to be a liability in the passing game, and the coaching staff seems to have noticed, as he was targeted only twice.
This is just a reminder that Ke’Shawn Vaughn had a 13% receiving yardage market share in his final collegiate season to go along with a 0.79 Backfield Dominator Rating (BDR). Vaughn has only appeared in three games but easily leads the Bucs’ backfield in total FPOE.
The leader in Week 10 rush EP was a surprise, but maybe less so for readers who remember Wayne Gallman as a collegiate workhorse and have long stashed him as a result. Gallman now has back-to-back RB1 performances and has finished in the top 24 each of the last four weeks.
Rookie Wide Receivers Continue to Smash and a Surprise Sophomore Emerges
As if we needed more reasons to be excited about the 2020 rookie WR class, the Week 10 leader in receiving EP among WRs was Brandon Aiyuk. His 14 targets led all receivers. San Francisco has a Week 11 bye, and Deebo Samuel is likely to return in Week 12, which could hurt Aiyuk’s volume. However, a closer look at their target location profiles suggests Aiyuk and Samuel might not actually be competing with each other.
