Welcome to the game environment series. This series will provide several weekly games to target and fade, based on macro-level factors that impact fantasy production. For more on these factors, click here. We recommend using this in conjunction with our micro-level analysis, including the buy low report, the strength in numbers series, our quarterback, kicker, tight end, and defense streaming articles, and the slate of DFS analysis we provide.
Week 9 Review
Targets
- Seahawks at Bills
- Lions at Vikings
- Texans at Jaguars
Low-owned Game Stack
- Broncos at Falcons
Josh Allen and the Bills put on a fireworks display, eschewing the run game and throwing as much as possible. The Bills’ defense generated a few turnovers, but Russell Wilson continued his onslaught of fantasy points. Dalvin Cook was a cash game lock, and for good reason, as he again generated an elite performance. The Lions’ side was mildly disappointing, as each of their players failed to hit ceiling outcomes despite the shootout. The Texans and Jaguars traded long touchdowns, exceeding the projected average pace, and generating fantasy goodness. Drew Lock and Jerry Jeudy were in the winning DraftKings Millionaire Maker lineup at a combined 21% ownership. Though it cashed in a few tournaments, I was unfortunately on the Matt Ryan side of the low-owned game stack. However, that’s two weeks in a row it has included a quarterback in the winning Millionaire Maker lineup.
Fades
- Ravens at Colts
- Panthers at Chiefs
- Steelers at Cowboys
The Ravens-Colts matchup was the slow-paced game we expected, limiting fantasy production. The Steelers and Cowboys played a much more competitive game than expected, allowing Ben Roethlisberger to stay aggressive and hit a ceiling performance. The Panthers and Chiefs game overcame pace concerns with aggressive fourth down playcalling and high passing volume. On to week 10.
The Game Environment – Week 10
- Week 10 average total: 49.2 points
- Week 9 average total: 48.6 points
- Week 8 average total: 47.8 points
- Week 7 average total: 50.2 points
- Week 6 average total: 50.5 points
- Week 5 average total: 50.4 points
- Week 4 average total: 49.7 points
- Week 3 average total: 47.5 points
- Week 2 average total: 46 points
