Looking at the board this week, we have six of 11 games with a 50-plus point total and 13 of 22 teams with an implied total of 25 points or more. With so many high totals, ownership could spread out a bit leaving some guys under-owned relative to their ceiling. Let’s dive into the slate and see where we can find some leverage plays to climb our way to the top of the leaderboards on Sunday.
Pittsburgh at Tennessee
This game is projected to be within a couple of points and we’re staring at the two teams at the top of the leaderboard for plays per 60 minutes in a neutral script.
Depending on who you ask, Derrick Henry ($7,500) was a “fish play” last week. This probably deserves its own article but I thought I’d touch on how I approach it here. To be completely honest, historically, I haven’t played Henry much on DK. But, if the argument against playing him was the presence of Alexander Mattison and Henry’s lack of targets, then you haven’t been paying attention. On a per-game basis, Dalvin Cook[1] had only seen 0.8 more expected points in the receiving game than Henry. You can make arguments about Henry’s pass-game usage and what that means for his floor on DraftKings but you can’t deny his ceiling probability.
Footnotes
| ↑1 | who Mattison backs up |
|---|
