If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can look out how players actually perform with their opportunity — how many points they actually score — and arrive at a player’s fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). FPOE turns out to be a catch-all efficiency metric that accounts for both yards and touchdowns in a single number. Add EP (opportunity) and FPOE (efficiency) together, and you get a player’s actual fantasy output.
This weekly article will look at some of the leaders in expected points and try to tease out how fantasy gamers can take advantage of these various volume and efficiency situations. The relative lack of Week 3 injuries was a pleasant reprieve from the carnage of Week 2, and there was no shortage of explosive performances.
Running Backs Don’t Matter, Unless They’re Wide Receivers
You knew that was coming, but Week 3 proved it again in a big way. We’ll get to Alvin Kamara in a moment, but first, the Week 3 data:
