If you spend any time reading RotoViz, eventually you’ll hear us talking about expected points. Expected points (EP) are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation — down, distance, and field position. In other words, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as carries and targets, directly into fantasy points. From there we can look out how players actually perform with their opportunity — how many points they actually score — and arrive at a player’s fantasy points over expectation (FPOE). FPOE turns out to be a catch-all efficiency metric that accounts for both yards and touchdowns in a single number. Add EP (opportunity) and FPOE (efficiency) together, and you get a player’s actual fantasy output.
This weekly article will look at some of the leaders in expected points and try to tease out how fantasy gamers can take advantage of these various volume and efficiency situations. Week 2 is most notable for being the last time we’ll see many of our favorites on the field in 2020. Many others we will miss for possibly the next month or more. But it was also notable in that it gave us several standout performances. First, the Week 2 data:
