All season long Zachary Krueger will go in-depth with all of the key wide receiver performances. Providing weekly targets, air yards breakdowns, and fantasy points over expectation trends, he’ll help you dominate the waiver wire and make the best start/sit decisions in your upcoming fantasy football matchups.

Like frost blanketed across the grass on a crisp fall morning, nothing is more beautiful than logging into the RotoViz Weekly Stat Explorer and seeing those fresh stats. As a Russell Gage fan, I could stare at his 9/114/0 receiving line all morning over a hot cup of coffee, salivating at the idea of him receiving similar volume in Week 2.

An even more exciting way to start your day could be by digging into the air yards Will Fuller received on Thursday night against the Chiefs. After all, it’s not everyday that a receiver just stumbles into 46% of his team’s air yards.

These Week 1 receiving numbers are just a few stats that we’ll emphasize as we head into Week 2. Through the assessment of valuable numbers such as targets, air yards and expected fantasy points we’ll cover all the angles and help you better understand every receiver.

Tasked with the tremendous honor of writing this weekly column, I hope we all get a chance to learn something of value through this weekly dive on WRs. With the goal of winning fantasy championships at the forefront of my mind for the next 16 weeks, let’s take a look at some Week 1 performances!

Week 1 Target Recap

All jokes about drooling over my coffee aside, Russell Gage’s 12 targets were a pleasant surprise in Week 1. The Falcons stuck to the preseason narrative of being one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league, as the trio of Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Gage each received 12 targets and eclipsed 100 receiving yards. Atlanta’s pass-heavy approach last week against the Seahawks may have had more to do with the negative script in a game they ended up losing 38-25, but I wouldn’t be so quick to ignore Gage’s numbers.

Looking back at his last 10 games, Gage is tied for 17th in targets per game (7.8) among all wide receivers.^[1]Minimum of eight games played. Gage’s 12 targets from last week weren’t even a career high for him, as he was targeted 13 times in Week 17 last year. Gage’s 20.4 fantasy points (WR11) did set a new career mark.

With the Falcons defense looking like a sieve at home against the Seahawks, negative script could become a norm. Atlanta gets a talented Cowboys offense in Week 2 that’s coming off a tough loss in their opener against the Rams.

If you find yourself already looking for a new WR3/4, Gage is a sure bet to outproduce his offseason FFPC draft slot of 269.5. His 7.8 targets per game over his last 10 puts him on a 16-game pace for 125 total targets. That would have been the 16th most among WRs in 2019.

By contrast, I’m fading the Week 1 target numbers for Quintez Cephus.

Last week, Cephus became only the 16th WR since 2000 to see 10-plus targets in his rookie debut.

While Cephus’ high-volume debut looks good on the surface, it’s worth noting a few things.

First and foremost, Cephus’ performance came without Kenny Golladay (hamstring). Had Golladay been healthy, Cephus would have been hard pressed to see the field, much less 10 targets.

Moreover, Cephus was the second-most inefficient WR in Week 1, posting -9.2 fantasy points over expectation (reFPOE). He turned his 10 targets into a dismal receiving line of 3/43/0 and only 7.3 PPR points. While his debut makes him an interesting dynasty stash, I’m not trying to jam Cephus into any Week 2 lineups.

In the same way I would be rushing to the waiver wire to add Gage, I’m just as quickly moving away from any thoughts of adding Cephus.

Week 1 Expected Points Recap