We’re heading to Los Angeles for the Genesis Invitational this week. There are few fields in golf outside of the majors that boast a field like this. That means there is plenty of money to go around on DraftKings. If you’re interested in a deeper, statistical dive you can head over to last year’s preview article.
Expected Birdies Explained
Expected Birdies measure course fit in a unique way. Most analysis of golf courses looks at historical approach data and tries to fit a narrative around that. We’re well aware that a golfer’s approach distance on a given hole is tied to driving distance. To just blindly say that every golfer in the field will fit into that distribution is foolish. I look at a golfer’s driving distance, simulate thousands of drives and apply those results to the week’s scorecard to measure how well a golfer fits the course. Here are the results from this week.
Name Salary BoB Score
Rory McIlroy 11600 96
Jon Rahm 11200 99
Justin Thomas 11000 90
Tiger Woods 10400 91
Dustin Johnson 10000 85
Patrick Cantlay 9800 93
Bubba Watson 9600 93
Brooks Koepka 9400 81
Hideki Matsuyama 9300 89
Xander Schauffele 9200 93
Tony Finau 9100 87
Adam Scott 9000 84
Jason Day 8800 84
Marc Leishman 8700 87
Patrick Reed 8600 86
Justin Rose 8500 80
Jordan Spieth 8400 94
Phil Mickelson 8300 91
Abraham Ancer 8200 93
Collin Morikawa 8100 86
Sungjae Im 8000 80
Bryson DeChambeau 7900 95
Paul Casey 7900 91
Sergio Garcia 7800 74
Matt Kuchar 7800 83
Matthew Fitzpatrick 7700 85
J.B. Holmes 7700 83
Ryan Moore 7600 89
Kevin Na 7600 81
Charles Howell III 7500 100
Branden Grace 7500 82
Max Homa 7500 87
Cameron Smith 7500 77
Brendon Todd 7400 90
Ryan Palmer 7400 99
Scottie Scheffler 7400 84
Cameron Champ 7400 88
Keegan Bradley 7300 5
Alex Noren 7300 82
Rafa Cabrera Bello 7300 78
Joaquin Niemann 7300 99
Russell Knox 7200 90
Scott Piercy 7200 85
Adam Hadwin 7200 87
Nick Taylor 7200 86
Jason Kokrak 7100 90
Matthew Wolff 7100 83
Danny Willett 7100 83
Chez Reavie 7100 80
Corey Conners 7000 83
Jim Furyk 7000 79
Bud Cauley 7000 86
Erik Van Rooyen 7000 73
Francesco Molinari 7000 76
Rory Sabbatini 6900 91
Matt Jones 6900 94
Emiliano Grillo 6900 74
J.T. Poston 6900 92
Brian Harman 6900 98
Jhonattan Vegas 6800 84
Patrick Rodgers 6800 80
Carlos Ortiz 6800 89
Lanto Griffin 6800 79
Andrew Putnam 6800 76
Charley Hoffman 6700 82
Sung Kang 6700 0
Aaron Wise 6700 79
Nate Lashley 6700 87
Dylan Frittelli 6700 78
Wyndham Clark 6600 83
Luke List 6600 82
Denny McCarthy 6600 63
Nick Watney 6600 84
Vaughn Taylor 6600 81
Joel Dahmen 6500 88
Cameron Tringale 6500 82
James Hahn 6500 83
Martin Laird 6500 75
Sebastian Munoz 6500 83
Pat Perez 6500 81
Scott Stallings 6400 74
Michael Thompson 6400 79
Kyle Stanley 6400 82
Adam Schenk 6400 93
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 6400 77
Danny Lee 6400 76
Russell Henley 6300 85
Peter Malnati 6300 83
Jason Dufner 6300 86
Kevin Chappell 6300 78
Talor Gooch 6300 78
Andrew Landry 6300 92
Aaron Baddeley 6300 88
Adam Long 6300 88
Bronson Burgoon 6200 80
Sam Burns 6200 84
C.T. Pan 6200 86
Troy Merritt 6200 84
Kevin Tway 6200 83
Jimmy Walker 6200 81
Sam Ryder 6200 77
Harold Varner III 6200 83
Tyler Duncan 6100 73
Brian Stuard 6100 94
Steve Stricker 6100 91
Matt Every 6100 88
Si Woo Kim 6100 68
Brian Gay 6100 78
Sepp Straka 6100 90
Joseph Bramlett 6100 73
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 6000 88
Chris Stroud 6000 77
Roger Sloan 6000 92
Scott Brown 6000 77
J.J. Spaun 6000 73
Kyongjun Moon 6000 69
Ryan Armour 6000 78
Martin Trainer 6000 59
Jim Herman 6000 73
Standouts
Jon Rahm ($11,200) has the best course fit of golfers with a five-figure salary. Rory McIlroy ($11,600) is very close behind. Sitting here telling you to consider Rahm and Rory seems like a waste of time, though, so let’s turn our attention towards some cheaper options.
The $7,000 range is ripe with options. Charles Howell III ($7,500), Ryan Palmer ($7,400), Joaquin Niemann ($7,300) and Bryson DeChambeau ($7,900) are all at 95-plus in Expected Birdies Score heading into the weekend.
After his top-10 finish, Jordan Spieth ($8,400) is riding high as we tee things off at Riviera CC. His score of 94 is the best mark in the $8,000 Range.
