Last July, I wrote an article about the running back dead zone — basically, RBs picked in Rounds 3 through 6 have busted at incredible rates since 2015. That article — along with several others which had similar findings — fundamentally changed my strategy in best ball drafts.
Oops.[1]
Leonard Fournette, Aaron Jones, Chris Carson, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Mark Ingram, and James White (just to name a few) did not get the memo that they were supposed to be bad. Rather, they decided to be very good.
| Round | 2015-18 Number of Players | 2015-18 Average PPR Scoring | 2015-18 Average Win Rate | 2019 Number of Players | 2019 Average PPR Scoring | 2019 Average Win Rate |
| 3 | 15 | 148.9 | 7.7% | 6 | 181.9 | 8.5% |
| 4 | 21 | 125.4 | 7.1% | 4 | 207.2 | 8.7% |
| 5 | 17 | 137.4 | 8.6% | 6 | 185.6 | 7.6% |
| 6 | 18 | 117.8 | 7.9% | 3 | 63.3 | 6.0% |
| Combined | 71 | 131.3 | 7.8% | 19 | 169.7 | 7.8% |
RBs in the so-called “dead zone” were not so dead in 2019, scoring an average of 169.7 points, 29.2% higher than the average from the previous four years. Rounds 3 and 4 were especially lucrative for runners, as both rounds sported an above-average win rate and absolutely gaudy PPR scoring numbers. This raises the question: Is the RB dead zone dead?
Why were these running backs so good in 2019?
Footnotes
| ↑1 | Maybe. |
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