There’s an overwhelming amount of statistics in golf. You can go down the rabbit hole and zoom into proximity from certain distances or swing speeds. We’ve even seen apex height touted around the industry. The way I’ve always approached model building for golf has been from a course fit perspective. Looking at how a course has played in the past and trying to find golfers that fit there from a statistical perspective has been an invaluable part of my process. I’m not going totally away from that, but there’s a certain beauty in simplicity. We want to roster good golfers. We want the guys that we click to score well. One of the best ways to determine whether or not a golfer will score well in an upcoming event is judging their talent and form over the short term and over the long term. We don’t want to miss out on the golfers who are playing well in short spurts, but we don’t want to overweight that either and miss out on supremely talented golfers over a longer timeframe.
Power Ranking Explained
I wanted to come up with a way to quantify how a golfer performs so, rather than diving into each individual aspect of a golfer’s game, I looked at how a golfer scores relative to the field, course, etc. The raw scores from the model indicate how a golfer is expected to perform relative to the field each round. Instead of just looking at one time frame, the model incorporates both long term and short term scoring and blends it together in a way that captures both talent and recent form. It’s an easy way to see the difference between the talent and form of different golfers. Since it doesn’t incorporate recently introduced stats like strokes gained, we were able to backtest the model all the way back to 1991.
Historical Performance
The variance in golf is mind-blowing at times. Regardless of how much you trust a given expert or model of your own, you have to know that sometimes there’s only so much you can explain and predict. At the Rocket Mortgage Classic, for example, we saw the last guy in the field get to 25-under and win the event while Dustin Johnson – the odds on favorite – didn’t even play the weekend. We want to feel reasonably comfortable that the way we value these golfers is the way they’re most likely to finish.
That’s why it’s important to backtest the model using as large a sample as possible. Although week-to-week variation is unavoidable, over a long enough time horizon we want a model that allows to get things right more often than not. Therefore, in order to test the model, I grouped the golfers in buckets and looked back over the last 28 years. Here are the finish rates for each group since 1991.
Power Ranking - Historical Results
| Power Ranking | Win Rate | Top 5 Rate | Top 10 Rate | Top 20 Rate | Outside Top 70 Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2 and Better | 11.3 | 30.5 | 45.1 | 62.4 | 13.8 |
| -2 to -1.5 | 4.1 | 19 | 30.6 | 48.1 | 17.2 |
| -1.5 to -1 | 2.0 | 11.1 | 20.1 | 34.9 | 26.3 |
| -1 to -0.5 | 1.2 | 7.1 | 14 | 26.1 | 34.5 |
| -0.5 to 0 | 0.6 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 18.8 | 42.5 |
| 0 to 0.5 | 0.4 | 3 | 6.2 | 13.5 | 50.8 |
| 0.5 to 1 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 9.4 | 58.1 |
| 1 to 1.5 | 0.1 | 1 | 2 | 5.3 | 68.2 |
| 1.5 to 2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 76.5 |
| 2 to 2.5 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 2.3 | 82.3 |
| 2.5 and Worse | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 89.7 |
As you can see, the model itself predicts finishing position fairly accurately. Whichever group you choose to look at outperforms each of the groups that follow below it with an inferior power ranking.
Below is a first run of the model for the Open Championship.
The Open Championship - Model Results
There are "NAs" in the table. Many of them are because I don't have enough data in the set to run the numbers because of limited Euro data.For a look at how the model has performed historically search "Introduction to Power Ranking Model" above.
| Name | Salary | Power Ranking | Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | 11600 | -2.95 | 18.9 |
| Brooks Koepka | 11400 | -1.41 | 16.9 |
| Dustin Johnson | 10900 | -2 | 11.9 |
| Jon Rahm | 10600 | -2 | 18.9 |
| Tiger Woods | 10200 | -1.68 | 7.15 |
| Justin Rose | 9900 | -2.03 | 12.9 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 9700 | -1.35 | 10.84 |
| Xander Schauffele | 9500 | -1.42 | 18.9 |
| Francesco Molinari | 9400 | -0.61 | 9.15 |
| Rickie Fowler | 9300 | -1.28 | 7.15 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 9200 | -1.49 | 8.91 |
| Justin Thomas | 9100 | -1.24 | 14.15 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 9000 | -2.13 | 21.9 |
| Jordan Spieth | 8900 | -0.72 | 8.15 |
| Adam Scott | 8800 | -1.88 | 24.18 |
| Matt Kuchar | 8700 | -1.97 | 23.93 |
| Jason Day | 8600 | -1.08 | 8.65 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 8500 | -1.99 | 14.9 |
| Henrik Stenson | 8400 | -1.15 | 28.07 |
| Paul Casey | 8300 | -1.53 | 10.9 |
| Gary Woodland | 8200 | -1.4 | 8.74 |
| Matt Wallace | 8100 | -0.6 | 7.9 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 8000 | -0.61 | 4.9 |
| Shane Lowry | 7900 | -1.18 | 8.26 |
| Graeme McDowell | 7900 | -1.12 | 10.19 |
| Tony Finau | 7800 | -0.62 | 7.9 |
| Sergio Garcia | 7800 | -0.77 | 8.9 |
| Marc Leishman | 7700 | -0.86 | 15.9 |
| Ian Poulter | 7700 | -0.45 | 5.48 |
| Webb Simpson | 7600 | -1.59 | 15.9 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 7600 | -0.51 | 6.75 |
| Eddie Pepperell | 7600 | -0.8 | 9.75 |
| Phil Mickelson | 7500 | 0.36 | 5 |
| Rafael Cabrera Bello | 7500 | -0.58 | 15.35 |
| Danny Willett | 7500 | -0.39 | 2.73 |
| Lee Westwood | 7400 | 0.5 | 3.28 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 7400 | -0.87 | 8.82 |
| Patrick Reed | 7400 | -1.01 | 9.75 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 7400 | -0.9 | 4.66 |
| Branden Grace | 7300 | 0.33 | 0.91 |
| Alexander Noren | 7300 | 0.28 | 2.4 |
| Kevin Kisner | 7300 | -0.65 | 1 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 7300 | -0.15 | 3.47 |
| Hao-Tong Li | 7300 | 0 | 5.92 |
| Abraham Ancer | 7200 | -0.13 | 1.83 |
| Jason Kokrak | 7200 | -0.76 | 3.75 |
| Zach Johnson | 7200 | -0.34 | 5.6 |
| Bubba Watson | 7200 | -0.25 | 2.46 |
| Padraig Harrington | 7200 | 1.09 | 0.36 |
| Erik Van Rooyen | 7100 | -1.19 | 7 |
| Chez Reavie | 7100 | -1.77 | 4.32 |
| Russell Knox | 7100 | -0.89 | 2.47 |
| Emiliano Grillo | 7100 | -0.84 | 3.5 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | 7100 | -1.21 | 8.25 |
| Jim Furyk | 7100 | -1.22 | 2.99 |
| Byeong-Hun An | 7000 | -0.62 | 2.91 |
| Thomas Pieters | 7000 | -0.92 | 1.11 |
| Sung-jae Im | 7000 | -1.04 | 1.05 |
| Keegan Bradley | 7000 | -0.67 | 1.13 |
| Andy Sullivan | 7000 | NA | 3.59 |
| Kevin Streelman | 7000 | -1.27 | 0.56 |
| Mike Lorenzo-Vera | 7000 | NA | 3.91 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 6900 | -1.15 | 8 |
| Aaron Wise | 6900 | -0.63 | 0.9 |
| Jorge Campillo | 6900 | 3.19 | 0.2 |
| Billy Horschel | 6900 | -0.87 | 3.32 |
| Cameron Smith | 6900 | 0.29 | 1 |
| Adam Hadwin | 6900 | -1.02 | 1.96 |
| Joost Luiten | 6800 | -0.13 | 1.12 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | 6800 | -0.23 | 0.96 |
| Lucas Bjerregaard | 6800 | -0.3 | 1.34 |
| Charles Howell III | 6800 | -0.89 | 1.3 |
| Cheng-Tsung Pan | 6800 | -0.26 | 4 |
| Ryan Fox | 6700 | NA | 1.06 |
| Kyle Stanley | 6700 | 0.14 | 1.4 |
| Charley Hoffman | 6700 | -0.27 | 1.03 |
| Luke List | 6700 | 0.27 | 0.64 |
| Si Woo Kim | 6700 | -0.01 | 0.59 |
| Alexander Bjork | 6700 | 1.1 | 0.56 |
| Tom Lewis | 6700 | 2.72 | 0.57 |
| Robert Macintyre | 6700 | NA | 0.2 |
| Andrew Putnam | 6600 | -0.87 | 3.11 |
| Jimmy Walker | 6600 | -0.4 | 0.39 |
| Paul Waring | 6600 | -0.52 | 2.38 |
| J.B. Holmes | 6600 | 0.13 | 0.95 |
| Robert Rock | 6600 | NA | 0.34 |
| Romain Langasque | 6600 | NA | 1.47 |
| Jazz Janewattananond | 6600 | -0.9 | 0.35 |
| Adri Arnaus | 6600 | 0.56 | 0.2 |
| Lucas Glover | 6500 | -0.89 | 3.34 |
| Adrian Otaegui | 6500 | 0.85 | 0.47 |
| Brandon Stone | 6500 | NA | 0.81 |
| David Lipsky | 6500 | NA | 0.84 |
| Keith Mitchell | 6500 | -0.48 | 0.72 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 6500 | NA | 1.01 |
| Ryan Palmer | 6500 | -0.32 | 0.87 |
| Alexander Levy | 6500 | NA | 0.35 |
| Mikko Korhonen | 6500 | NA | 0.35 |
| Shugo Imahira | 6400 | 0.49 | 0.52 |
| Andrea Pavan | 6400 | NA | 2.24 |
| Justin Harding | 6400 | -0.44 | 0.95 |
| Joel Dahmen | 6400 | -0.27 | 0.93 |
| Stewart Cink | 6400 | -0.17 | 0.45 |
| Prom Meesawat | 6400 | 2.5 | 0.17 |
| Brandon Wu | 6400 | NA | 0.22 |
| Richard Sterne | 6400 | 1.61 | 0.33 |
| Oliver Wilson | 6400 | 0.56 | 0.46 |
| Corey Conners | 6300 | -0.44 | 0.9 |
| Patton Kizzire | 6300 | 0.62 | 0.29 |
| Chris Wood | 6300 | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| Nate Lashley | 6300 | -1.09 | 0.32 |
| Connor Syme | 6300 | NA | 0.16 |
| Zander Lombard | 6300 | NA | 0.24 |
| Kurt Kitayama | 6300 | 0.49 | 0.3 |
| Sung-Hoon Kang | 6300 | -0.59 | 0.61 |
| Miguel Angel Jimenez | 6300 | -0.22 | 0.1 |
| Callum Shinkwin | 6200 | NA | 0.81 |
| Jack Senior | 6200 | NA | 0.08 |
| Thomas Thurloway | 6200 | NA | 0.11 |
| Yuki Inamori | 6200 | NA | 0.24 |
| Yuta Ikeda | 6200 | 0.96 | 0.26 |
| Darren Clarke | 6200 | 2.23 | 0.18 |
| Doc Redman | 6200 | NA | 0.23 |
| Yoshinori Fujimoto | 6200 | 1.73 | 0.24 |
| Sang-hyun Park | 6200 | NA | 0.31 |
| Ernie Els | 6200 | 0.56 | 0.65 |
| Chan Kim | 6100 | NA | 0.12 |
| Shubhankar Sharma | 6100 | NA | 0.21 |
| Takumi Kanaya | 6100 | NA | 0.05 |
| Tom Lehman | 6100 | -0.86 | 0.08 |
| David Duval | 6100 | 2.64 | 0.08 |
| Sam Locke | 6100 | NA | 0.08 |
| Gunn Charoenkul | 6100 | NA | 0.11 |
| Dimi Papadatos | 6100 | NA | 0.13 |
| Paul Lawrie | 6100 | -0.01 | 0.15 |
| Mikumu Horikawa | 6100 | NA | 0.21 |
| Jake McLeod | 6100 | NA | 0.21 |
| Shaun Norris | 6100 | 3.35 | 0.37 |
| James Sugrue | 6000 | NA | 0.13 |
| Andrew Wilson | 6000 | NA | 0.11 |
| Austin Connelly | 6000 | 2.9 | 0.03 |
| Garrick Porteous | 6000 | NA | 0.03 |
| Matthew Baldwin | 6000 | -1 | 0.04 |
| Inn Choon Hwang | 6000 | NA | 0.04 |
| Yosuke Asaji | 6000 | NA | 0.04 |
| Dong-Kyu Jang | 6000 | NA | 0.05 |
| Doyeob Mun | 6000 | NA | 0.05 |
| Ashton Turner | 6000 | NA | 0.06 |
| Curtis Knipes | 6000 | NA | 0.06 |
| Isidro Benitez | 6000 | NA | 0.06 |
| Matthias Schmid | 6000 | NA | 0.06 |
Image Credit: Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Rory McIlroy.
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