Muirfield Village GC has played host to the Memorial Tournament since 1976. It was a bit shorter back then, but other than that it is still familiar. It’s a par 72 that plays right around 7,400 yards. There’s a fair bit of trouble around this track with the golfers contending with 73 bunkers and 13 water hazards. The bentgrass greens here run at some of the highest speeds on Tour. For a more in-depth look at how the course has played in the past, check out the course preview article.
Checking the Chalk
Matt Kuchar ($9,400) is going to approach uber-chalk status this week. Course history? A quick scan of his last five results here shows five straight made cuts with nothing worse than a T26 finish. Recent form? He’s made 15 straight cuts and has nothing worse than a T12 finish in his last four starts. Over his past five events, Kuchar has averaged over 5.0 SG: Approach per the RotoViz Splits App. That represents an increase of 4-plus strokes gained in that category versus his baseline since the start of 2017.
Patrick Cantlay ($10,200) is shaping up to be popular this week, as well. Cantlay gained a career-high 10.2 strokes on approach at this event last year en route to a fourth place finish. He comes into this year’s event with three straight top tens including back-to-back third-place efforts. Cantlay has added six top-15 finishes to his resume in just eight starts.
GPP Plays
Kuchar as a popular play is certainly warranted. But, if you’re looking to pivot elsewhere for lower ownership then Justin Thomas ($9,300) and/or Hideki Matsuyama ($9,100) makes sense. Thomas is coming off of a WD because of his wrist injury. I can’t imagine a world where he risks his health a couple of weeks out from the U.S. Open. If you listened to the podcast this week, you know I’ve picked JT to win this week. Thomas averages nearly a full extra stroke tee to gain on courses longer than 7,300 yards. Matsuyama has won here before and is cheap relative to his talent level. He hasn’t flashed his upside recently, but Hideki makes sense from a fit perspective.
Note: As you can see in the projections below, JT seems like he’ll be a bit more popular than I originally anticipated. That isn’t slowing me down from rostering him, though.
Rory Sabbatini ($8,300) is on his longest cuts made streak in quite some time. With that streak, comes some notoriety for the 118th ranked golfer in the world. Finding the extra $400 might be worth it this week, though, to pay for Adam Scott ($8,700). In 2019, Scott has positive splits on courses longer than 7,300 yards. He’s averaging over seven more strokes gained tee to green on longer courses so far this season.
Cash Locks
So far this season, the totals for the cash locks are 33/38 made cuts, 22/38 top 30s, and 12/38 top 10s. Here are this week’s cash locks:
- Patrick Cantlay ($10,200)
- Adam Scott ($8,700)
Ownership Projections and Model Results - The Memorial Tournament
FINAL UPDATE| Name | DK$ | Projected Ownership | Model Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | 11500.0 | 15.9 | 0.77 |
| Tiger Woods | 11200.0 | 19.2 | 1.00 |
| Justin Rose | 10800.0 | 13.9 | 0.72 |
| Rickie Fowler | 10600.0 | 17.3 | 0.93 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 10200.0 | 24.3 | 0.83 |
| Jordan Spieth | 9900.0 | 9.3 | 0.23 |
| Tony Finau | 9600.0 | 14.7 | 0.17 |
| Matt Kuchar | 9400.0 | 29.4 | 0.62 |
| Justin Thomas | 9300.0 | 14.3 | 0.90 |
| Jason Day | 9200.0 | 8.3 | 0.47 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 9100.0 | 19.4 | 0.70 |
| Xander Schauffele | 9000.0 | 10.2 | 0.21 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 8900.0 | 5.7 | 0.04 |
| Gary Woodland | 8800.0 | 20.3 | 0.60 |
| Adam Scott | 8700.0 | 16.3 | 0.75 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 8600.0 | 2.3 | 0.66 |
| Henrik Stenson | 8500.0 | 10.3 | 0.61 |
| Rory Sabbatini | 8300.0 | 12.7 | 0.46 |
| Jason Kokrak | 8200.0 | 15.9 | 0.27 |
| Phil Mickelson | 8100.0 | 6.3 | 0.20 |
| Marc Leishman | 8000.0 | 8.6 | 0.10 |
| Emiliano Grillo | 7900.0 | 16.5 | 0.35 |
| Kevin Kisner | 7900.0 | 7.1 | 0.03 |
| Kyle Stanley | 7800.0 | 13.3 | 0.13 |
| Lucas Glover | 7800.0 | 10.9 | 0.66 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 7700.0 | 11.8 | 0.66 |
| Billy Horschel | 7700.0 | 6.9 | 0.54 |
| Sung-Hoon Kang | 7700.0 | 6.7 | 0.36 |
| Keegan Bradley | 7600.0 | 16.8 | 0.78 |
| Luke List | 7600.0 | 12.2 | 0.40 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 7600.0 | 7.0 | 0.19 |
| Jim Furyk | 7500.0 | 12.1 | 0.75 |
| Hao-Tong Li | 7500.0 | 7.5 | 0.16 |
| Rafael Cabrera Bello | 7500.0 | 4.1 | 0.03 |
| Byeong-Hun An | 7400.0 | 9.3 | 0.67 |
| Kevin Streelman | 7400.0 | 7.8 | 0.33 |
| Jason Dufner | 7400.0 | 5.0 | 0.42 |
| Charley Hoffman | 7400.0 | 4.4 | 0.07 |
| Aaron Wise | 7300.0 | 8.4 | 0.71 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 7300.0 | 5.2 | 0.08 |
| Ryan Moore | 7300.0 | 4.9 | 0.16 |
| Charles Howell III | 7300.0 | 1.4 | 0.55 |
| Peter Uihlein | 7200.0 | 8.8 | 0.19 |
| Andrew Putnam | 7200.0 | 4.7 | 0.09 |
| Abraham Ancer | 7200.0 | 2.9 | 0.08 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 7200.0 | 2.6 | 0.19 |
| Keith Mitchell | 7100.0 | 4.7 | 0.16 |
| Russell Knox | 7100.0 | 4.1 | 0.55 |
| Adam Hadwin | 7100.0 | 4.0 | 0.40 |
| Alexander Noren | 7100.0 | 1.7 | 0.02 |
| Pat Perez | 7100.0 | 1.4 | 0.12 |
| Joel Dahmen | 7000.0 | 4.5 | 0.19 |
| Si Woo Kim | 7000.0 | 3.2 | 0.08 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | 7000.0 | 1.4 | 0.02 |
| Cameron Smith | 7000.0 | 1.4 | 0.05 |
| Austin Cook | 7000.0 | 0.8 | 0.03 |
| Corey Conners | 6900.0 | 10.2 | 0.28 |
| Talor Gooch | 6900.0 | 4.9 | 0.04 |
| Harold Varner | 6900.0 | 3.8 | 0.34 |
| J.B. Holmes | 6900.0 | 3.0 | 0.07 |
| Danny Lee | 6900.0 | 1.5 | 0.08 |
| Matt Every | 6800.0 | 6.2 | 0.03 |
| Branden Grace | 6800.0 | 2.4 | 0.08 |
| Sam Burns | 6800.0 | 0.8 | 0.03 |
| Martin Kaymer | 6800.0 | 0.6 | 0.02 |
| Beau Hossler | 6800.0 | 0.6 | 0.04 |
| Nick Watney | 6700.0 | 6.4 | 0.26 |
| Sung-Jae Im | 6700.0 | 4.3 | 0.38 |
| Max Homa | 6700.0 | 1.8 | 0.04 |
| Bud Cauley | 6700.0 | 1.1 | 0.56 |
| Brian Stuard | 6700.0 | 0.6 | 0.25 |
| Bill Haas | 6700.0 | 0.4 | 0.20 |
| Danny Willett | 6600.0 | 1.0 | 0.06 |
| Brian Gay | 6600.0 | 0.6 | 0.11 |
| JT Poston | 6600.0 | 0.4 | 0.05 |
| Chesson Hadley | 6600.0 | 0.4 | 0.00 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 6600.0 | 0.4 | 0.08 |
| Anirban Lahiri | 6600.0 | 0.4 | 0.00 |
| Joost Luiten | 6500.0 | 3.6 | 0.17 |
| Matt Jones | 6500.0 | 1.3 | 0.11 |
| Peter Malnati | 6500.0 | 1.0 | 0.01 |
| J.J. Spaun | 6500.0 | 0.6 | 0.04 |
| Patton Kizzire | 6500.0 | 0.4 | 0.00 |
| Brian Harman | 6500.0 | 0.4 | 0.05 |
| Cameron Champ | 6400.0 | 1.7 | 0.13 |
| Andrew Landry | 6400.0 | 0.6 | 0.05 |
| Adam Schenk | 6400.0 | 0.4 | 0.05 |
| Scott Stallings | 6400.0 | 0.4 | 0.04 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | 6400.0 | 0.4 | 0.10 |
| Justin Suh | 6400.0 | 0.2 | 0.00 |
| David Lingmerth | 6300.0 | 4.7 | 0.12 |
| Steve Stricker | 6300.0 | 2.0 | 0.40 |
| Ryan Fox | 6300.0 | 0.6 | 0.04 |
| Kelly Kraft | 6300.0 | 0.4 | 0.20 |
| Michael Thompson | 6300.0 | 0.4 | 0.12 |
| Brice Garnett | 6300.0 | 0.4 | 0.11 |
| Robert Streb | 6300.0 | 0.2 | 0.06 |
| Adam Long | 6200.0 | 1.3 | 0.31 |
| David Lipsky | 6200.0 | 0.9 | 0.08 |
| Troy Merritt | 6200.0 | 0.8 | 0.02 |
| Vaughn Taylor | 6200.0 | 0.8 | 0.13 |
| Luke Donald | 6200.0 | 0.6 | 0.11 |
| Shubhankar Sharma | 6200.0 | 0.4 | 0.01 |
| Brendan Steele | 6200.0 | 0.2 | 0.11 |
| Sam Ryder | 6100.0 | 1.0 | 0.02 |
| Ryan Armour | 6100.0 | 0.4 | 0.27 |
| Ted Potter Jr | 6100.0 | 0.2 | 0.01 |
| Bronson Burgoon | 6100.0 | 0.2 | 0.01 |
| Carlos Ortiz | 6100.0 | 0.2 | 0.07 |
| Scott Brown | 6100.0 | 0.2 | 0.03 |
| K.J. Choi | 6100.0 | 0.2 | 0.08 |
| Jovan Rebula | 6100.0 | 0.2 | 0.00 |
| Boo Weekley | 6000.0 | 0.6 | 0.28 |
| Norman Xiong | 6000.0 | 0.6 | 0.09 |
| Meen Whee Kim | 6000.0 | 0.2 | 0.00 |
| Martin Trainer | 6000.0 | 0.2 | 0.07 |
| Ernie Els | 6000.0 | 0.2 | 0.10 |
| Michael Kim | 6000.0 | 0.2 | 0.04 |
| Alvaro Ortiz | 6000.0 | 0.2 | 0.02 |
| Will Grimmer | 6000.0 | 0.2 | 0.01 |
Image Credit: David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Justin Thomas.
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