We’re back at it after a solid week in Quail Hollow as the PGA Tour heads to Trinity Forest Golf Club to play the AT&T Byron Nelson. This is only the second time that this course has been played on tour so we’re not quite flying blind, but we don’t have as much information as a normal week. The course itself is unique. It’s a par 71 that plays 7,400 yards. The greens average right around 13,000 square feet. With the exception of some of the Open Championship courses, these are just about the largest greens you’ll see. The course is littered with 85 bunkers but no water hazards.
PAST WINNERS
| Golfer | Year | Winning Score | DraftKings Points |
| Aaron Wise | 2018 | -23 | 132 |
OFF THE TEE
It’s difficult to make any sweeping generalizations based off of one year of data. But the correlations pretty clearly skew towards accuracy off the tee. Four of the seven golfers that managed to break 100 DK points last year finished in the top 10 of driving accuracy compared to just one that hit that mark in Driving Distance. Driving Accuracy had a 0.11 r-squared to DK scoring versus a 0.01 for distance. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee was 0.11 as well, and I think that’s a more reasonable way to capture some distance with accuracy for Trinity Forest this week.
| SG: OTT Rank (Last 24 Rounds) | Golfer (Salary) |
| 1 | Keith Mitchell ($9,100) |
| 2 | Abraham Ancer ($7,600) |
| 3 | Hideki Matsuyama ($11,000) |
| 4 | Aaron Wise ($9,400) |
| 5 | Daniel Berger ($7,500) |
| 6 | Andrew Landry ($7,200) |
| 7 | Rafa Cabrera-Bello ($8,600) |
| 8 | K.H. Lee ($7,500) |
| 9 | Tom Lovelady ($6,200) |
| 10 | Rory Sabbatini ($9,000) |
ON APPROACH
Simply hitting greens isn’t enough this week as the field average was over 76% last year. This is an interesting week because there aren’t many courses that allow golfers to hit three-quarters of their greens in regulation. That means that our approach numbers are important but it also gives a slight bump to Strokes Gained: Around the Green since there is more of an emphasis on getting up and down for par on those rare missed opportunities. Last year, of the seven golfers who finished with 100-plus DK points, five finished in the top 25 of greens in regulation for the week.
| GIR Rank (Last 24 Rounds) | Golfer (Salary) |
| 1 | K.H. Lee ($7,500) |
| 2 | Russell Knox ($8,000) |
| 3 | Scottie Scheffler ($7,900) |
| 4 | Ryan Palmer (8,000) |
| 5 | Hank Lebioda ($6,700) |
| 6 | Henrik Stenson ($10,300) |
| 7 | Brooks Koepka ($11,400) |
| 8 | Nate Lashley ($6,300) |
| 9 | Trey Mullinax ($7,600) |
| 10 | Sungjae Im ($9,600) |
Key Stats
- Greens in Regulation
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
