The Cowboys’ running back depth chart was one of the least impressive collections of talent in the league heading into the 2024 season. After Dallas let Tony Pollard leave in free agency, they tried to hearken back to better days by signing Ezekiel Elliott after the veteran spent one season in New England. Joining Elliott in Dallas’ RB room were veteran holdover Rico Dowdle and second-year player Deuce Vaughn.
Elliott was able to finish as the PPR RB28 during his lone season with the Patriots, so outsiders who had not seen any footage of him in 2023 could be forgiven for believing he still had something left in the tank. But upon digging a little deeper, a ranking outside the top-120 RBs in total FPOE told a different story.
Despite being a sixth-round draft pick in 2023, Vaughn was the type of player everyone wants to cheer for. At 5-feet-5-inches tall and 176 pounds, he was the shortest RB ever drafted and had solid enough production at Kansas State for us to hold out a sliver of hope that he could hang at the NFL level. But with the few opportunities he did get in his rookie season, he was not able to show enough to suggest that he would be completing his underdog story.
Lastly, the team was left with Dowdle. During his time at South Carolina, Dowdle’s backfield dominator rating had declined from 60% in his freshman year to 38% by the time he was a senior. While not running a blistering 40 at the combine, he was able to show that he has the requisite size to lead an NFL backfield, along with enough explosiveness to be a problem.
Dowdle went on to go undrafted in 2020, but was able to hang around in Dallas long enough to finally earn a legitimate shot as Pollard’s primary backup in 2023. Despite getting considerably fewer opportunities than Pollard, Dowdle was able to keep pace with the Cowboys’ starter on a per-touch basis.
He was even able to put up some usable weeks for desperate fantasy managers brave enough to take a shot on him, and ultimately finished the season as the RB32 in total FPOE.
At the start of the 2024 season, Dallas tried to relive the glory days by featuring Elliott. They soon discovered that he was no longer a viable option, and progressively funneled more work to Dowdle with each passing week. Despite some back-and-forth with the rushing attempts, it became evident early on that Dowdle was the superior player in the passing game. He has been the team’s primary pass-catcher since Week 2, and it has not been particularly close.
Dowdle had been effective in a feature role against Pittsburgh in Week 5, only to be out-carried by Elliott the following week. With Elliott clearly not the answer, the Cowboys doubled down on their aging-RB bet by adding Dalvin Cook. Coming out of their Week 7 bye, the old guard had one final shot to claim the Dallas backfield for themselves, as Dowdle missed the game against the 49ers.
With Elliott and Cook once again coming up short, the Cowboys chose to go back to Dowdle in Week 9, and he did not disappoint.
Since his big game against Atlanta, Dowdle has been the clear lead option in Dallas. Outside of two games against the stingy rush defenses of Houston and Philadelphia, he has been able to deliver on his increased opportunities.
Since Week 9, Dowdle has ranked as the PPR RB12. With the Cowboys already having less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs and Dowdle heading to free agency this offseason, Dallas has little reason to stop leaning on him for the rest of the season. CeeDee Lamb is already playing through a serious shoulder injury, so it would be wise for the Cowboys to start lightening their superstar WR’s load to prevent the injury from getting even worse. Outside of Lamb, there are few other options on Dallas’ offense that have shown the potential of Dowdle this season. With that being said, what are the chances that Dowdle continues to provide a spark for fantasy managers in 2024, and can he continue to be an asset for dynasty managers in 2025?
2024 ROS Outlook
In the short term, Dowdle’s potential to help fantasy managers advance into Week 16 is fantastic, with a premier matchup against a woeful Panthers run defense on tap this Sunday.
After this week, things get a little more tricky against Tampa Bay and a Philadelphia run defense that shut Dowdle down in Week 10.
Dowdle is a must-start this week, but becomes more of a FLEX option in Week 16 and Week 17. Team context obviously plays a huge part in the decision. Still, if there are better options available, it may be smart to shy away from Dowdle in the fantasy semifinal and championship weeks. Dowdle gets a slight bump up in PPR leagues, but that should not be enough to cement him into fantasy lineups in bad matchups.
While playing the matchups becomes less important with stars, it is something to monitor with fringe starters. In 2024, Dowdle has been a player who has taken advantage of favorable matchups, with his game against the Commanders being his only PPR RB1 or RB2 performance to come in a negative matchup.
While there is always a chance Dowdle comes through in Week 16 or Week 17, fantasy managers are probably better off looking elsewhere for starting options if they are available.
Dynasty Value
While the section above may feel like an indictment on Dowdle, he has shown enough this season to stake his claim as a valuable NFL RB. With an influx of exciting, young RBs in this year’s draft class, it seems unlikely that Dowdle will be the clear lead back in Dallas if he resigns this offseason. But that is also not to say he will be boxed out of a role on whatever team he finds himself on next season. He could contribute in an RB committee over the next couple of years.
Even though Dowdle’s 2024 season has yet to be concluded (which may skew the results somewhat), when running a similarity search in the RotoViz Screener for RBs who have had similar production in their fourth and fifth seasons, there are enough interesting names to suggest that Dowdle is doing more than just taking advantage of a backfield with few other options.
As an RB who becomes considerably more interesting in PPR leagues, Dowdle will likely be a better option in best-ball formats in 2025. He should be able to provide dynasty managers in managed leagues with a spot start in a favorable matchup, or come through as a zero-RB play should his backfield mates fall to injury. Shawn Siegele’s valuation of a Round 3 rookie pick in the latest update of the RotoViz Triflex rankings is a fair valuation for Dowdle, especially if that pick is likely to come in the mid-to-late portion of the round.
