This week’s Monday Review article focused on small running backs who are currently leaving their mark on the NFL. De’Von Achane certainly qualified, but was left out intentionally in order to focus an entire article on him later in the week.
Coming into the league at 5 feet 9 inches tall and weighing 188 pounds, there was concern about how much of an NFL workload Achane’s body would be able to handle. One thing that wasn’t in question was that he possessed elite speed that could lead to game-changing plays any time he touched the ball.
After finding himself inactive for the first game of his rookie season due to a shoulder injury, he saw minimal work in Week 2. But Week 3 was a different story, as he scored over 50 PPR points on his way to finishing as the overall RB1 for the week. He went on to put together two more consecutive RB1 weeks before heading to IR with a knee injury that continued to linger upon his return.
Despite missing six games, Achane still finished as the PPR RB25 in 2023. His standing was mostly the result of his efficiency, as Achane finished as the overall RB2 in FPOE in his rookie season.
There is no other way to describe Achane than electric during his rookie season. After only averaging a combined 12.7 combined rushing attempts and targets per game in his rookie year, Achane’s potential in an expanded role was mouthwatering for fantasy managers. The biggest question mark was if he could stay healthy.
Of course, Achane was not the only Miami RB that found success in 2023. Raheem Mostert led all RBs in touchdowns and had the first 1,000-yard rushing season of his career, resulting in him finishing the season as the overall PPR RB5.
After the Dolphins went on to draft Jaylen Wright in the fourth round of the 2024 draft, it was fair to wonder if Achane would be stuck in a committee again in his second season.
It did not take long to get our answer, as Achane was featured heavily in the first game of the season and has not looked back.
Achane has been the unquestioned lead back in Miami’s offense this season, while not missing a single game. With his best-case scenario from both a volume and an availability standpoint playing out in 2024, Achane surely must be setting the fantasy football world on fire this season, right?
Well, yes and no. But the points are not coming in the way we would have expected.
2024 Production Profile
There was always a good chance that Achane’s rushing efficiency would take a step in an expanded role, but the amount of inefficiency he has had as a rusher this season is something that no one would have predicted.
One contributing factor to Achane’s decline in efficiency as a runner is likely Miami’s offensive line. Compared to the start of the 2023 season, Terron Armstead is the only starter still in place on the team’s offensive line. Considering that fact, how little of an overall decrease in the line’s effectiveness we have seen this season is actually quite impressive. Unfortunately, the decrease in production is significantly more pronounced in the running game than in the passing game.
Blown Block - Runs | Run Points Earned Per Snap | Blown Block - All Plays | All Points Earn Per Play | All Points Above Average Per Play | All PAR | All WAR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 2.1% | 0.23 | 2.1% | 0.20 | 0.04 | 71 | 22 |
2023 Rank | 6th | 8th | 1st | T-1st | 2nd | 2nd | T-2nd |
2024 | 2.3% | 0.19 | 2.3% | 0.18 | 0.03 | 51 | 1.6 |
2024 Rank | T-26th | 23rd | 6th | T-8th | T-4th | T-4th | T-4th |
Another contributing factor to Achane’s lack of rushing efficiency was Tua Tagovailoa’s stint on IR after suffering a concussion in Week 2. With Achane becoming the primary focus of opposing defenses, he had even less success as a runner than he’s found with Tagovailoa in the lineup.
Thankfully, Achane has found his saving grace this season in the passing game. Averaging 4.8 receptions on 5.3 targets per game, Achane finds himself close to averaging double-digit receiving EP for the season. The volume has Achane ranking second amongst RBs in both targets and receiving yards in 2024.
Achane has also been efficient in the receiving game, with his average of 2.8 FPOE per game as a receiver leading to him pace all RBs in receiving FPOE this season. In fact, it is the only thing that has helped Achane hold on to his standing inside the top-10 RBs in total FPOE.
The backup role behind Achane has fluctuated between Mostert and Wright this season. But neither has had much success, with both currently tied at RB121 in FPOE for the season. With their continued inefficiency, nothing should stand in the way of Achane continuing to earn the majority of the Dolphins’ backfield touches.
ROS Outlook
The Dolphins’ RBs have an overall unfavorable schedule over the rest of the fantasy season, but that isn’t much different than what they have faced all year. With that being said, Achane should continue to get enough volume to help fantasy teams advance through the playoffs.
If fantasy managers are fortunate enough to make it to their league’s championship with Achane on their roster, a date against the Browns does not look promising on the surface. Much of Cleveland’s standing as a defense to avoid for RBs comes from their ability to stop rushers in the backfield, with their 19.4% tackles for loss (first), 28% stuff percentage (first), 39% positive play percentage (t-third), and 7.5% bust percentage (t-fifth) all amongst the top of the league.
But Cleveland is also susceptible to the big play, with their 4.6 rushing yards per attempt (t-23rd), 129 rush yards per game (t-23rd), 5.1% rushing TD percentage (30th), 1.4 rushing TDs per game (28th), 3.0 yards after contact per rush (t-30th), 20.9% evasion percentage (32nd), and 11.0% boom rate (29th) all ranking amongst the worst in the league. With the Browns’ defense looking most vulnerable to a player of Achane’s talents, even the Dolphins’ worst remaining matchup could turn into one of Achane’s best games of the season.
The biggest wart for Miami’s running game will continue to be their offensive line. But with the receiving work Achane has consistently seen this season while functioning as the centerpiece of the Dolphins’ offense, that becomes less of a worry. While Achane’s 2024 breakout has not gone according to how most predicted prior to the season, it has happened nonetheless. And Achane still possesses the explosiveness he displayed in his rookie season (even if we have not seen much of it), so the chances that some of those 2023 fireworks are reignited down the stretch is definitely within his range of outcomes.