The RotoViz-approved Zero RB options had a big week with Chase Brown, Bucky Irving, and Tyrone Tracy. Each member of the trio scored 17-plus points and all rank among the top-15 RBs across the last five contests.
Last week I noted that a lot of the top RBs were relying on efficiency in a way that was certainly reflective of their fantastic performances but was also unsustainable.
Since the beginning of the 2010 season, RBs have produced 50 individual player-seasons with at least 20 PPG (min. 13 games). In only six of those seasons did the RB generate 5.0 FPOE or more. Even in the seasons of 25 points or more, only one (Alvin Kamara’s 2020) featured 5.0 FPOE.
Coming into Week 10, Derrick Henry (8.3 FPOE) and Saquon Barkley (5.7) were both above 5.0. This is how they scored in Week 10.
- Henry: 14.1 points, 12.7 EP, 1.4 FPOE
- Barkley: 8.8 points, 8.6 EP, 0.2 FPOE
That drops Barkley to 15.8/5 and Henry to 13.9/7.6. Both of these players are league winners, and both will continue to post intermittent huge performances. At the same time, Henry is just above David Montgomery (13.2) and Jahmyr Gibbs (13) in EP, and despite the epic nature of the Baltimore offense, should probably be viewed in that light.
In the Zero RB Universe, I’ve consistently mentioned the four elements for Barkley that cut in aggressively different directions.
- Barkley has a favorable remaining schedule.
- Barkley has reemerged as the NFL’s premier run-to-daylight player, and the Eagles’ offense is perfect for facilitating his big-play ability.
- Barkley isn’t evading a lot of tackles, so he remains very reliant on explosive runs. (Among backs with 50-plus carries, Barkley ranks No. 36 in evasion rate and No. 25 in points above average per attempt.)
- Barkley can go long stretches without high-value touches, which also makes him very reliant on those explosive runs.
The outcome is likely to be more hit-and-miss production. In three of Barkley’s last five games he hasn’t even reached the RB2 threshold.
The key element remains scoring, and if you can toss in a few 30-point performances, that’s even better. Barkley’s future scoring levels will probably be closer to his 17.2 PPG from Week 4 to the present, but there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that type of production.
