The Panthers’ Young Passing Game May Offer Some Sneaky Upside Over The Rest of the Season
Image Credit: Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Bryce Young.

If it seems like the lowly Panthers are getting a decent amount of run in this space over recent weeks, it’s because they have been.

First, the team traded Diontae Johnson to the Ravens. Then Carolina not only kept Chuba Hubbard at the trade deadline, but agreed with the running back on a four-year, $33.2 million extension that significantly lessens his own long-term fantasy value, as well as that of Jonathon Brooks.

The moves that the Panthers have made over the past few seasons do not seem to make much sense. Despite the regime change heading into the 2024 season, much of the decision making seems to be the same. Granted, current general manager Dan Morgan was promoted from within after serving as three years as the team’s assistant GM, so watching history repeat itself shouldn’t come as a total shock.

Whether it be the overdrafting, eventual failure, and jettisoning of Jonathan Mingo (but not before spending a first-round pick on his doppelgänger), or using a second-round pick on a workhorse running back only to re-sign their incumbent starter to the position’s sixth-highest contract, the Panthers look like they are out here winging it at this point.

For all of the Panthers’ recent failings, the king’s ransom Carolina paid to move up to the first-overall pick last year to draft Bryce Young is easily at the top of the list. Young’s inability to look like a legitimate NFL quarterback was enough to get him benched after two games this season. Andy Dalton’s first game as starter inspired some hope for the team, but he was not able to keep the momentum going. Still, it took Dalton getting in a car accident and injuring his hand for him to concede the starting job back to Young.

Young has not been great in his past two starts, but he has shown some progress compared to the play we saw from him earlier in his career.

After leading Carolina to their second win of the season, Young has earned another start in Week 10. But head coach Dave Canales stopped short of committing to Young as the team’s starter for the rest of the season.

Sitting at a record of 2-7, the rest of the Panthers’ 2024 season will be used to assess their current roster. The second-year QB will be the primary focus of that assessment, as it is likely the team will have an opportunity to replace Young with one of the top picks in the 2025 draft. But the debate does not begin and end with Young, as Carolina also has multiple young receivers in Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker, and Ja’Tavion Sanders that they will be taking a long look at.

With the running game looking set for the foreseeable future, the majority of the offensive focus will lie on Carolina’s passing game for the duration of 2024. But after constantly being let down over the past two seasons, can we expect them to deliver different results?

So far this season, the Panthers’ 59 plays per 60 minutes sits tied for last in the NFL, but if there is any silver lining it is that the team’s 61% pass rate ranks seventh in the league.

The high pass rate does have something to do with the fact that Carolina generally finds themselves trailing, as their pass rate drops to 55% when they have been tied or are holding a lead. Unsurprisingly, the 163 plays the team has run in those situations currently ranks last in the entire NFL. But for all of the warts on the offensive side of the ball, their defense may be even worse. The Panthers’ defense currently sports a 50% positive play percentage on both running (31st) and passing (t-29th) plays, ranking in the bottom four teams in both situations across the league.

One thing that is close to a certainty is that the Panthers defense will have a difficult time stopping any of their remaining opponents, ensuring Carolina continues to see plenty of pass-heavy game scripts. As depressing as this may be for their fans, it is a positive for fantasy managers.

Over the rest of the season, the Panthers’ QBs (fifth) and TEs (13th) both find themselves advantageous schedules, while the WRs (21st) are the only group that will be seeing a mildly negative string of matchups. The highlights of the Panthers’ remaining schedule are two games against the Buccaneers (one of which comes in fantasy’s championship week), whose defense is one of the NFL’s worst against the pass.

PANTHERS QB SOS

PANTHERS WR SOS

PANTHERS TE SOS

The departure of Johnson has opened up a considerable amount of opportunity for the rest of the Panthers receivers, and the team has wasted no time getting Legette, Coker, and Sanders more involved.

Legette’s scoring looks the best of the trio on the surface due to his two touchdowns since Johnson’s departure. But it is Coker and Sanders that are putting up the yardage totals that have them flirting with a 1,000-yard pace across a 17-game season. David Moore actually bests all three in routes over the past two games, but falls behind them all in PPR production. Legette is garnering the most work, sporting a 30% targets per route run, but it is Coker and Sanders that are making the most of their opportunities.

Part of the reason Coker and Sanders are doing more with less is their ability to create after the catch this season, with Sanders being the biggest standout of the bunch with the ball in his hands.

All three receivers have scored worse with Dalton under center this season than Young, but with Young’s second stint as starter coinciding with the departure of Johnson, it is hard to determine how much of the credit or blame actually lies in the play of either QB. With that being said, neither Panthers signal caller is a viable fantasy option outside of superflex leagues for the remainder of 2024.

Where the real intrigue lies is with their young receiving weapons. As a first-round pick, Legette will be the most likely of the trio to see the most volume over the rest of the season, but Coker and Sanders will see enough action to continue to make noise. If looking for a viable every-week starter, the best bet may be Sanders. The rookie TE was seeing an uptick in opportunity even before Johnson was traded, and has had five targets or more in every game except one since Week 5.

All three of the Panthers’ young receivers could be cheap adds for dynasty managers that could significantly appreciate in value before the beginning of next season, especially if Carolina drafts a QB at the top of the draft. While we should not expect this offense to be consistent every week for the rest of the season, there are enough signs present in their past two games to signal that their young pass catchers are being undervalued.

In the past two games, two of the three have scored enough to make them viable starts. For fantasy managers looking to fill in their starting lineups due to bye weeks or injuries, the Panthers pass catchers may offer some relief from one of the unlikeliest of places.

Please subscribe For Full Access to all RotoViz content and tools!

 

What’s included in your subscription??

  • Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
    • A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
  • Revolutionary Tools
    • Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
  • Groundbreaking Articles
    • RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
  • Weekly Projections
    • Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
  • Expert Rankings
  • And a whole lot more…

Kevin Szafraniec

Full-time Cat Dad, Sneakerhead, Record Collector, LOTR Fanboy, and Jeopardy Enthusiast. Fantasy football writer and beatmaker in my free time. Follow me on X @thecatdadff

The Blitz

Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

Data provided by

© 2021 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.

Welcome Back to RotoViz...

– IF YOU HAVE ISSUES LOGGING IN PLEASE CONTACT ROTOVIZMAIN@GMAIL.COM

– PLEASE NOTE THAT ROTOVIZ USES WORDPRESS FOR ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT. IF RESETTING YOUR PASSWORD YOU MAY BE FOWARDED TO A WORDPRESS PAGE.