In the kickoff to Week 11, Saquon Barkley torched the Commanders’ defense on his way to his fourth 30-plus PPR performance of the 2024 season. For the second time in the past three weeks, Barkley scored two touchdowns and came within two yards of 200 total scrimmage yards in a game.
When Barkley signed with the Eagles this offseason, there were plenty of questions about what the move would mean for him. After bursting onto the scene as the overall PPR RB2 in his rookie season, Barkley was never able to get back to the heights he reached in 2018.
A huge part of Barkley’s production in his debut season came as the result of his 91 receptions on 121 targets. Both marks led all rookies that year, regardless of position, with his reception total tying for fifth-most of any rookie since 2000. But the following offseason, the Giants drafted Daniel Jones, who replaced long-time starter Eli Manning three games into his rookie season. Jones’ ability to run was far from the statuesque play of Manning, resulting in Barkley seeing fewer targets in the passing game.
Not only did the change at QB hurt Barkley’s production, but the overall level of talent on the Giants’ offense did him no favors either. After Barkley’s rookie season, the team ended their tumultuous relationship with star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. by trading him to Cleveland, but were never able to find a suitable replacement. The Giants also tried numerous times to upgrade their offensive line, but the unit consistently ranked among the league’s worst from 2019 through 2023. Add in injuries to Barkley himself — including an ACL tear that kept him out almost the entirety of the 2020 season — and things spiraled quickly after such a promising start to his career.
On the surface things did not look terrible, as Barkley was able to finish as the PPR RB5 and RB13 in 2022 and 2023, respectively. But gone from Barkley’s profile was any semblance of efficiency, as he finished 57th and 42nd among RBs in FPOE per game in the same respective years. The worst part is that 2022 and 2023 were actually a significant improvement for Barkley after finishing with a ranking of 154th in FPOE in 2021.
With all of the factors at play, it was fair to wonder whether Philadelphia was paying for a name or talent when they signed Barkley to his three-year, $38-million contract this summer. As a 27-year-old running back who had shown serious signs of decline over his career, there was no certainty that his efficiency and injury struggles wouldn’t follow him to Philadelphia. Add in the fact that his new QB, Jalen Hurts, was also not very keen on targeting his RBs or leaving them goal-line carries, and the entire situation had the potential to go sideways quickly.
Barkley put the entire NFL on notice out of the gate and has not looked back. While there have been a few bumps along the way, there is no other way to describe Barkley’s season than an undeniable success. Even without his huge Week 11 factored in, Barkley sits at RB2 in PPR points per game and ranks as the overall PPR RB4 for the season.
To this point of the season, Barkley looks to have hit as close to his ceiling outcome as anyone could have hoped for when he signed with the Eagles in March. Let’s take a deeper look into how he was able to accomplish this, and what the prospects are that we see it continue for the rest of the season.
We already know that the Giants offensive line did Barkley no favors in recent years, but just how bad they were deserves to be expanded upon.
| Blown Run Block % | Rank | Run Snaps % | Rank | Run PE Per Snap | Rank | PAR | Rank | WAR | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3.0% | T-29th | 36% | T-25th | 0.134 | 30th | -26 | 32nd | -0.8 | 32nd |
| 2022 | 2.1% | T-17th | 42% | T-12th | 0.233 | 8th | 22 | 21st | 0.7 | T-20th |
| 2021 | 2.3% | T-27th | 36% | T-26th | 0.205 | 20th | -6 | 29th | -0.2 | 29th |
| 2020 | 1.8% | T-16th | 38% | T-17th | 0.193 | 27th | -5 | 29th | -0.1 | 28th |
| 2019 | 2.1% | T-25th | 33% | T-29th | 0.195 | 23rd | 22 | T-21st | 0.7 | T-22nd |
Any sliver of hope that the Giants could salvage a respectable offensive line after showing improvement in 2022 was destroyed in 2023, as the team objectively put together the worst run-blocking group they have had since 2019.[1] For comparison, the Eagles’ offensive line ranked top-three or better in all of blown run block percentage, run PE per snap, PAR, and WAR last season. Philadelphia’s line has actually taken a step back this season, but they are still managing to rank inside the top-10 in all four metrics. Regardless, the blocking Barkley is seeing this season is the best he has seen in years, and perhaps ever.
| Year | Att | Yds/Att | YBCON | YACON | YACON% | HitAtLine% | Stuff% | DesignGap% | BT% | FMT% | EVAS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 171 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 53 | 45 | 18 | 77 | 4.1 | 6 | 10 |
| 2023 | 247 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 70 | 57 | 25 | 68 | 4.9 | 6 | 11 |
| 2022 | 283 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 61 | 42 | 17 | 75 | 5.3 | 8 | 13 |
| 2021 | 162 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 58 | 38 | 21 | 69 | 3.7 | 6 | 10 |
| 2020 | 19 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 85 | 63 | 47 | 68 | 5.3 | 5 | 11 |
| 2019 | 217 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 67 | 41 | 21 | 62 | 11.5 | 7 | 18 |
Barkley has wasted no time taking advantage of the superior blocking, as he is averaging one more yard before contact this season compared to his highest mark in the five years prior.[2] The talent Barkley is now surrounded with in Philadelphia may actually be the biggest catalyst for his career-high in yards per attempt, as his evasion numbers actually rank amongst the lowest of his career.
Barkley has been getting plenty of opportunity on the ground, as he ranks as the RB3 in EP and FPOE as a rusher through Week 10. While he has been able to put up some highlights as a receiver this season, Barkley has not been able to reclaim anything close to the receiving role he had in New York. With a previous career-low of 6.2 EP per game as a receiver, Barkley’s current average of 4.1 EP per game is largely the effect of having an elite rushing QB on the roster.
Not only does Hurts’ rushing ability hurt Barkley’s receiving value, but his ability to score TDs as well. This has never been more evident than on Thursday night when Barkley took the ball down to the one-yard line, only for Hurts to vulture the score on the following play. Sure, Barkley’s eight rushing TDs this season are nice, but it is Hurts’ total of 11 rushing TDs that currently ranks second among all players in the NFL. Of those 11 scores, eight have come from the one-yard line. Barkley is not being completely boxed out near the goal line, as three of his own rushing TDs have come from inside five yards. Still, Barkley’s average of nearly 21 yards per TD run is both a testament to his explosion and the lengths to which he must go to claim scores for himself.
When looking back over both the pro and con cases for Barkley this past offseason, both seemed to have come to fruition. It has become evident how much the Giants’ lack of talent was holding Barkley back. Because of this, we cannot help but feel slightly robbed of multiple years of watching one of the best RB prospects of recent memory producing at the peak of his prime.
But for all of the success Barkley has had this season, it still feels like he is leaving something on the table due to his reduced role in the receiving game and at the goal line. Overall, we shouldn’t be too discouraged with Barkley’s role in the Eagles’ offense, as it should come as no shock after watching Hurts operate over the last few seasons.
With a legitimate shot at finishing the season as the overall PPR RB1, Barkley’s fantasy owners should not be all that concerned either. Philadelphia currently has the second-best schedule for RBs from Week 12 through Week 17, and there looks to be little in the way of stopping Barkley for the remainder of 2024. Even though he has not been able to reach his full potential, Barkley’s move to Philadelphia is proving that playing almost anywhere would have been better for him than returning to the Giants.
