Much of the offseason narrative surrounding the Chargers’ hirings of Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman centered on how they were going to drastically reduce the passing volume in the team’s offense.

During Brandon Staley’s three-year tenure in Los Angeles, the Chargers’ average of 43 passes per 60 minutes was the second-highest in the NFL, while their average of 68 total plays was tied for third.

Prior to being hired as the Chargers’ offensive coordinator this season, Roman previously held the same position with the Ravens from 2019 through 2022. In that span, Baltimore tied for fifth-highest in total plays per 60 minutes, but were last across the entire NFL with a 50% pass rate.

After the Chargers signed J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, who both spent their entire careers in Baltimore, Roman’s past looked like it was destined to repeat itself in Los Angeles.

Even though things looked mostly negative for Herbert’s outlook, one positive aspect of Roman’s offense is that he has not been afraid to use his QBs in the run game. With the production Herbert has shown as a passer early in his career, his athleticism is often overlooked. But with the performance he put up at the combine (including an athletic comp to former 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick), it was looking like Roman would be able to take advantage of Herbert’s ability in the run game.

That is, until a foot injury started to creep up in training camp and was compounded by a high-ankle sprain early in the season.

Chargers QB Justin Herbert on foot injury: “It’s a personal thing you’d like to keep to yourself.”

Says he did not have plantar fasciitis. He says he’s 100%.

Calls it a “buildup” injury: “I couldn’t tell you exactly when it happened.” pic.twitter.com/j2pAdTmO8H

— Alex Insdorf (@alexinsdorf99) September 4, 2024

The downfall of Justin Herbert?

1. Plantar Fasciitis in his right foot (can linger quite a bit of time)

2. Right high-ankle sprain (already reaggravated once)

3. Plays in a run-heavy Harbaugh offense that treats him like Justin Fields, Mark Sanchez and/or Trent Dilfer

4.… pic.twitter.com/W4n5Ff3fm8

— John Frascella (Football) (@NFLFrascella) September 25, 2024

The beginning of the Chargers’ season was highlighted by the unlikely reemergence of Dobbins after multiple years of season-ending lower leg injuries. But the reality that Herbert’s fantasy managers were left to cope with was considerably more depressing. Herbert had never finished below QB5 in expected points per game (EP/GM) in any of his seasons under Staley, but found himself tied as the QB34 in EP/GM heading into the team’s Week 5 bye, running neck-and-neck with Anthony Richardson for dead last among QBs who had played in every game to that point.

It seemed as though the worst-case scenario for Herbert was playing out before our very eyes. But after the bye, things began to slowly get better. After earning a high of 16.0 EP over the first four weeks of the season, Herbert has only failed to eclipse that mark once in the past six games.

As he has been able to distance himself from his foot and ankle injuries, Herbert has also started to add more as a rusher.

Since coming back from the Chargers’ Week 5 bye, Herbert has been the QB6, averaging 22.4 fantasy points per game. During that stretch he has seen a boost to 17.8 EP/GM, nearly five points more than he was seeing over the first four weeks of the season. Still, that mark only ranks 24th among QBs over the last six games. Where Herbert is really making a difference is his efficiency, with his 4.6 FPOE per game (FPOE/GM) since Week 6 ranking fifth among QBs in that timeframe.

After watching Herbert and the Chargers’ passing game come alive in recent weeks, what are the chances we see the production continue for the rest of 2024?

After averaging the third-fewest plays per 60 minutes (57) — including the fewest passing plays (27) — over the first four weeks, the pace of the Chargers’ offense has picked up considerably over their last six games. Since Week 6, the team’s 66 plays per 60 minutes is tied for 14th in the league, with their 36 pass attempts tying for 12th. The increase in pass attempts is also not simply due to an overall increase in volume, as their pass percentage has risen to 55% after sitting at 47% prior to their bye.

There should also be continued optimism that Herbert’s production will continue, as the Chargers face the seventh-best schedule for QBs from Week 12 through Week 17. Conversely, the team’s RBs face the sixth-worst schedule moving forward.

We have also seen Herbert change from an inefficient volume play during the last two seasons under Staley to the highest FPOE ranking of his career this year.

Heading into the season, the Chargers’ pass catchers were often classified as one of the least-talented groups of any team in the league. Headlined by rookie second-round pick Ladd McConkey and a potential bust in former first-rounder Quentin Johnston, there was not much optimism that there would be tons of fantasy value to be had in the team’s receiving corps. But combined with holdover Josh Palmer and free-agent tight-end addition Will Dissly, the Chargers have been able to cobble together a decent collection of weapons for Herbert to work with.

All of the Chargers’ WRs have been efficient with their opportunities this season, but even more so since returning from the team’s bye. McConkey ranks as the PPR WR12 over the past six games, with his 3.2 FPOE/GM coming in 16th at the position. While not seeing the overall volume or production of McConkey, Johnston’s efficiency has been through the roof, coming in eighth among WRs with 4.7 FPOE/GM. Palmer ranks as the PPR WR44 since Week 6, but has made the most of his opportunities, with his 2.5 FPOE/GM ranking 23rd at the position.

While Dissly has not been overly efficient, he does come in ranked as the TE14 over the past six games, including scoring as the TE4 over the last two weeks. With the consistent volume he has been seeing, Dissly has been able to provide fantasy managers with a viable streaming option as the options on the waiver wire grow thin.

Over the rest of the season, the Chargers’ WRs have the second-best schedule at the position, with their TEs coming in at 19th.

CHARGERS WR SOS ROS

CHARGERS TE SOS ROS

Even with the overall outlook of the team’s TE schedule appearing to be unfavorable, there still looks to be spots where Dissly will remain a streaming option, particularly over the next four weeks. Fantasy managers should be starting both Herbert and McConkey with confidence moving forward. Johnston represents a borderline FLEX option after averaging 12.6 PPR points over the past six weeks, with Palmer only being worth a roster spot if either of the WRs ahead of him miss time.

If any fantasy managers are still anchoring to the narratives that surrounded the Chargers through the first four weeks of the season, take it as an opportunity to buy in on pieces of the team’s passing game. While the volume of years past may be gone, the efficiency of the unit has made them better than many people may be giving them credit for.