Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball?
It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by exploring the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that might not show up in the box score every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signal that could indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.
The numbers below obviously can’t fully account for new or recent changes in personnel or injuries — in cases where that matters I’ll point it out. But we can still get a good sense of what to expect from each of these teams. I’ll highlight the most salient features of the matchup below each graphic. The notes this week (and potentially in future weeks) will focus on how the matchups and injury news could impact fantasy performances.
One note on the images below: All rankings and colors assume the offense’s point of a view. So a No. 1 ranking in a defensive metric indicates they are the easiest matchup for opposing offenses to face. Likewise, a No. 32 ranking indicates a team is the most difficult matchup. This makes it much easier to glance at the images and see which matchups are most favorable for the offense.
Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers
- Jonathon Brooks is set to make his debut. Miles Sanders has already been ruled out, so Brooks will split work with Chuba Hubbard.
- That said, no team allows a lower explosive run rate than the Chiefs. Only two allow fewer rushing yards per play, and only two allow fewer rushing yards over expected. The only player who has rushed for more than 58 yards against the Chiefs in 2024 is Lamar Jackson.
- Jalen Coker is questionable, but Adam Thielen making his return. In any case, the Panthers’ passing game faces a difficult test. No team allows less time to throw, and only one team allows less YAC over expected.
- Kareem Hunt was on the injury report to start the week, but has since been removed. Isiah Pacheco, who was previously targeting a return this week, has been ruled out.
- Hunt gets a favorable matchup, with only two teams allowing more EPA per rush than the Panthers.
- The Chiefs shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball through the air against Carolina.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
- Keenan Allen and D’Andre Swift are both questionable. While Swift practiced in full on Friday, Allen didn’t appear on the injury report until Friday, which could be a bad sign for his availability.
- Chicago will be hard pressed to find offensive success against the Vikings defense, especially on the ground. Their best hope, if Allen is out, is for D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze to take advantage of the ample separation the Vikings allow.
- The Vikings could exploit the Bears through the air or in the running game. Both Sam Darnold and Aaron Jones were on the injury report to start the week, but both have since been removed.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
- Tyjae Spears remains in the concussion protocol, which leaves nearly all the rushing work for Tony Pollard. The Texans are the second-easiest matchup in terms of explosive run rate, and attacking them on the ground appears to be Tennessee’s best strategy.
- While Houston’s offensive line has struggled, Tennessee blitzes less than most teams, and they give up a lot of YAC. Nico Collins and Tank Dell should be able to benefit from this situation.
- Joe Mixon remains one of the surprise storylines of the season. He could pick up extra yards before contact against a Titans defense that is solid across the board, save that key weakness.
Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts
- This game has an over/under of 50.5, largely because of the Lions’ explosive passing offense. Amon-Ra St. Brown is coming off a career day in Week 11, but both Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta are capable of putting up huge games.
- The Colts’ passing defense has few glaring weaknesses, and their pass rush has played well, but they are susceptible to explosive plays on the ground, and allow more yards after contact than all but three teams. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery could both be in for big games.
- Indianapolis could struggle to get anything going through the air. The Lions blitz more than any other team, and it has helped them to a No. 2 ranking in passing EPA allowed. Anthony Richardson has completed only 15 of his 42 (35.7%) attempts when facing a blitz so far this season.
- The volume will likely be there for Michael Pittman and Josh Downs — who both popped up on the injury report earlier in the week before being removed — but efficiency could be hard to come by.
- That said, Detroit isn’t much easier to run against. They give up more YBCon than most teams, but they still limit opponent rushing success.
