Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball?
It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by exploring the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that might not show up in the box score every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signal that could indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.
The numbers below obviously can’t fully account for new or recent changes in personnel or injuries — in cases where that matters I’ll point it out. But we can still get a good sense of what to expect from each of these teams. I’ll highlight the most salient features of the matchup below each graphic. I’m changing up the format of the notes from earlier in the season, to deliver the most relevant fantasy insights in a way that might be slightly easier to digest.
One note on the images below: All rankings and colors assume the offense’s point of a view. So a No. 1 ranking in a defensive metric indicates they are the easiest matchup for opposing offenses to face. Likewise, a No. 32 ranking indicates a team is the most difficult matchup. This makes it much easier to glance at the images and see which matchups are most favorable for the offense.
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers
- Despite being a team that ostensibly emphasizes the run, L.A. has been pretty bad at it.
- They are dead last in yards per rushing play, rushing yards over expected, and yards before contact.
- The good news is only six teams allow more YBCon than the Titans.
- The Chargers’ passing matchup is more difficult, which means we’ll likely see them attempt to improve on their near-league-worst rushing metrics.
- J.K. Dobbins is coming off his first game since Week 2 in which he averaged over 3.8 yards per carry. Last week was his only game in that span with positive EPA, and only his second with positive RYOE.
- It sounds like Tyjae Spears will be good to go after missing three straight weeks.
- Of course, he wasn’t that effective prior to missing time. He and Tony Pollard have combined to lead Tennessee to a No. 29 ranking in EPA per rush.
- However, only two teams allow a higher rate of explosive runs or more yards after contact than the Chargers
- YACon is one of Tennessee’s few strengths in the running game.
- Tennessee’s passing matchup is much more difficult, and their passing offense much less effective, so this is likely a week in which they will focus on the ground game.
New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals
- No team allows fewer passing yards per play or fewer average yards of separation than the Jets.
- Despite a strong offensive line, this is a difficult matchup for the Cardinals.
- However, Arizona’s running game has been their engine much of the year.
- They are No. 1 in explosive run rate, No. 3 in YBCon, and No. 4 in RYOE.
- The Jets are generally a harder-than-average matchup, but they do allow more YACon than most teams.
- New York’s strategy could be almost the opposite.
- While Arizona isn’t a difficult team to run against, there are only a few teams who are worse at running the ball than the Jets.
- Only four teams have a higher stuff rate than New York.
- While Arizona isn’t a difficult team to run against, there are only a few teams who are worse at running the ball than the Jets.
- No team has a higher blown block rate in the running game.
- Instead, the Jets will likely test a Cardinals defense that allows more passing EPA than all but four teams.
