Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball?

It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by exploring the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that might not show up in the box score every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signal that could indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.

The numbers below obviously can’t fully account for new or recent changes in personnel or injuries — in cases where that matters I’ll point it out. But we can still get a good sense of what to expect from each of these teams. I’ll highlight the most salient features of the matchup below each graphic. I’m changing up the format of the notes from earlier in the season, to deliver the most relevant fantasy insights in a way that might be slightly easier to digest.

One note on the images below: All rankings and colors assume the offense’s point of a view. So a No. 1 ranking in a defensive metric indicates they are the easiest matchup for opposing offenses to face. Likewise, a No. 32 ranking indicates a team is the most difficult matchup. This makes it much easier to glance at the images and see which matchups are most favorable for the offense.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

• The Commanders enter with one of the toughest passing defenses in the league, which likely means Philadelphia will continue to be the team with the fewest average passing plays per game.
  
  • The Eagles run more than any other team, and only three rushing defenses allow more yards before contact than Washington.
  • Only five teams allow more average rushing yards per play. This game sets up perfectly for Saquon Barkley to maintain his dominance in 2024.
  • The passing game matchup rater mostly agrees that the Eagles’ receivers aren’t worth going out of your way to play.

• That said, most fantasy teams are probably not in a position to bench A.J. Brown, or DeVonta Smith (if he plays). Still, temper expectations.
• If it’s possible, the Eagles have, in some ways, an even stronger passing defense. They are No. 1 in passing yards allowed per play and in passing EPA allowed.
  
  • No team allows less time for opposing QBs to throw.
  • The big difference is that Washington’s passing game has actually been good this season.
    
    • Their offensive line holds off pressure longer than any other team.
    • The Commanders rank No. 4 in yards per play and No. 3 in EPA.
  • Still, Washington’s receiver matchups are even tougher than Philadelphia’s according to the alignment data.

• Yet they will need to be at the top of their game, because the Eagles’ run defense is almost as formidable. Only one team allows fewer rushing yards over expected.
  
  • Brian Robinson is set to suit up after missing the last two weeks. However, Philadelphia has few weaknesses against the run, and won’t make things easy for whichever running back is on the field.