Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball?

It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by exploring the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that might not show up in the box score every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signal that could indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.

The numbers below obviously can’t fully account for new or recent changes in personnel or injuries — in cases where that matters I’ll point it out. But we can still get a good sense of what to expect from each of these teams. I’ll highlight the most salient features of the matchup below each graphic. I’m changing up the format of the notes from earlier in the season, to deliver the most relevant fantasy insights in a way that might be slightly easier to digest.

One note on the images below: All rankings and colors assume the offense’s point of a view. So a No. 1 ranking in a defensive metric indicates they are the easiest matchup for opposing offenses to face. Likewise, a No. 32 ranking indicates a team is the most difficult matchup. This makes it much easier to glance at the images and see which matchups are most favorable for the offense.

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers

• A matchup against Carolina might be the only thing that can save the Giants’ passing offense at this point.
  
  • Darius Slayton is still in the concussion protocol and has been ruled out.
    
    • While he only accounted for three targets last week, he did manage 49 yards.
    • Other receivers will need to take advantage of the Panthers’ 30th-ranked defense in passing yards per play allowed.
• The Panthers are actually good against the run.
  
  • Only seven teams allow a lower explosive run rate.
  • Tyrone Tracy’s breakout rookie season can still continue against Carolina, but it’s not the easiest matchup.
• The Panthers’ passing offense on the other hand faces a difficult test.
  
  • While New York’s pass rush is below average, they are still good at limiting yards per play and EPA.
  • After trading away both Diontae Johnson and Jonathan Mingo, Carolina will be relying on rookies Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker in the passing game. Both have shown promising flashes in 2024.
• That said, the Giants’ rushing defense is atrocious.
  
  • Only one team allows more rushing yards per play, more rushing yards over expected, or more yards before contact.
  • There is a chance we will see Jonathon Brooks’ debut in Munich, though it’s unclear how much work he will get even if he is active.

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears

• It’s not a very big sample, but Caleb Williams’ home/road splits are worth taking a look at.

• The Bears play at home in Week 10, but many aspects of the matchup are unfavorable for 2024’s No. 1 pick.
  
  • New England blitzes often and gets to the quarterback quickly.
    
    • Chicago allows a lot of pressure, and Williams holds the ball a long time.
    • New England forces a lot of tight window throws; Williams hasn’t been forced to make many thus far.
  • While the Patriots’ pass defense is certainly beatable, Chicago’s offense may not be up to the task.
• The Patriots’ rushing defense is also beatable, yet in many ways the Bears’ running game is even worse than their passing game.
  
  • They are below average in every advanced metric, despite facing more light boxes than all but six teams.
• That said, few teams are as incompetent offensively as New England.
  
  • They are dead last in passing yards per play, and only one team is worse at creating EPA or preventing pressure.
  • Meanwhile, only one team is better at limiting opponent EPA than the Bears.
• The Patriots will try to get things going on the ground instead — Chicago is a top-10 matchup in every advanced rushing metric.

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts