After finishing his first season as the rookie WR22, the expectations for Cedric Tillman’s sophomore NFL campaign were practically nonexistent. Already third-at-best on the Browns’ WR depth chart at the start of the offseason (and that is before accounting for David Njoku), Cleveland’s trade for Jerry Jeudy in March pushed Tillman down even further.

There were expectations for the Browns to return to the playoffs again in 2024, but those aspirations were smothered quickly once the season started. Deshaun Watson has never been able to reclaim the form he showed in Houston, and his play further deteriorated this season. Watson’s performances were so bad that he practically rendered the entire Browns passing game useless for fantasy purposes.

Largely due to the ineffectiveness of Watson, the Browns found themselves with a record of 1-5 heading into Week 7. It had been rumored that top wide receiver Amari Cooper was being included in trade talks earlier in the year, and the rumors turned into reality with Cleveland looking like they were headed toward another rebuild.

We’ve agreed to trade for WR Amari Cooper‼️https://t.co/Ilbmxum2sf | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/HUdMM3SaUM

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) October 15, 2024

Early in Cleveland’s first game without Cooper, Watson went down, adding further insult to an already disappointing season.

With their backs firmly against the wall, the Browns actually started to conjure up some semblance of competency. Following Watson’s injury, Dorian Thompson-Robinson came in and started heavily targeting his old high school teammate Tillman. The two have obvious chemistry, and have shown it in previous stints on the field together. Tillman’s moment in the spotlight had the potential to be short-lived after Thompson-Robinson also left Cleveland’s Week 7 game with a hand injury. But once Jameis Winston entered the game, the journeyman quarterback continued to look for Tillman.

Once the final whistle had been blown, Tillman found himself with an 8-81-0 stat line on an impressive 12 targets. The performance was good enough for Tillman to finish as the overall PPR WR10 for the week, his first game finishing higher than a WR3 in his entire career.

Seeing spike weeks from players in volatile situations is nothing new in the NFL, so fans (and fantasy analysts) could be forgiven for being skeptical about the sustainability of Tillman’s performance. Heading into Week 8, Winston was named starter and head coach Kevin Stefanski turned over play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey.

The addition of multiple variables had the potential to change how the offense functioned compared to Week 7, but Tillman still was able to come through with his second WR1 performance in as many weeks.

Even after Tillman’s big game against the Ravens, fantasy managers were still not completely buying in, as he was owned in less than 50% of both ESPN and Yahoo leagues heading into Week 9. In order to squash any remaining doubts, Tillman went out against the Chargers and put up his third WR1 week in a row.

Following the trade of Cooper, Tillman has taken advantage of his increased opportunities to the point where he has become the overall PPR WR1 in the entire NFL since Week 7.

While three games is still a very small sample, the level of play Tillman has shown makes it unlikely that he will be going away. A finish as the overall WR1 over the entirety of the second half of the season does not feel realistic, but Tillman should be a lock for starting lineups in fantasy from here on out.

We have already determined that Tillman should be a staple of fantasy rosters once Cleveland returns from their Week 10 bye. But when trying to determine just how high of a ceiling the second-year WR has in 2024, we need to dive a little deeper into the data.

When running a similarity search for Tillman’s rookie season in the RotoViz Screener, the results are not pretty. The only relevant name that shows up in the 20-player cohort is D.J. Chark (and to a considerably lesser degree: Chris Conley, Austin Pettis, and Jacoby Jones). Even Chark has not been a usable fantasy asset outside of his PPR WR18 finish in his second year, as he has failed to finish higher than a WR5 in any season over the rest of his career.

Even if we discard Tillman’s rookie season as the result of circumstance more so than talent, his prospect profile coming into the league wasn’t overly encouraging either. Despite third-round draft capital and a 37% dominator rating in 2021, Tillman’s comps in the Prospect Box Score Scout as an old prospect with a 20% final-year dominator rating don’t return many players that would have made a second-year breakout likely.

The Prospect Workout Explorer was a little more kind to Tillman, with players like Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, and Jordy Nelson all giving us more hope about the sustainability of Tillman’s recent hot streak.

Doubters may point to the heavy usage of Njoku, Jeudy, and Elijah Moore as a reason that Tillman could see his production start to dip. But the histories of both Stefanski and Dorsey may prove that there will be enough volume for all four receivers. Since Stefanski took over as head coach for the Browns in 2020, Cleveland’s 67 plays per 60 minutes is tied for second across the entire NFL. The Browns are actually exceeding that mark in 2024, averaging 69 plays per 60 minutes, 45 of which are pass attempts.

Tillman’s breakout has not come at the expense of any other Browns receiver, as all four of the team’s top weapons in the passing game have hovered around a 20% target share over the past three games.

There may even be a case to be made that the Browns should lean even further into concentrating their targets to Tillman and Njoku, as they look to be the most explosive and efficient options the offense has following the widespread changes in the Cleveland offense.

Once Cleveland returns from their bye, they face the 11th most difficult schedule for WRs over the rest of the season. We are bound to see the team continue to struggle, but one thing that is for certain is that there should be plenty of passing volume to go around due to game script and the team’s offensive identity.

Tillman is bound to command more defensive attention as the season rolls on, and it seems likely that Njoku will join him in earning a target share somewhere in the mid-20th percentile moving forward. Jeudy and Moore are good enough to keep defenses honest, but it would not surprising to see their target share dip slightly into the range of 15% to 17% for the remainder of the season.

Tillman’s recent production has been a pleasant surprise for Browns fans and fantasy managers alike. He has been able to overcome the odds following an abysmal rookie season, and looks like he may just end up being the biggest underdog story of the 2024 NFL season.