Shawn Siegele breaks down the Zero RB Universe with trade ideas, deep stashes, start/sit thoughts, and much more as we head toward Week 8 of the 2024 fantasy football season.
After a six-week wait, Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall flashed the elite volume/efficiency mix that we’ve been seeking. Both hit exactly 20 EP and both outperformed by 3.0-plus points, although they did in different ways.
Robinson gained 71 yards after contact despite being hit at the line on 10 of his 21 carries. Robinson also ran 19 routes and drew five targets. He turned the three catchable options into 40 yards, aided by three forced missed tackles. The 13 rushing EP was a season high and a number he only eclipsed once as a rookie.
Hall is the receiving god. He came into the week leading the position with 136 routes and 62 air yards. He exited with a 29-route, nine-target, 103-yard day that included 65 yards after contact on four forced missed tackles. To put that in context, only eight other backs have 65 receiving yards after contact total, and only 11 have forced at least four missed tackles as a receiver. Hall now has a 55-yard lead over Alvin Kamara (in second) and a 106-yard lead over Robinson (in fourth. Hall is averaging 8.8 reEP/G, and although his total FPOE (-0.4) is disappointing, his remaining schedule is the second easiest at the position.
Who has the easiest? That would be James Conner, who just sliced and bullied a defense that came in ranking among the elite in EPA per rush and yards over expected allowed.
Conner was credited with an insane 16 evaded tackles (8 broken, 8 FMT) on his way to 101 yards on 19 carries. For a big back with arguably minus athleticism, his combination of vision, agility, and pure want-to is off the charts. Four of the 16 evaded tackles came on his two receptions. That’s how you turn them into 51 yards. Kyler Murray was once again a train wreck as a passer, but his own wheels — the game changed on his 44-yard TD scamper — and Conner’s brilliance helped them pull off the Monday night surprise.
Outside of the continued big-play brilliance from Saquon Barkley (5.2 FPOE per game) and Derrick Henry (8.4 FPOE per game), did we have a back who threatened Conner for best performance of the week?
I’m going to go an unusual route and nominate Joe Mixon. The Texans bell cow came into the week with zero evaded tackles on 52 attempts — I guess in double-checking their charting, SIS actually removed his lone evaded tackle — and tied with Ezekiel Elliott as the only back with 30 or more carries and a 0% evasion rate.
In a single game, Mixon was able to rectify this deficiency by forcing seven missed tackles and breaking two others. Mixon now has 16 FPOE over the last two weeks, and that’s on top of an elite 20.7 EP in Week 7 against the Packers.
If you’re wondering whether the two big games pull Mixon out of the FPOE negative since the start of 2022, the answer is still no.
But if we choose the most favorable stretch of games for Mixon, he’s now averaging 19.1 PPG since getting on a roll in Week 8 last season. That’s 15 games, almost a full season, where he’s scoring like a mid-first-round pick.
I’ve given Mixon a hard time over the years for his underwhelming mix of FPOE and rushing peripherals, but it can also be true that not every back needs to succeed in the same way. Mixon’s smoothness rarely translates into a lot more than is blocked, but juking to no purpose is rarely the answer. Get downhill, exploit small angles, push the pile, and give your team a chance. Mixon almost single-handedly pulled the upset against Green Bay.
Let’s dive a bit deeper into what was an extraordinary RB week.
