Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball?
It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by exploring the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that might not show up in the box score every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signal that could indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.
The numbers below include data from Weeks 1-4 along with the final weeks of 2023. This means that personnel changes won’t be entirely reflected in these numbers — in cases where that matters I’ll point it out. But we can still get a good sense of what to expect from each of these teams. I’ll highlight the most salient features of the matchup below each graphic.
One note on the images below: Starting last week we made an adjustment to how the rankings and color coding is presented. All rankings and colors now assume the offense’s point of a view. So a No. 1 ranking in a defensive metric indicates they are the easiest matchup for opposing offenses to face. Likewise, a No. 32 ranking indicates a team is the most difficult matchup. This makes it much easier to glance at the images and see which matchups are most favorable for the offense.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
This game is currently tied for the highest over/under for the week. From the 49ers’ perspective, this makes sense.
The No. 1 offensive line in terms of time to pressure takes on the No. 32 pass rush in time to pressure. What’s puzzling is that the Cardinals don’t generate pressure but they also don’t force QBs to throw into tight windows. And it gets worse: they don’t play much defense against the run either.
San Francisco’s passing matchup looks a little better, but they should be able to find success in both phases of the game. George Kittle is listed as questionable, but he did get in a limited practice on Friday.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, do not have it so easy. They get a tough passing matchup against a team with few obvious weaknesses.
Passing the ball early and often is still their best bet. They will need to keep pace with San Francisco, and on top of that, running the ball with much success will be difficult.
Only one team is better at limiting explosive runs than the 49ers. Arizona’s explosiveness will need to be based around Marvin Harrison Jr. more than James Conner.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
The Broncos have one of the most stifling pass defenses in the league.
Yet from another view, this matchup is exploitable.
Week 5 Tight End Matchups
Only the Saints’ tight ends get a more favorable matchup according to the Strength of Schedule Streaming tool. These matchup ratings have been predictive in the precise case we’re most interested in.
Brock Bowers’ best NFL game so far came in Week 2 against Baltimore. Denver appears to offer an even more favorable opportunity. Then again, the Passing Game Matchup Rater is skeptical.
In any event, Denver is nearly as good against the run, so Bowers and the receivers might still get a lot of work.
The Raiders aren’t as strong defensively, but Bo Nix has yet to find his stride in the pros.
The third-easiest matchup in terms of average separation could help: if Nix isn’t throwing into so many tight windows, his receivers might actually gain positive yardage. Denver’s rushing matchup might offer even more opportunities, but their offense is arguably worse on the ground.
