Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball?

It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by exploring the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that might not show up in the box score every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signal that could indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.

The numbers below include data from Weeks 1-6, along with the final week of 2023 to ensure that each team has at least six games in the sample. I’ll highlight the most salient features of the matchup below each graphic.

One note on how to read the images below: all rankings and colors assume the offense’s point of a view. So a No. 1 ranking in a defensive metric indicates they are the easiest matchup for opposing offenses to face. Likewise, a No. 32 ranking indicates a team is the most difficult matchup. This makes it much easier to glance at the images and see which matchups are most favorable for the offense.

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars

Drake Maye appears to be an improvement over Jacoby Brissett, and he now gets a matchup that could allow him to turn around the advanced metrics for the Patriots.

While New England is last in yards per play, EPA per pass, and pressure rate allowed, the Jaguars are the easiest matchup in terms of EPA allowed. Only two teams create less pressure and only four take longer to create that pressure.

The other thing that takes pressure off Maye is the fact that New England’s running back shouldn’t have much trouble against Jacksonville either.

The Jaguars are a bottom-four defense in both EPA per rush and yards before contact allowed. Those are both areas in which the Patriots have struggled, but they are above average in rushing yards over expected. Jacksonville allows more RYOE than most teams. Rhamondre Stevenson practiced in full on Friday and has told reporters he expects to play.

The Jaguars might also opt to lean on their running game. They are leading the league in yards after contact, and are No. 5 in rushing yards per play.

Travis Etienne has recorded three limited practices so far this week and is apparently a game-time decision. Even if he is active, Tank Bigsby has been a much better runner. Against a New England defense that allows more RYOE than all but seven teams, either back could have a big day on the ground. The safer bet at this point appears to be Bigsby.

In any event, Jacksonville’s passing matchup looks significantly tougher.

While their offensive line is among the best in the league, it hasn’t yet translated into passing success. Meanwhile, only two teams allow less average separation than the Patriots. New England is a middling defense at best, but the Jaguars’ offensive struggles make this a less than ideal environment for points.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Despite his elite scoring levels, many of Saquon Barkley’s peripherals are fairly weak, but his Week 7 matchup portends a return to his Week 1 heroics.

The Giants allow more yards per play, more yards before contact, and a higher rate of explosive runs than any other team. They are the second-easiest matchup for RYOE. This is lucky for the Eagles as well, as the passing matchup is decidedly worse.

The Giants’ pass defense is surprisingly among the best in the league, with no obvious weakness. Despite that fact, the Giants face a lot of passing plays, and very few rushing plays. At least part of the reason for this is that the Giants’ pass a lot and are reasonably effective when doing so.

They are No. 13 in EPA per pass. Their offensive line gives Daniel Jones just enough time to get the ball out. Against a Philadelphia defense that is in the bottom third of the league in EPA allowed, YAC over expected allowed, passing yards allowed per play, and average separation allowed, New York could have some success. This is especially true with Malik Nabers making his return.

Generally, however, teams would prefer to run the ball against Philadelphia.

The emergence of Tyrone Tracy coupled with Devin Singletary’s return might give New York’s running game more firepower, but they haven’t yet found much success on the ground. That said, only four teams allow more yards after contact than the Eagles, which is the only advanced metric in which the Giants aren’t terrible.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are one of the few remaining undefeated teams, and it’s largely thanks to their defense. They play an aggressive style that disrupts opposing passing attacks. However, if any team is used to dealing with a blitz, it’s Detroit.

No team has faced a blitz more often than the Lions, yet they are the No. 1 team in passing yards per play, EPA per pass, and YACOE. The fact that the Vikings’ blitz often leaves receivers open appears to be something the Lions can take advantage of. In fact, no player who’s averaging at least 6.0 PPR per game has a better matchup than Amon Ra St. Brown, according the Passing Matchup Rater

St. Brown will have to be at his best, because Detroit may have difficulty running the ball. For as good as Minnesota’s pass defense is, their rushing defense is much better.

The Vikings rank No. 1 or No. 2 in nearly every advanced rushing defense metric. Their only weakness is that they do allow a lot of yards after contact. If their 2024 contact profiles are any indication, that would suggest this is more of a David Montgomery (1.5 yards before contact; 2.9 after) game than a Jahmyr Gibbs (3.6 before; 2.3 after) game. However Gibbs averaged 2.9 yards after contact in 2023, matching Montgomery’s current mark.^[1]Montgomery was even better in 2023, averaging 3.0 YACon.

Unlike Detroit, Minnesota will hope to do most of their rushing damage before contact.

Aaron Jones is listed as questionable, but practiced in a limited fashion on both Thursday and Friday. If he can’t play, Ty Chandler and new (again) Viking Cam Akers will split work, with Chandler likely getting the lion’s share.

Neither the rushing matchup nor the passing matchup will be easy for Minnesota.

Yet despite what the advanced team stats indicate, the alignment data gives a positive outlook for the Vikings’ receivers.

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts