Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball?
It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by exploring the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that might not show up in the box score every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signal that could indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.
The numbers below include data from Weeks 1-4 along with the final weeks of 2023. This means that personnel changes won’t be entirely reflected in these numbers — in cases where that matters I’ll point it out. But we can still get a good sense of what to expect from each of these teams. I’ll highlight the most salient features of the matchup below each graphic.
One note on the images below: a couple weeks ago we made an adjustment to how the rankings and color coding is presented. All rankings and colors now assume the offense’s point of a view. So a No. 1 ranking in a defensive metric indicates they are the easiest matchup for opposing offenses to face. Likewise, a No. 32 ranking indicates a team is the most difficult matchup. This makes it much easier to glance at the images and see which matchups are most favorable for the offense.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears
Chicago’s offensive stats are not inspiring, but Caleb Williams’ recent play is only partly accounted for by these numbers. However, he should continue to excel against Jacksonville.
The No. 1 overall pick is coming off a game in which he scored 9.1 fantasy points over expectation, and his second game with at least a 69% completion rate. He’s had positive points earned and points above average in each of the last three games. He’s been increasingly able to engineer big plays while simultaneously limiting extremely negative plays.
Caleb Williams Game Log
| Week | Points Earned | Points Above Avg | Boom% | Bust% |
| 1 | -2.52 | -6.81 | 6.5% | 29.0% |
| 2 | -0.16 | -4.93 | 9.1% | 36.4% |
| 3 | 6.61 | 1.81 | 25.0% | 16.1% |
| 4 | 3.89 | 0.37 | 15.4% | 11.5% |
| 5 | 8.20 | 5.02 | 26.7% | 6.7% |
Against a Jaguars defense that doesn’t generate much pressure and allows more YAC over expected than all but eight teams, Williams and the Bears receivers should be in for a big day.
Meanwhile, despite peripherals that don’t exactly match, the Bears have been one of the stingiest reality defenses in the league.
Only one team allows less EPA per pass. They don’t create a lot of pressure, but when they do they get to the quarterback quickly, which could cause problems for a Jacksonville offensive line that perhaps relies more on Trevor Lawrence’s quick release than it would like.
The Jaguars should have a much easier time running the ball.
Tank Bigsby exploded in Week 5, and appeared to wrest the lead rushing role away from Travis Etienne.
Jaguars Week 5 Rushing Metrics
| Player | Att | Y/A | Y/G | YAC/Att | BT+MT/A | 1st Down % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank Bigsby | 13 | 7.8 | 101.0 | 7.1 | 53.8% | 23.1% |
| Travis Etienne | 6 | 2.8 | 17.0 | 1.2 | 0.0% | 16.7% |
Bigsby also saw his first and only target of the season. Etienne remains a central part of this backfield, not least because he retains the valuable receiving role. We may also see more of the rushing work swing back in his favor in Week 6. Both Bigsby and Etienne are set up to play well in this matchup.
The Bears also get a favorable rushing matchup.
The question is, which version of D’Andre Swift will show up? And will that version be able to hold off a push from Roschon Johnson? And which version of Johnson will show up? Swift was not good in Weeks 1-3, and it looked like Johnson might even overtake him after Week 3. But then the tables turned: Swift’s last two games have been excellent, while Johnson was arguably worse in Week 5 than Swift ever has been in 2024.
| Player | Week | Att | Points Earned | Points Above Avg | Positive% | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D’Andre Swift | 1 | 10 | -2.87 | -3.24 | 40.0% | 10.0% | 30.0% |
| D’Andre Swift | 2 | 14 | -3.13 | -3.55 | 14.3% | 0.0% | 7.1% |
| Roschon Johnson | 3 | 8 | 1.42 | 1.23 | 50.0% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| D’Andre Swift | 3 | 13 | -2.46 | -2.77 | 7.7% | 0.0% | 7.7% |
| D’Andre Swift | 4 | 16 | 1.16 | 0.57 | 43.8% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Roschon Johnson | 4 | 7 | 1.31 | 1.05 | 57.1% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| D’Andre Swift | 5 | 21 | 0.69 | 0.08 | 33.3% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| Roschon Johnson | 5 | 10 | -7.00 | -7.29 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Few matchups are more favorable for passing offenses than the Colts. Yet few matchups are more favorable for passing defenses than the Titans.
Indianapolis allows more yards per passing play than any other team. Tennessee generates fewer yards per play than all but two teams. While the Colts don’t create pressure, the Titans don’t prevent it, despite facing one of the lowest blitz rates in the league. Both teams could improve their stats in this game.
Despite their struggles in the passing game, the Titans should probably look to attack Indianapolis through the air.
The Colts are one of the best teams at limiting rushing yards, especially before contact. The Titans excel after contact — and this is a relative weakness for Indianapolis — but in all other areas they look overmatched.
This is doubly the case because the Titans’ passing defense looks vulnerable in some important ways.
They are good at limiting yardage, but they rarely blitz and rarely create pressure. When they do create pressure, they do it slowly. It’s not a good matchup in general, but it’s a matchup in which the Colts’ QB should have time to find open receivers. It appears Anthony Richardson is likely to start.
Jonathan Taylor is still out, however. Trey Sermon missed practice on Wednesday, but enters Sunday without an injury designation. Unfortunately he now faces a difficult test.
The Colts have been one of the top rushing teams in the league, but the Titans have been one of the top rushing defenses. Sermon will hope to keep up Indy’s impressive explosive run rate, yet Tennessee has been able to limit explosive plays despite stacking the box at the lowest rate in the league.
