Josh Downs was able to put together a promising rookie season despite playing through a lingering knee injury. During training camp this offseason, Downs was getting a ton of positive buzz before suffering a high-ankle sprain knocked him out of the first two weeks of the season.
#Colts HC Shane Steichen on Josh Downs:
“He was explosive Year 1, but you can see he’s taken it to another level in the offseason and, obviously, starting into training camp. He’s making a ton of plays right now” pic.twitter.com/YnYEqLGHnl
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) July 29, 2024
Chris Ballard said you’re sleeping on Josh Downs pic.twitter.com/t9f396hQ3Z
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) July 25, 2024
#Colts OC Jim Bob Cooter on Josh Downs:
“Josh is a really smart player. Those really smart players take advantage of opportunities to make the most of their strengths. Josh is really athletic, too. But, as a Year 1 to Year 2, you learn a lot in the league… Josh is gonna make… pic.twitter.com/sCMZISnMKp
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) July 27, 2024
In Downs’ first game back against the Bears he was able to tie Michael Pittman Jr. for the team lead in targets. In his second game of 2024, Downs led all Colts receivers in PPR points despite Pittman going off with a 6-113-0 stat line.
Oh, and by the way, it looks like that ankle is doing just fine.
Motion inside to a fake shoot to slant route from Josh Downs
Shout out Hunter Renfrow pic.twitter.com/GTXUK40yWq
— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) September 29, 2024
Since Downs has returned, he has gone toe-to-toe with Pittman for the team lead in targets (14), and outright leads the Colts wide receivers in PPR points (27.4), expected points added (7.5), and receptions (11). Downs has also been able to do all of this despite being on the field for only 59.7% of the team’s snaps.
Is Downs’ production simply the result of a small sample size, or should we be buying into a second-year breakout from the Colts’ slot receiver?
First, we must address the elephant in the room.
After the big games from Downs and Pittman, most people — including myself — are projecting them to have a higher ceiling if Joe Flacco is under center. But if Richardson does end up playing, each receiver’s game splits starting at the beginning of 2023 indicate that catching passes from Richardson will negatively affect Pittman far more than Downs. In fact, Downs has actually put up better numbers when Richardson has been under center.
The chemistry between Downs and Richardson is nothing new, as the duo has been intentional about putting in time together ever since they were drafted last year. The relationship has carried over to their second season, and it looks like the connection between the two has been recognized across the organization.
#Colts WR Josh Downs on his evolving relationship/chemistry with QB Anthony Richardson:
“We seeing different plays that it might not be in the playbook, but he’s like, ‘Hey, if you see this, do that.’ And I’m like, ‘I was thinking the same thing.’” pic.twitter.com/lhtb0EP87L
— James Boyd (@RomeovilleKid) July 27, 2024
#Colts QB Anthony Richardson on his chemistry with WR Josh Downs, which is now a bit more unspoken as they enter Year 2:
“With the route, I know we got rules and steps to run it a certain way. But just get open. … I’m gonna get you the ball. I tell that to all the receivers.” pic.twitter.com/pXQqiPNW39
— James Boyd (@RomeovilleKid) August 2, 2024
#Colts’ Shane Steichen on Anthony Richardson’s and Josh Downs’ unspoken chemistry:
“Been around some guys that have played 16 years together and they just kind of look at each other and give a wink like, ‘We know what we’re doing.’ You get to that level, it’s pretty special.” pic.twitter.com/y4bSURoZlR
— James Boyd (@RomeovilleKid) August 2, 2024
While Downs’ finish as the PPR WR44 in his rookie season is not overly impressive on the surface, we must remember that he did not miss any games despite spraining his knee in early OTA’s and re-aggravating it multiple times during the regular season. Even with the injury, when we use the RotoViz Screener to search for players who have had similar rookie seasons, the returns are pretty exciting.
| PLAYER | TEAM | SEAS | PPR | GMS | reRECS | reTRGS | reTRGMS | reYDS | reTDS | reEP | reFPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | SF | 2020 | 184.5 | 12 | 60 | 97 | 0.18 | 748 | 5 | 168.5 | -3.7 |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | 2021 | 178.5 | 16 | 61 | 100 | 0.23 | 875 | 5 | 165.5 | 13 |
| Drake London | ATL | 2022 | 164.6 | 16 | 66 | 108 | 0.29 | 746 | 4 | 187 | -22.4 |
| Diontae Johnson | PIT | 2019 | 160.3 | 16 | 59 | 92 | 0.19 | 672 | 5 | 143.4 | 12.8 |
| DJ Moore | CAR | 2018 | 160.2 | 16 | 55 | 82 | 0.15 | 788 | 2 | 135.3 | 10.5 |
| Jerry Jeudy | DEN | 2020 | 157.6 | 16 | 52 | 113 | 0.21 | 856 | 3 | 179.7 | -22.1 |
| Allen Hurns | JAC | 2014 | 154.7 | 16 | 51 | 97 | 0.18 | 677 | 6 | 150.3 | 4.4 |
| Darnell Mooney | CHI | 2020 | 152.1 | 16 | 61 | 98 | 0.17 | 631 | 4 | 159.6 | -9.5 |
| Josh Downs | IND | 2023 | 149.3 | 16 | 65 | 95 | 0.18 | 723 | 2 | 153.6 | -4.3 |
| George Pickens | PIT | 2022 | 148.3 | 16 | 49 | 79 | 0.15 | 729 | 3 | 127.7 | 12.2 |
| John Brown | ARI | 2014 | 147 | 16 | 48 | 102 | 0.18 | 696 | 5 | 158.1 | -10.5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 2023 | 145.4 | 16 | 60 | 88 | 0.17 | 614 | 4 | 144 | 1.4 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | 2018 | 138.3 | 16 | 42 | 84 | 0.15 | 704 | 4 | 139.7 | -1.3 |
| Jamison Crowder | WAS | 2015 | 135.6 | 16 | 59 | 78 | 0.14 | 604 | 2 | 132.4 | 3 |
| Keelan Cole Sr. | JAC | 2017 | 134.8 | 16 | 42 | 83 | 0.16 | 748 | 3 | 129.3 | 5.5 |
| Antonio Callaway | CLE | 2018 | 134.3 | 16 | 43 | 81 | 0.14 | 586 | 5 | 138.3 | -4.7 |
| Tyler Boyd | CIN | 2016 | 126.1 | 16 | 54 | 81 | 0.15 | 603 | 1 | 133.6 | -13.3 |
| Will Fuller V | HOU | 2016 | 121.7 | 14 | 47 | 92 | 0.16 | 630 | 2 | 148.7 | -26.7 |
| Robby Anderson | NYJ | 2016 | 116.9 | 14 | 42 | 78 | 0.14 | 587 | 2 | 120.2 | -7.5 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | GB | 2018 | 111 | 15 | 38 | 72 | 0.12 | 581 | 2 | 117.4 | -9.3 |
When looking at the 14 players in Downs’ list of comps who played more than 10 games in their second season, the average total for the year was 189.5 PPR points, with eight players scoring more than 200 PPR points.
| PLAYER | TEAM | SEAS | GMS | PPR | reRECS | reTRGS | reTRGMS | reYDS | reTDS | reEP | reFPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | 2022 | 16 | 244.3 | 88 | 128 | 0.27 | 1143 | 7 | 206.8 | 37.5 |
| DJ Moore | CAR | 2019 | 15 | 232.5 | 87 | 135 | 0.22 | 1175 | 4 | 222.7 | 5.8 |
| Allen Hurns | JAC | 2015 | 15 | 227 | 64 | 105 | 0.18 | 1030 | 10 | 179.8 | 47.2 |
| Diontae Johnson | PIT | 2020 | 15 | 223.9 | 88 | 144 | 0.22 | 924 | 7 | 233.2 | -10.8 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | 2019 | 16 | 222.8 | 72 | 126 | 0.26 | 1112 | 6 | 213.7 | 5.5 |
| John Brown | ARI | 2015 | 15 | 209.5 | 65 | 101 | 0.18 | 1003 | 7 | 170.9 | 36.4 |
| George Pickens | PIT | 2023 | 16 | 209.2 | 63 | 107 | 0.23 | 1147 | 5 | 170.4 | 37.3 |
| Robby Anderson | NYJ | 2017 | 16 | 200 | 63 | 114 | 0.23 | 941 | 7 | 186 | 13.1 |
| Darnell Mooney | CHI | 2021 | 16 | 195.1 | 69 | 123 | 0.26 | 929 | 4 | 197.5 | -11.6 |
| Jamison Crowder | WAS | 2016 | 16 | 193.5 | 67 | 99 | 0.17 | 847 | 7 | 169 | 24.7 |
| Drake London | ATL | 2023 | 15 | 164.5 | 65 | 100 | 0.21 | 864 | 2 | 165.7 | -2.3 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | SF | 2021 | 15 | 153.6 | 50 | 78 | 0.17 | 719 | 5 | 132.4 | 19.5 |
| Will Fuller V | HOU | 2017 | 10 | 113.2 | 28 | 50 | 0.1 | 423 | 7 | 83.6 | 28.7 |
| Keelan Cole Sr. | JAC | 2018 | 13 | 93.1 | 38 | 70 | 0.13 | 491 | 1 | 111.5 | -18.4 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | GB | 2019 | 15 | 84.1 | 26 | 57 | 0.1 | 452 | 2 | 92 | -8.8 |
| Jerry Jeudy | DEN | 2021 | 9 | 80 | 36 | 51 | 0.1 | 437 | 0 | 83.5 | -3.8 |
| Tyler Boyd | CIN | 2017 | 10 | 56.5 | 22 | 32 | 0.07 | 225 | 2 | 52.1 | 4.4 |
| Antonio Callaway | CLE | 2019 | 4 | 16.9 | 8 | 15 | 0.03 | 89 | 0 | 27.8 | -10.9 |
With all the variables that are currently in play for Indianapolis, it will be hard to predict how the passing game will function on a week-to-week basis. One thing that may be a solid bet, is Downs producing regardless of who is under center. Even after Pittman’s big performance in Week 4, he is still averaging only 9.3 PPR points per game this season. It is of note that more than half of Pittman’s yards against the Steelers came on two receptions from Richardson before the QB left the game with injury. When Richardson does return, we should expect Pittman’s overall production to pick up, but his consistency may continue to vary.
Heading to Jacksonville in Week 5, Downs has the best matchup of all the Colts receivers.
Over the rest of the season, the Colts WRs have the 13th-hardest strength of schedule. With this in mind, it would be wise to continue to check in with Dave Caban’s weekly Going Deep series, as well as the passing game matchup rater, to see how each Indianapolis receiver matches up with their opponent for the week.
Pittman will most likely continue to get the most talk of being the Colts’ WR1, but it would not be shocking to see Downs be the one to finish the season averaging the most PPR points per game. Even if Richardson does not play in Week 5, he will be back soon. This will be much to the chagrin of most fantasy managers who own pieces of the Colts passing game, but we can use it as a window to buy low on Downs in both redraft and dynasty. After taking into account the statistical history of similar WRs and Downs’ connection with Richardson, the second-year slot man may be one of the sneakiest pickups in all of fantasy this season.
