Welcome to Going Deep! This weekly article will make use of charting data, advanced metrics, and other RotoViz tools — specifically the Passing Game Matchup Rater — to help readers better understand the challenges facing wide receivers and tight ends in the coming week. As my process makes heavy use of the Matchup Rater, I’d highly recommend that you set aside half an hour to watch the tutorial/walkthrough and take a spin through the tool. (Note that for 2024, the “Target Explorer” tab has been removed from the tool.)
Please note, in general, this article will only discuss players averaging 6.0 or more PPR.
This week’s matchup graphics are based on games in 2024 only.
Colts at Texans
The Texan’s defense hasn’t presented wide receivers with a significant challenge in 2024 and is notably favorable against wide alignments. As a result, the Colts’ WRs draw favorable matchup ratings. Interestingly, Josh Downs is used much more frequently in the slot than Michael Pittman or Alec Pierce but draws a stronger matchup rating given the specifics of his alignment tendencies. While it might be tempting to glance at his 12.8 points per game (PPG) and favorable matchup rating and want to force him into lineups, he’s been significantly more productive when playing without Anthony Richardson this season. As a result, Downs isn’t a lock to finish as a WR3 or better but is in the flex conversation as a low-end option.
When the teams met in Week 1, Pierce scored 21.5 PPR and Ashton Dulin posted 12.4 PPR. Pierce’s productivity hasn’t fluctuated as much when playing with or without Richardson and is also a flex candidate for teams scouring for options. As of publishing, Pittman is questionable for the contest. If he plays, he’s in the same boat as his peers.
| Player | GMs | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | YPR | Tgt Shr | AirYards | AY/Tgt | Team % | WOPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Downs | 5 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 48.4 | 0.4 | 8.6 | 0.26 | 39.8 | 5.2 | 0.14 | 0.48 |
| Michael Pittman Jr | 7 | 6.7 | 4 | 48 | 0.3 | 12 | 0.23 | 72.4 | 10.8 | 0.23 | 0.51 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 7 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 15.6 | 0 | 10.9 | 0.13 | 58.3 | 15.1 | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| Alec Pierce | 7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 54.7 | 0.4 | 25.5 | 0.13 | 87.3 | 22.6 | 0.28 | 0.4 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 19.2 | 0 | 12.8 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.15 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 7 | 1.7 | 1 | 14.3 | 0.1 | 14.3 | 0.06 | 15.6 | 9.1 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs should have typical performances, with some room for upside against a favorable Colts’ defense.
| Player | GMs | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | YPR | Tgt Shr | AirYards | AY/Tgt | Team % | WOPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 5 | 9 | 6.4 | 113.4 | 0.6 | 17.7 | 0.24 | 108 | 12 | 0.4 | 0.65 |
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 7.9 | 6 | 59.3 | 0.4 | 9.9 | 0.24 | 64.7 | 8.2 | 0.26 | 0.53 |
| Tank Dell | 6 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 32.3 | 0.2 | 9.7 | 0.17 | 55.3 | 9.8 | 0.23 | 0.42 |
| Dalton Schultz | 7 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 24.4 | 0 | 9 | 0.15 | 36.4 | 7.5 | 0.14 | 0.32 |
| Joe Mixon | 4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 20.8 | 0.2 | 8.3 | 0.12 | -4.2 | -1.2 | -0.02 | 0.17 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 7 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 22.1 | 0.1 | 10.3 | 0.07 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
