Welcome to Going Deep! This weekly article will make use of charting data, advanced metrics, and other RotoViz tools — specifically the Passing Game Matchup Rater — to help readers better understand the challenges facing wide receivers and tight ends in the coming week. As my process makes heavy use of the Matchup Rater, I’d highly recommend that you set aside half an hour to watch the tutorial/walkthrough and take a spin through the tool. (Note that for 2024, the “Target Explorer” tab has been removed from the tool.)
Please note, in general, this article will only discuss players averaging 6.0 or more PPR.
Please refer to Part 1 for matchup graphics.
Jaguars at Bears
Christian Kirk matches up very well with Chicago’s defense and will look to attack the team from the slot, the alignment it is the friendliest to. While Brian Thomas Jr. scores a lower matchup rating, the rookie is off to a phenomenal start to his career and isn’t precluded from having a solid outing. That said, the highest scoring wide receivers against Chicago in recent games haven’t found much success. In fact, Nico Collins and Dontayvion Wicks are the only WRs since Week 16 of last season to finish better than a weekly WR3 when facing Chicago. Further, the defense is holding the position to just 70% of points per game (PPG) and none of its defenders have been easy targets in direct coverage. Brenton Strange and Evan Engram will face an average matchup.
| Player | GMs | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | YPR | Tgt Shr | AirYards | AY/Tgt | Team % | WOPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr | 5 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 79.4 | 0.6 | 18 | 0.22 | 86.6 | 12.7 | 0.29 | 0.53 |
| Christian Kirk | 5 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 51.4 | 0.2 | 12.2 | 0.21 | 89.2 | 13.5 | 0.3 | 0.52 |
| Gabe Davis | 5 | 5 | 2.4 | 31.8 | 0 | 13.2 | 0.16 | 62.8 | 12.6 | 0.21 | 0.39 |
| Travis Etienne | 5 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 18.2 | 0 | 5.7 | 0.14 | 4 | 0.9 | 0.01 | 0.22 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.21 | 30 | 7.5 | 0.15 | 0.42 |
| Brenton Strange | 5 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 24 | 0.4 | 10 | 0.12 | 29.2 | 7.7 | 0.1 | 0.25 |
For the Bears, it will be a much more favorable matchup. In recent games, WRs have recorded more than 10 WR1 or WR2 weeks, and opposing WRs are approximating PPG when facing the team. Additionally, the Jaguars have done little to slow down WRs lined up out wide or in the slot as one of the most favorable opponents for each alignment. As a result, this provides a solid outlook for the team’s trio of WRs. Cole Kmet looks to be in line for an average outing.
| Player | GMs | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | YPR | Tgt Shr | AirYards | AY/Tgt | Team % | WOPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 58.8 | 0.6 | 10.9 | 0.26 | 81.6 | 9.7 | 0.29 | 0.6 |
| Keenan Allen | 3 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 27 | 0 | 8.1 | 0.26 | 52.3 | 7.8 | 0.28 | 0.58 |
| Rome Odunze | 5 | 5.6 | 3 | 41.2 | 0.2 | 13.7 | 0.18 | 79.8 | 14.2 | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| Cole Kmet | 5 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 43.8 | 0.2 | 10.4 | 0.15 | 39.2 | 8.2 | 0.14 | 0.32 |
| DeAndre Carter | 3 | 4 | 2.3 | 20 | 0 | 8.6 | 0.11 | 48 | 12 | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| D’Andre Swift | 5 | 3.8 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 11 | 0.12 | -3.2 | -0.8 | -0.01 | 0.17 |
