Welcome to Going Deep! This weekly article will make use of charting data, advanced metrics, and other RotoViz tools — specifically the Passing Game Matchup Rater — to help readers better understand the challenges facing wide receivers and tight ends in the coming week. As my process makes heavy use of the Matchup Rater, I’d highly recommend that you set aside half an hour to watch the tutorial/walkthrough and take a spin through the tool. (Note that for 2024, the “Target Explorer” tab has been removed from the tool.)
Please note, in general, this article will only discuss players averaging 6.0 or more PPR.
Cardinals at 49ers
San Francisco’s defense has presented a fairly difficult matchup for opposing wide receivers. Since week 14 of 2023, only three WRs have scored more than 20.0 PPR against the team, and just four scored more than 15.0 PPR. Additionally, the position manages only 91% of points per game (PPG) against the team. This shouldn’t slow down Marvin Harrison Jr., but limits the upside of both Greg Dortch and Michael Wilson. The 49ers are allowing more points per game to be scored from the slot, giving Dortch an edge in this one as he runs from the slot more frequently. I wouldn’t force either into lineups this weekend, but they could be considered by teams lacking clear alternatives.
Trey McBride was removed from Arizona’s injury report and is expected to play. San Francisco has been an average opponent for TEs which should allow McBride to approximate PPG with room for a strong performance. He went for 102 yards and 10 receptions when the teams met in Week 15 of 202.
| Player | GMs | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | YPR | Tgt Shr | AirYards | AY/Tgt | Team % | WOPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison Jr | 4 | 7 | 3.8 | 60.8 | 1 | 16.2 | 0.26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.39 |
| Trey McBride | 3 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 40.7 | 0 | 8.7 | 0.24 | 61.7 | 9.2 | 0.23 | 0.51 |
| Greg Dortch | 4 | 5 | 3.8 | 32.8 | 0 | 8.7 | 0.19 | 40 | 8 | 0.17 | 0.4 |
| Michael Wilson | 4 | 5 | 3.5 | 34.5 | 0.2 | 9.9 | 0.19 | 50.5 | 10.1 | 0.21 | 0.43 |
| Elijah Higgins | 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 13.2 | 0.2 | 8.8 | 0.07 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| James Conner | 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 13 | 0 | 8.7 | 0.07 | -5 | -2.9 | -0.02 | 0.08 |
The 49ers’ receivers match up well with the Cardinals despite the team being a limiting defense to the position. The team’s trio of Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and Jauan Jennings all score matchup ratings in the 50s. Samuel scored two touchdowns en route to 21.9 PPR when the teams met last season. However, Amon-Ra St. Brown is the only other receiver to finish as a weekly WR1 against the team since Week 14 of last season. Nonetheless, I feel good about all three approximating PPG this weekend as well as George Kittle.
| Player | GMs | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | YPR | Tgt Shr | AirYards | AY/Tgt | Team % | WOPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel | 3 | 8 | 5.3 | 74 | 0 | 13.9 | 0.26 | 83.3 | 10.4 | 0.26 | 0.58 |
| Jauan Jennings | 4 | 7 | 5.2 | 91 | 0.8 | 17.3 | 0.23 | 85.5 | 12.2 | 0.26 | 0.53 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 4 | 6 | 3.2 | 41.8 | 0 | 12.8 | 0.2 | 72.2 | 12 | 0.22 | 0.45 |
| George Kittle | 3 | 5.7 | 5 | 53.7 | 0.7 | 10.7 | 0.19 | 41 | 7.2 | 0.13 | 0.37 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 19.2 | 0 | 11 | 0.08 | 17.8 | 7.1 | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| Jordan Mason | 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 14.2 | 0 | 9.5 | 0.06 | 10.2 | 5.9 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
