After some up and down performances during his time in Chicago, it looks like it has only taken five games for Darnell Mooney to find a home in Atlanta. Looking back, Mooney had all of the signs of a fifth-year breakout as a 2020 fifth-round draft pick (173rd overall) who changed teams heading into his fifth season.
All the way back in 2017, Shawn Siegele examined WR breakouts and found that fifth-year players changing teams represented the majority of players who broke out in their fifth season. It was also noted that the majority of breakouts in the sample were drafted after Round 3, or not drafted at all. A year later, Blair Andrews dove deeper into the data and came to the same conclusions.
Mooney doesn’t exactly fit the mold, as he already broke out in his second season. But in the two seasons since, he has struggled to score even 100 PPR points (in part due to missing games with injuries).
Things did not appear to be any better in Atlanta after Week 1, as Mooney only scored 2.5 PPR points in his Falcons debut. Since then, he has been on a tear as one of Kirk Cousins’ favorite targets.
After averaging 13.7 PPR points per game (PPR/GM) from Week 2 through Week 4, Mooney went off on Thursday night against the Buccaneers. His night could have been even better, had he secured a catch in the fourth quarter (2:07 mark of the video below) that could have easily gone for a 36-yard touchdown.
Through five games in 2024, Mooney leads the Falcons in aDOT (12.2) and ranks second among Falcons receivers in essentially every other receiving metric. Drake London leads the team with 17.1 PPR/GM and 3.2 expected points added per game (EPA/GM), but Mooney’s 15.0 PPR/GM and 2.9 EPA/GM are not far behind.
After getting off to a hot start, Mooney deserves serious consideration in fantasy lineups moving forward. But will he continue to deliver?
In Week 1, Mooney only earned three targets, but has earned no less than six in any game since.
In Week 2 through Week 4, Mooney’s volume seemed to come at the expense of Kyle Pitts. Over the past two years, the Falcons tight end has been one of the most discouraging players in fantasy, and 2024 was shaping up in a similar fashion. With Cousins only averaging 10.6 PPR/GM and 216 passing yards per game over the first four weeks of the season, the Atlanta passing offense was arguably the most disappointing in the entire league.
All of that changed against Tampa Bay in Week 5, as Cousins scored 34.4 fantasy points while attempting 58 passes. All of the Falcons’ top receivers earned plenty of opportunities, as Atlanta fans and fantasy owners alike rejoiced.
Lost in all of the excitement is the fact that Cousins nearly doubled his average of 29.8 pass attempts from Week 1-4 on Thursday night. While it was nice to see Pitts break out of the slump he has been in all season, he was still out-targeted by slot-receiver Ray-Ray McCloud in the game, although Pitts was able to do more with his opportunities.
Sadly, the game was not without incident, as London left late in the game with what is assumed to be a rib injury.
Drake London is down on the field grabbing at his ribs after this hit pic.twitter.com/fWdSB4iZ0c
— BSGsports (@BSGsportsmedia) October 4, 2024
Heading into Week 5, Mooney was the PPR WR40 on the season, but his standing is sure to take a significant jump after the conclusion of Week 5’s slate of games. Mooney is currently on pace to score 255.0 PPR points on the season, a mark that would have ranked as the WR13 in 2023. While a borderline WR1 finish does seem a bit rich, the connection that Mooney and Cousins have shown to this point is undeniable. With that in mind, projecting Mooney to finish as a borderline WR2 does not seem out-of-line whatsoever.
If London misses time, Mooney should see as many targets as he can handle. While Mooney may not be able to be as efficient as he has been with all of the defensive attention London receives, the added volume should make up for it. If London is able to play through his injury, nothing we have seen suggests that Mooney will not continue operating as the second option in the Falcons’ passing game. This is not great news for Pitts, but it appears that the TE should be more worried about passing McCloud at this point, as Mooney is clearly ahead of both of them.
As one of the rare fifth-year breakout candidates that is actually delivering, fantasy managers should slot Mooney into their FLEX spots with confidence moving forward. Like most WR2s in a low-to-medium volume passing game, his production will probably waver at times over the course of the season. But with what we have seen from him so far in 2024, Mooney looks to have a secure role, and possibly a long-term home, in Atlanta.
