Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball?
It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by exploring the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that might not show up in the box score every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signal that could indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.
The numbers below obviously can’t fully account for new or recent changes in personnel or injuries — in cases where that matters I’ll point it out. But we can still get a good sense of what to expect from each of these teams. I’ll highlight the most salient features of the matchup below each graphic.
One note on the images below: All rankings and colors assume the offense’s point of a view. So a No. 1 ranking in a defensive metric indicates they are the easiest matchup for opposing offenses to face. Likewise, a No. 32 ranking indicates a team is the most difficult matchup. This makes it much easier to glance at the images and see which matchups are most favorable for the offense.
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp is making his return after suffering an injury in Week 2. Puka Nacua is listed as questionable but is expected to make his first appearance since Week 1. As such, the Rams’ offensive numbers largely reflect their absences. Regardless of who they have at wide receiver, this is a difficult matchup.
No team blitzes more than Minnesota, and only five teams create more pressure with their pass rush. The Vikings also do a good job of limiting YAC and total yardage, despite playing relatively loose coverage in the secondary. The Rams’ offense has done a good job of preventing Matthew Stafford from needing to throw into tight coverage, and Minnesota doesn’t seem likely to disrupt that element. However, L.A.’s offensive line lets rushers get to the quarterback quickly — the Vikings could disrupt Stafford’s ability to operate from a clean pocket. Nevertheless, the Rams have some of the easiest WR matchups of the week, according to the Passing Game Matchup Rater.
Whatever the case, Los Angeles will need to rely on Stafford and Kupp (and maybe Nacua) to find success. There is a reason no team has faced more pass attempts than the Vikings.
Minnesota ranks No. 2 in EPA per rush and explosive run rate allowed, and they give up less pre-contact yardage than any team in the league. They are more susceptible to yards after contact, but L.A. is slightly below average at creating yards after contact. Yet despite weak peripherals, the Rams’ rushing attack has been able to generate EPA. That might not come as easy in Week 8.
At least one reason L.A. might not be able to lean on their running game is that they don’t make things particularly difficult for opposing offenses.
The one thing the Rams do well is create pressure against opposing QBs, and that happens to be one of Minnesota’s weaknesses on offense. Only one QB holds the ball longer than Sam Darnold. While L.A. doesn’t get to the QB very quickly, they are able to force tight window throws and create so-called “coverage sacks,” or at least sack opportunities. It’s perhaps for this reason that, despite what appears to be a generally favorable matchup, the alignment data paints a slightly less enthusiastic picture of the outlook for Vikings’ receivers.
That said, the other reason the Vikings’ receivers might not have the best fantasy matchup is that Minnesota might not need to throw that often.
Only two teams have faced more rushing attempts per game, and only two teams have allowed more EPA per rushing attempt. The Rams do a good job of preventing explosive plays, but otherwise allow opponents to pick up yards and find success on the ground. If Minnesota can put up points without taking to the air too much, we could see Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison underperform expectations, even in a matchup that otherwise looks strong.
