Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball?
It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by exploring the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that might not show up in the box score every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signal that could indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.
The numbers below include data from Weeks 1-3 along with the last three weeks of 2023. This means that personnel changes won’t be entirely reflected in these numbers — in cases where that matters I’ll point it out. But we can still get a good sense of what to expect from each of these teams. I’ll highlight the most salient features of the matchup below each graphic.
One note on the images below: Starting last week we made an adjustment to how the rankings and color coding is presented. All rankings and colors now assume the offense’s point of a view. So a No. 1 ranking in a defensive metric indicates they are the easiest matchup for opposing offenses to face. Likewise, a No. 32 ranking indicates a team is the most difficult matchup. This makes it much easier to glance at the images and see which matchups are most favorable for the offense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Few matchups are more difficult than the one Atlanta faces on Thursday night. The Falcons haven’t faced many blitzing teams thus far in 2024, but that changes against Tampa Bay.
Only three teams blitz more often. Only one team gets to opposing QBs quicker, and only one team allows fewer passing yards per play. While the Falcons have been among the best in the league at picking up yards after catch, Tampa Bay has been among the best at limiting such yards. For a variety of reasons, this looks like a game in which you might want to find better options if you drafted Drake London or, especially, Kyle Pitts.
Not least is the fact that the rushing matchup is much more favorable.
The Buccaneers stack the box against rushing plays more than any other team, and have the lowest light-box rate in the league. Although this setup makes them formidable after contact, it hasn’t kept them from giving up the fifth-most yards before contact or the sixth-most yards over expected. As a result, only two teams allow more EPA per rush.
Even a Falcons team that is struggling to turn running plays into positive outcomes should have some success against Tampa Bay. For one thing, only six teams are more explosive on the ground, and only five pick up more yards before contact. Bijan Robinson is hoping for a bounceback game after he managed only 28 yards on the ground against a much tougher New Orleans defense. This matchup might provide him the opportunity.
The only difficulty for Robinson and Co. is that Atlanta’s defensive ineptitude could mean this game is out of hand before they have a chance to establish the run.
The Falcons are the second-easiest matchup in terms of pressure rate and time to throw allowed. They are the fourth-easiest matchup in terms of average separation. Although the Bucs’ offensive line has struggled, and Baker Mayfield has had to throw into tight windows, they get a reprieve on Thursday. Chris Godwin and a resurgent Mike Evans should be able to find space against Atlanta’s weak secondary.
The passing matchup takes some pressure off Tampa Bay’s rushing attack, which has struggled recently, despite a promising start to Bucky Irving’s rookie year. The other thing that takes pressure off the Bucs’ RBs is the Falcons’ defense, which allows the sixth-most EPA per rush and the seventh-most yards before contact.
Before contact yardage isn’t Tampa’s forte, but then, nothing exactly is. They rank around league average in explosive run rate and yards after contact. While the Falcons are good at limiting after contact yards, they allow an explosive run on just over 10% of the attempts they face. That’s not a high percentage, but combined with their before-contact vulnerability and the Bucs’ likely ability to move the ball through the air, this does look like a game in which either Irving or Rachaad White (or both) could find some running lanes.
