People keep asking if I’m back and I haven’t really had an answer. But now, yeah, I’m thinkin’ I’m back.
— John Wick . . . and possibly Mark Andrews
First off, we must start by saying that no animals were harmed in an attempt to coerce Andrews into his recent performances.
Whether it be the lingering effects of injuries, the Ravens’ game scripts, or some combination of circumstances, Andrews looked like a shell of his former self at the start of the 2024 season.
Andrews missed significant time toward the end of 2023 with a fractured fibula and ligament damage in his ankle resulting from a hip-drop tackle. Andrews then missed a significant portion of training camp this year after being involved in a car accident. He was deemed “good-to-go” for the season opener against the Chiefs, but definitely did not look “good” and barely had any “go” to his game.
Fellow tight end Isaiah Likely was the star for the Ravens in Week 1, and almost won the game on a last-second touchdown, if not for his toe landing out of bounds on the reception. In the game, Andrews held a 59 to 53 advantage in snaps, but was out-targeted 12 to two by his younger counterpart.
Likely has flourished when Andrews has missed time, including ranking as the PPR TE5 from Weeks 12-18 last season while Andrews was out. Likely also received plenty of preseason hype this year, and it was fair to wonder if we were witnessing a changing of the guard at TE in Baltimore after Week 1.
A shift to Likely would be somewhat realistic, but from Week 2 through Week 5 it was actually Charlie Kolar who averaged the most PPR points per game (PPR/GM) among all the Ravens’ TEs, as both Likely and Andrews struggled.
Lamar Jackson threw an average of 16.5 pass attempts in Week 3 and Week 4 in run-heavy game scripts. But even in Week 5 when Jackson threw the ball 42 times, Andrews scored the fewest PPR points of the three Baltimore TEs, while falling well behind Likely in both snaps (55 to 43) and routes (32 to 20).
Just when things seemed to be at their most bleak, Andrews finally awoke from his slumber.
Over the past two weeks, Andrews has gone back to looking like his former self. In the games against Washington and Tampa Bay, he has been a TE1 while averaging 17.9 PPR/GM.
With the disappointing state of the TE position in 2024, should we feel safe buying back in on Andrews moving forward, or is it more likely that he comes falling back to earth?
Outside of an outlier year in 2022, Andrews has ranked inside the top-10 TEs in FPOE per game (FPOE/GM) in every year of his career, including three finishes in the top three. In 2024, he is currently the TE8 in FPOE/GM and the PPR TE12 overall.
It could be argued that Andrews may have just been feasting on some good matchups over the past two weeks, and that may be partially true, but not in the way most would think. The Buccaneers are a soft matchup for TEs this season, but the Commanders have been a surprisingly tough defense against the position in 2024. But there are plenty of greener pastures ahead in the strength of schedule streaming app for the Ravens’ TEs after a tough matchup with the Browns in Week 8.
Another promising element of Andrews’ production over the past two games is that he has been able to accomplish it despite Jackson averaging only 24 pass attempts per game. While Andrews’ fantasy managers would prefer it if the Ravens consistently threw the ball 40 times per game, the fact that he has seemed to regain some of his efficiency over the past few weeks is a positive sign that his recent production may continue.
When looking at the Ravens’ past two games, the fly in the ointment for Andrews appears to be the fact that Likely is still seeing the field at a higher rate.
Not only that, but Andrews’ average of 3.1 targets per game (T/GM) in 2024 falls well short of his average from 2019 to 2023 of 7.3 T/GM.
While it is good to see Andrews getting back to his efficient ways, there are considerably more mouths to feed in the Baltimore offense this year compared to years past. Zay Flowers has become the clear top target in the passing game, and we are finally seeing some positive signs from Rashod Bateman. Add in a workhorse running back in Derrick Henry, on top of a perennial-MVP candidate in Jackson, and Baltimore may just have the most loaded offense in the league.
At 29 years old, it’s safe to say that Andrews still has some gas left in the tank at a position where the stars tend to produce well into their 30s. Between Andrews’ recent uptick in efficiency and an advantageous schedule, fantasy managers should feel more comfortable slotting him into lineups than in weeks past. But it’s unlikely that he will be able to reclaim all of the volume that he has grown accustomed to in the Ravens’ offense over the past five years.
With that in mind, it may make more sense for teams with enough depth to bundle Andrews with another player in an attempt to pry away one of the top-tier TEs from a league mate. Andrews has been one of the most efficient TEs in the league over the course of his career, and that should allow him to continue to have some good games this season. But with all the competition for touches in Baltimore, it is more likely that he will finish 2024 as a mid-to-low TE1 than his normal spot among the top tier at the position.