With Uncertainty Looming Over Tua Tagovailoa’s Future, How Far Do Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle Fall?
Image Credit: Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Jaylen Waddle.

It goes without saying that there are many things in life that are more important than football. After Tua Tagovailoa suffered yet another concussion on Thursday night, it may be time for him to hang up his cleats and move on to the next phase of his life.

Tagovailoa’s roles as a father, a husband, a brother, a son, and a friend should far outweigh those of a competitor and a football player. It is not like the potential ramifications of suffering further concussions has been lost on him and his family after a single season without suffering one. There is a very strong possibility Tagovailoa has enough money to take care of his family for the rest of their lives, so he owes it to himself and his family to give them the best quality of life that is possible going forward.

Even if Tagovailoa’s football career stops, the games will not. After Tagovailoa exited the game on Thursday night, Skylar Thompson replaced him in a game that was already well out of reach. Head coach Mike McDaniel has already proclaimed that Thompson is the next man up as Tagovailoa’s future remains uncertain.

Thompson also played in 2022 when Tagovailoa missed time due to concussions. The results were not great.

Of the games listed above from 2022, the most notable are the two games against the Jets — the only two starts Thompson drew during the regular season. In those two games, Thompson had at least 31 attempts in each, but failed to exceed 166 yards passing in either game. Thompson also attempted 21 passes against the Patriots and 13 against the Vikings while splitting time with Teddy Bridgewater, but was never able to finish higher than QB29 in any given week of the 2022 season.

Thompson also drew the start in the Dolphins’ playoff game against the Bills in 2022. In that game he was able to throw for 220 yards and a touchdown, along with two interceptions. While not looking awful on the surface, Thompson was only able to complete 18 of his 45 pass attempts in the game, for an abysmal 40% completion rate.

Unless Thompson has grown exponentially over the course of 2023, it is not advisable to add him to rosters outside of superflex. And even then, best ball formats are preferable so managers do not have to make the cringeworthy decision of actually playing him. But the Dolphins do have multiple star players whose performances are directly influenced by Thompson’s play. With that being said, how big of a hit do the values of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle take while Thompson leads the Dolphins’ offense?

When looking at Thompson’s regular season starts in 2022, it is not surprising that neither Hill nor Waddle did particularly well. When there are only 166 yards at best to go around, it is hard for any receiver to have a good day. In Miami’s playoff loss to the Bills that year, Hill was able to salvage a respectable stat line of 15 targets resulting in seven catches for 69 receiving yards to go along with two carries for five yards. Waddle was not so fortunate, as he pulled in three of his seven targets for 44 receiving yards, on top of one carry for eight yards.

Across Thompson’s three games as starter in 2022, Hill averaged a stat line of 9.0 targets, 5.3 receptions, and 46.3 receiving yards per game. Waddle fared even worse, averaging of 4.3 targets, 3.7 receptions, and 37.0 receiving yards per game. It is fair to believe that another year of seasoning has allowed Thompson to develop somewhat, but probably not by the leaps and bounds necessary to support such high-profile fantasy assets. The best hope fantasy managers have is that the Dolphins can acquire a veteran QB quickly, in hopes that the new acquisition is ready to start as soon as Week 4.

If there is a silver lining to the situation, it looks like De’Von Achane will continue to stay heavily involved in the passing game as long as he remains healthy. In Thompson’s 2022 starts, he targeted the team’s running backs 7.7 times per game on average. In Miami’s first two games of 2024, Achane has earned seven targets in each; catching all of them for 145 receiving yards and a touchdown. With continued usage in the receiving game, Achane could achieve the highly-coveted rushing and receiving EP double-double that creates legendary fantasy seasons for RBs.

 

It will be hard for any QB the Dolphins acquire to replicate the game splits that Tagovailoa has had with his top-two receivers during their time in Miami. On the other side of the coin, things cannot get much worse than they were during Thompson’s starts in 2022. With the Dolphins very much in a window to compete for a playoff spot, the team should aggressively pursue all viable QB options available to them. While there will probably not be any options capable of helping Hill and Waddle produce like they did with Tagovailoa, there will almost certainly be options out there that can surpass Thompson.

Please subscribe For Full Access to all RotoViz content and tools!

 

What’s included in your subscription??

  • Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
    • A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
  • Revolutionary Tools
    • Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
  • Groundbreaking Articles
    • RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
  • Weekly Projections
    • Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
  • Expert Rankings
  • And a whole lot more…

Kevin Szafraniec

Full-time Cat Dad, Sneakerhead, Record Collector, LOTR Fanboy, and Jeopardy Enthusiast. Fantasy football writer and beatmaker in my free time. Follow me on X @thecatdadff

Week 10 Waiver Wire: It’s About Time We Give Hunter Henry His Flowers

We are getting down to the nitty-gritty on the waiver wire, as there are few viable plug-and-play options available in the majority of leagues. One name that does not seem to get enough love is Hunter Henry, as he has been a staple of this article nearly every week of the season despite being a consistent top-10 option all year. For teams looking to solidify…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Week 9 Monday Review: 3 RotoViz Favorites Find Themselves in the Spotlight and Hope to Stay There For the Rest of 2024

When it comes down to it, being a football fan is all about cheering for the players and teams we love. For most people, those allegiances come from where they grow up, or core memories from their childhood while watching football with friends and family. For others like myself, our favorite players are largely determined through fantasy football. The ability to create my own teams…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Week 8 WR Advanced Stats: CeeDee Lamb and Terry McLaurin are Just Two of the Players Whose Arrows are Pointing Way Up for the Rest of the Season

In Week 8, the tight ends got most of the attention from broadcasters and media on National Tight Ends Day, but the wide receiver position is never one to ignore. We saw Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua look good in their first game back from injury, while Tua Tagovailoa’s return lifted the value of the entire Miami offense, providing hope that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Week 10 Waiver Wire: It’s About Time We Give Hunter Henry His Flowers

We are getting down to the nitty-gritty on the waiver wire, as there are few viable plug-and-play options available in the majority of leagues. One name that does not seem to get enough love is Hunter Henry, as he has been a staple of this article nearly every week of the season despite being a consistent top-10 option all year. For teams looking to solidify…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Week 9 Monday Review: 3 RotoViz Favorites Find Themselves in the Spotlight and Hope to Stay There For the Rest of 2024

When it comes down to it, being a football fan is all about cheering for the players and teams we love. For most people, those allegiances come from where they grow up, or core memories from their childhood while watching football with friends and family. For others like myself, our favorite players are largely determined through fantasy football. The ability to create my own teams…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Week 8 WR Advanced Stats: CeeDee Lamb and Terry McLaurin are Just Two of the Players Whose Arrows are Pointing Way Up for the Rest of the Season

In Week 8, the tight ends got most of the attention from broadcasters and media on National Tight Ends Day, but the wide receiver position is never one to ignore. We saw Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua look good in their first game back from injury, while Tua Tagovailoa’s return lifted the value of the entire Miami offense, providing hope that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

The Blitz

Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

Data provided by

© 2021 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.

Welcome Back to RotoViz...

– IF YOU HAVE ISSUES LOGGING IN PLEASE CONTACT ROTOVIZMAIN@GMAIL.COM

– PLEASE NOTE THAT ROTOVIZ USES WORDPRESS FOR ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT. IF RESETTING YOUR PASSWORD YOU MAY BE FOWARDED TO A WORDPRESS PAGE.