Through the first two games of the NFL season, Josh Allen has 371 passing yards total. That breaks down to only 185.5 passing yards per game.

Buffalo’s 263 passing yards per game in 2023 were the team’s lowest since 2019, the season before they acquired Stefon Diggs. After Diggs was traded to Houston this offseason, there was still optimism that the Bills could continue to have an effective passing game. While not boasting any one superstar, there was a “death by a thousand paper cuts” vibe surrounding the Buffalo receiving corps.

Dalton Kincaid — the tight end the Bills selected in the first round of the 2023 draft — began to emerge down the stretch in his rookie season. Khalil Shakir had put up some promising advanced statistics during his first two seasons that pointed to some breakout potential in a larger role. The team signed swiss-army-knife Curtis Samuel to act as a dynamic chess piece. Buffalo selected physical outside receiver Keon Coleman with the first pick of the second round in the 2024 draft. Finally, Mack Hollins and Marquez Valdes-Scantling were brought in as depth pieces who are capable of making big plays.

Even without a top-tier receiving threat, it appeared the Bills did their due diligence in providing Allen with plenty of weapons to succeed.

Then Week 1 happened.

The “death by a thousand paper cuts” thesis did prove to be true, but there didn’t seem to be enough paper cuts to go around. And maybe it wasn’t so much of death as it was a light cough. Coleman led the team in targets, receptions, and yards, while Shakir (13.2 PPR) and Hollins (10.5 PPR) were able to salvage their fantasy days with a touchdown each.

Worst of all, the offense looked extremely stagnant until Allen took it upon himself to start running the ball. Allen’s rushing did open up the passing game some, and coupled with Arizona’s own offensive ineptitude, the Bills were able to come back and win the game.

Kincaid was noticeably uninvolved in Week 1. The Bills were intentional about targeting him early in their Week 2 game against the Dolphins; earning two receptions on the team’s first three plays.

Then, James Cook took over the game. Cook scored three touchdowns in the first half as the Bills scored on four of their five first-half possessions. By the second quarter, the Bills had a comfortable lead and never looked back. Due to this, Buffalo only ended up attempting 19 passes the entire game.

James Cook : 11 carries for 78 yards, 2 TD’s & a 17-yard TD catch (Scored all 3 TD’s in the 1st half) pic.twitter.com/P9cj8PPXgZ

— Lee Harvey (@MusikFan4Life) September 13, 2024

After two games, it is hard what to make of the Bills passing game. We should definitely expect some positive regression, as the Bills will not average under 200 passing yards per game for the entire season. Even when things do pick up, should we expect any of the Buffalo pass catchers to earn enough volume to feel comfortable plugging them into our lineups?

With Kincaid’s first-round pedigree and all of the depth at WR, the TE would be the obvious choice to emerge. But he might not be the correct one.

Dawson Knox did not record a reception in the Bills game against the Dolphins. But he did outscore Kincaid in PPR points in Week 1 despite playing 16 fewer snaps and running 13 fewer routes. Kincaid’s grasp on the team’s TE production is probably not as strong as many (namely myself) believed it to be leading up to the season. While Kincaid will continue to receive more playing time than Knox, I would not be surprised if the elder TE continues to be a thorn in Kincaid’s fantasy production this season. After looking at each player’s range of outcomes heading into the season, Knox could do just enough to limit Kincaid’s ceiling.

The signing of Samuel looked like a direct indictment of the organization’s belief in Shakir. But so far this year, Shakir has doubled up Samuel in snaps (64 to 29), routes (51 to 17), and targets (eight to four) while leading all Bills receivers in PPR points in each of the first two games. Coleman has led the Bills receivers in snaps and routes in each of the team’s first two games, but failed to pull in his only target against the Dolphins.

At this point, the only three Bills pass catchers that are worth rostering are Kincaid, Shakir, and Coleman.

Through two games, it looks like Shakir is capitalizing on the expanded opportunities he is being given. He is worth FLEX consideration in PPR leagues for teams struggling at WR, and could flirt with WR2 status in a role similar to what we saw from Cole Beasley during his time in Buffalo. As the team’s passing volume increases, Shakir could be the primary beneficiary, as it looks like he has gained Allen’s trust. Coleman is worth a spot at the end of benches as we see if he can take advantage of the large amount of time he is seeing on the field.

Kincaid is the trickiest of the three, as teams that roster him probably do not have a better option waiting in the wings. If Kincaid managers were lucky enough to pluck Isaiah Likely off waivers prior to Week 2, the Ravens’ breakout player from Week 1 would be an instant start over Kincaid until the Buffalo TE can show some consistent production. It will probably be hard to move Kincaid in a trade because his value will (hopefully) never be lower. If the opportunity presents itself to move Kincaid in a two-for-one to get an elite TE like Trey McBride, it will probably be a good decision to do so as long as the overall price isn’t too steep. More likely, owners will just have to ride out the storm.

But things are not as bleak as they appear. The Bills passing volume is due for some serious positive regression. Let’s just hope that Kincaid is one of the pieces that rises with it.