Welcome to Going Deep! This weekly article will make use of charting data, advanced metrics, and other RotoViz tools — specifically the Passing Game Matchup Rater — to help readers better understand the challenges facing wide receivers and tight ends in the coming week. As my process makes heavy use of the Matchup Rater, I’d highly recommend that you set aside half an hour to watch the tutorial/walkthrough and take a spin through the tool. (Note that for 2024, the “Target Explorer” tab has been removed from the tool.)
In Part 1, I included matchup graphics and some high-level notes. For Part 2, we’ll dive deeper into specific matchups and players.
Please note, in general this article will only discuss players averaging 6.0 or more PPR.
Carolina at Las Vegas
Carolina hasn’t been the most favorable matchup for opposing wide receivers, but they did allow Quentin Johnston to score two touchdowns en route to 22.1 PPR last week, and Rashid Shaheed posted 16.3 PPR in Week 1. Despite these performances, Carolina has been one of the best defenses at holding WRs below their points per game (PPG) averages and is strong against both slot and outside alignments. Jakobi Meyers and Davante Adams both have below-average matchup ratings this week. While this isn’t much of a concern for Adams, it should give fantasy managers pause about starting Meyers.
Meyers sees usage across the formation and alignments. WRs lining up both in the slot and out wide have been less efficient against Carolina, with wide receivers out wide scoring 0.1 points per target (PPT) less than the league average, and those in the slot scoring 0.3 PPT less than the league average.
Brock Bowers faces a challenging matchup this week but should still see the volume necessary to post another solid performance. While the matchup isn’t favorable on paper, Bowers is already a locked-in starter for fantasy managers.
The Raiders present Carolina’s WRs with a tough matchup overall. However, they have shown some susceptibility to slot receivers, offering some level of optimism for Diontae Johnson and company. Specifically, Adam Thielen, as Carolina’s most frequently used wide receiver in the slot, stands to benefit the most. His matchup rating of 72 is encouraging, but given the Panthers’ offensive struggles — which Andy Dalton is unlikely to improve — neither Thielen nor the rest of the team’s pass catchers can be trusted in fantasy lineups this week.
San Francisco at Los Angeles Rams
Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson will be the main receiving options for Matthew Stafford when the Rams face a San Francisco defense that has been middle-of-the-road in defending WRs. Johnson has the more favorable matchup, with a rating of 58 compared to Robinson’s 51, primarily because Johnson runs more frequently from the slot, where the 49ers have been weaker in coverage. In Week 1, Allen Lazard put up 26.9 PPR against this defense, and in Week 2, Justin Jefferson managed 23.3, while Jalen Nailor posted 14.2. Both Johnson and Robinson are viable flex options in this contest.
The 49ers’ wide receivers are primed for a strong outing, with all scoring matchup ratings in the high 60s or low 70s. The Rams have allowed wide receivers to outscore their PPG averages by 111%, making them one of the most favorable defenses for both slot and wide alignments. In recent games, no team has given up more points to wide alignments.
With Deebo Samuel sitting, you can start Brandon Aiyuk with confidence. Jauan Jennings is a viable flex option. George Kittle is also out, and although the matchup is good, it’s hard to project a TE1 week for any of the backup options.
